London Playbook: Now streaming — Battle of the
spreadsheets — Pounds and ouches
BY ALEX
WICKHAM
May 31,
2022 8:03 am
POLITICO
London Playbook
By ALEX
WICKHAM
DRIVING THE
DAY
NOW
STREAMING: The drip-drip became a trickle, then sometime on Monday afternoon it
turned into a steady stream — or even a runnel, a freshet or a rivulet. That’s
the general consensus of Conservative MPs watching increasing numbers of their
colleagues write letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson’s leadership. With
48 more hours of dangerous clear space before the Platinum Jubilee bank
holidays, Westminster is transfixed by the prospect of the prime minister
facing a vote on his future as soon as next week, or if not then perhaps after
June’s by-elections. The guessing game on the numbers has quickly come to
dominate the conversation on Twitter and in SW1 WhatsApp groups, even as most
of today’s newspapers splash on the half-term travel chaos that is probably top
of many voters’ minds at the moment.
Squeaky bum
time: Sky beancounter Tom Larkin says there are now 27 Tory MPs calling for the
PM to go as soon as possible — that’s up three on Monday, and up 12 since the
Sue Gray report was published last week. There are another 12 Tory MPs
questioning Johnson’s position, up four on Monday. Remember, the threshold of
letters to trigger a confidence vote is 54. It is clear from those figures that
the movement yesterday was significant and worrying for No. 10, if not yet
proof that they are in mortal danger. Ominously for Downing Street, the
Mirror’s Dan Bloom points out that when Theresa May hit her own 48-letter
threshold back in 2018, 27 Tory MPs had publicly declared no confidence in her
before that date.
Who’s
flipped? Monday saw former Attorney General Jeremy Wright go over the top
citing the “lasting damage” caused to the Tory Party by Partygate … young ‘un
Elliot Colburn blamed reports of Downing Street staff being rude to cleaners …
Brexiteer Andrew Bridgen submitted the fourth no-confidence letter in a Tory
leader of his career, surely a party record (h/t John Stevens).
Not quite
official … but giving us a nod and a wink were Johnson foe Tom Tugendhat, who
told us “I have made my position clear to those who need to hear it” … Cities of
London and Westminster MP Nickie Aiken, who helpfully called on Johnson to call
a vote of confidence in himself … and Dan Poulter, who said Johnson’s public
statements on Partygate “lacked credibility.” Larkin’s spreadsheet has more
quotes.
If/when: POLITICO’s
Esther Webber and Annabelle Dickson capture the mood among Tory MPs in their
piece this morning. “Things seem to be moving a bit more quickly than I
thought,” said one former minister. “I spent Saturday doing local events and
was struck by just how overwhelming opinion seems to be that the PM must
resign.” Another MP who is generally supportive of Johnson said of the prospect
of a no-confidence vote: “I feel like it is a case of ‘when’ not ‘if’ and only
ever closer.” A third MP — a former Cabinet minister — who has not yet
submitted a letter said they would do so by the time parliament returned.
Is there a
pattern? There has been talk that a steady drumbeat of letters has been
orchestrated by supporters of leadership hopeful Jeremy Hunt and vengeful
allies of May. Looking through the names of those who’ve gone public since Gray
it’s not hard to see why — it is true that most of them are either in the One
Nation Group of Tory “wets,” or have other similar connections. However it
can’t be said that it’s just a plot from one faction or leadership campaign.
The Bridgen decision shows No. 10 now has a real battle to stem the flow of
letters from multiple fronts, and faces the plausible scenario where the 54
threshold is hit “by accident” rather than due to an orchestrated effort in the
next month. As Conservative Home’s Paul Goodman tells the Sun today: “The
danger for the PM appears to be a drip, drip, drip, from ALL wings of the
party, rather than one organised putsch from one faction.”
Battle of
the spreadsheets: Global Counsel’s Lead U.K. Political Analyst Joe Armitage has
a spreadsheet of his own that is a fascinating indicator of who might be next
to send letters. He lists the 39 Conservative MPs most at risk of losing their
seats to the Lib Dems at the next election, finding that nine have already
submitted letters of no confidence, with many more publicly wavering. By
contrast, Armitage finds that the 60 Tory MPs most at risk to Labour are
generally much more loyal to Johnson. This essential analysis is compelling and
suggests that Johnson’s primary threat currently comes from Lib Dem-facing Tory
MPs — though that could soon change if the Tories lose Wakefield on June 23.
Expect Tory whips to spend the next weeks offering inducements to those on the
Armitage spreadsheets.
What’s No.
10 gonna do about it? Johnson was back into negative ratings and bottom of the
ConHome Cabinet league table yesterday, and the Sun’s Harry Cole has details of
how the PM’s team plans to stop the rot. He reports the PM will do a joint
speech with Chancellor Rishi Sunak on the economy with a focus on cutting
regulation. “Central to the push for growth will be tearing up the EU’s
Solvency II red tape on the insurance market — to allow up to £20 billion to be
invested in infrastructure by freed-up firms. While technical, ministers hope
it could be a major “big bang” for investment in the City,” Cole writes.
And there’s
more: Playbook hears No. 10 thinks winning over “Waitrose woman” is fundamental
to its strategy to keep Johnson afloat. That’s the mythical middle-class female
voter who may not have been a fan of Brexit or gone in for Johnson’s populist
red wall appeal, definitely doesn’t look kindly upon Partygate, and might
usually vote Tory but is now considering the Lib Dems.
Awkward:
Sunak’s local Conservative council leader in North Yorkshire, Carl Les, has
called for Johnson to step down. “I am very disappointed that the strong
majority we had in North Yorkshire has diminished down to a working majority,
but only just, and a lot of the comment we were getting on the doorstep was
about the impact of Partygate,” he was quoted as saying by the Guardian’s Helen
Pidd and Josh Halliday.
What if we
hit 54? All the excitement of letters and streams has caused some Lobby wise
hands to offer a note of caution. In his must-read Sun analysis piece this
morning, Harry Cole writes: “The magic number for Boris is 180 in a confidence
vote. That is 50 per cent plus one of his 359 Tory MPs. A win would put the
leadership question to bed for a year — and likely until after the next
election. And the PM is actually in a stronger position than he looks, mainly
because he has dished out so many jobs to MPs. There are currently 173 assorted
Cabinet members, junior ministers and associated bag-carriers on the Government
‘payroll.’ It is a secret ballot, so some may certainly vote against the PM but
they would be voting themselves out of a job. And despite the overlooked and
over-the-hill gobbing off at every passing TV camera, there are plenty of loyal
backbenchers left — meaning the odds of victory are in No. 10’s favour.”
One …
hundred and eighty! The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar agrees that the maths is “still
in his favour” when it comes to a confidence vote, though notes it is “striking
how many Tory MPs are not publicly backing him, even if they’re not yet sacking
him.” And Bloomberg’s Kitty Donaldson, who is well-connected with the
Conservative Party hierarchy, says: “My understanding is we are not at critical
mass just yet. Senior Tories seem relaxed the numbers aren’t there.”
How will
No. 10 play any vote? The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith and Dominic Penna say all
Tory MPs will be contacted by whips in a lobbying drive if the threshold is
reached. The FT’s Seb Payne quotes a Johnson ally: “Boris’s argument is simple:
he’s never lost a national election … he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019
election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of
winning an election?”
When do we
find out? Probably not this week, as 1922 committee Chair Graham Brady is
unlikely to want to interrupt the Platinum Jubilee. Next week could be a very
busy one in British politics. Alternatively, the hype could be unfulfilled once
again and we may have to wait until after the June by-elections to do it all
again.
TODAY IN
WESTMINSTER
PARLIAMENT:
Not sitting.
BACK IN THE
REAL WORLD: Most of today’s papers splash on the farcical situation at
Britain’s airports as airline bosses come under fire over cuts causing huge
delays for holidaying families during half-term — as ministers risk being on
the receiving end of yet more public anger. The Times leads on the government
blaming airlines for the situation. The Mirror cheerily predicts a “summer of
chaos” with hours-long airport queues apparently to continue for months. The
Express calls it “carnage.” The Metro says “families are sleeping on airport
floors and queuing for up to eight hours.”
FUEL DUTY:
The Mail splashes on a call for ministers to cut fuel duty further to “save us
from the £100 tank of fuel.” Veteran Labour aide Damian McBride responds: “Just
to put this headline in some historical context, the splash headline in The Sun
on the day after Gordon Brown’s March 2000 Budget was ‘£50 to fill a Mondeo.’
And of course, that went on to become the summer of the fuel protests.”
WAR ON
WHITEHALL LATEST: The civil service fast stream will be canceled for a year
under controversial plans being forced through despite opposition from Leveling
Up Secretary Michael Gove, the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith reports. Meanwhile,
BBC Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall has got hold of a letter from Rishi Sunak and No.
10 chief of staff Steve Barclay to Cabinet ministers telling them to plan for a
headcount reduction of 20 percent — that’s some 91,000 jobs.
POUNDS AND
OUCHES: No. 10’s big Jubilee crowdpleaser on imperial measurements is having a
bit of a bumpy landing. The FT’s Jim Pickard quotes British retailers warning
the PM that relabeling products will drive up prices in the middle of the cost
of living crisis. And it’s not just the FT — the Telegraph carries the concerns
of supermarkets that the policy will increase inflation.
AUDIT
REFORMS DITCHED: Ministers are watering down plans for an overhaul of audit and
boardroom rules, the FT’s Jim Pickard, Michael O’Dwyer and Daniel Thomas
report.
CHEQ MATE:
The head housekeeper at Chequers left her post in 2020 following tensions with
Boris and Carrie Johnson, Simon Walters reports in the Times. The story is
disputed by a spokesperson.
TONIGHT:
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries is announcing the winner of the City of
Culture 2025. Tune in to the BBC’s One Show to find out.
WHAT LABOUR
IS TALKING ABOUT: The opposition is calling for the Office for Budget
Responsibility to independently assess whether Rishi Sunak’s cost of living
measures will cause inflation to rise. The Guardian’s Aubrey Allegretti has the
story.
BEERGATE
LATEST: Former Labour Chief Whip Nick Brown says Starmer should stand again for
the Labour leadership if he has to resign over his Durham beer and curry night.
The Mail and Times run Brown’s helpful intervention.
BULLYING:
Tory staffers tell Sky’s Mhari Aurora they have been pressured not to sign a
letter calling for reforms following the Pestminster scandal.
CULTURE
WARS LATEST: “Trans activists” have hounded Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi
off Warwick University campus, according to video posted by the Telegraph.
OOPS: Yet
another top example of the government’s commitment to online security came in
the form of a swiftly deleted Instagram post by Science Minister George Freeman
that appeared to show government papers marked “official, sensitive.” (H/t
Emilio Casalicchio.)
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UKRAINE
UPDATE
EU OIL
DEAL: EU leaders agreed late last night on a deal to impose sanctions on
Russian oil imports, reaching a compromise that placated Hungary and some wary
EU capitals while still effectively banning the bulk of Russian oil … by the
end of the year. European Council President Charles Michel hailed a deal which
he said would cover more than two-thirds of Russian oil imports — but Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán posted on Facebook that Hungary would be “exempt” from
the oil embargo, underlining the level of compromise needed to get the deal
over the line. As per POLITICO’s live blog, Belgian PM Alexander De Croo
confirmed the Czech Republic would also be exempt for 18 months. POLITICO’s
David Herszenhorn, Jacopo Barigazzi and Barbara Moens have the full story.
Elsewhere
in diplomacy: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has set out why he is
opposed to Swedish and Finnish membership of NATO in an article for the
Economist, writing that the two countries have failed to oppose terrorism. He
confirms Turkey will block the countries’ membership bids, and also finds time
to criticize French President Emmanuel Macron for saying NATO was becoming
“brain dead” back in 2019.
DIGEST:
French journalist Frédéric Leclerc-Imhoff was killed in eastern Ukraine after
being struck in the neck by a piece of shrapnel, Macron announced yesterday.
Leclerc-Imhoff worked for TV channel BFMTV … Russian forces have entered the
city of Severodonetsk, as they continue efforts to capture the Donbas region.
The BBC’s Quentin Somerville has a tough to read piece from the ground after
weeks of devastating shelling … Russia “has to lose” and European leaders
should not purse “peace at any cost,” Latvian PM Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš told
POLITICO in an interview at the European Council summit … and the U.S. is close
to sending the powerful MLRS rocket system to Ukraine, though President Joe
Biden said no weapons “that can strike into Russia” will be sent.
STATE OF
THE UNION
LIGHTS GO
OUT AT STORMONT: For the second time this month, the Northern Ireland Assembly
failed Monday to elect a speaker because of DUP opposition. POLITICO’s Irish
correspondent Shawn Pogatchnik texts in that other parties denounced the DUP
during a pre-vote debate that descended into tit-for-tat heckling. But DUP
leaders insisted they wouldn’t ease their obstruction before the U.K.
government publishes a bill to override parts of the Northern Ireland protocol,
a move expected as soon as June 7. One candidate, SDLP MLA Patsy McGlone,
received strong backing in a 53-26 vote, but the nays from all 25 DUP members
meant the speaker’s chair remains unfilled four weeks after the assembly
election.
Dark humor:
As the day’s caretaker speaker, Alan Chambers, announced the failed motion and
prepared to adjourn, the chamber inside the Stormont parliament building was
plunged into darkness. The symbolism wasn’t lost on members, who united briefly
in laughter. When the lights came back on, a befuddled Chambers quipped, “I can
assure you I didn’t touch any buttons!”
ANOTHER
INDY TOUR: Scottish Constitution and External Affairs Secretary Angus Robertson
is in Brussels today, as the SNP continues efforts to make friends and curry
favor in Europe. In a series of meetings with MEPs, diplomats and officials
Robertson will be talking up the value of Scotland’s relationship with the EU —
while also making it plain the Scottish government opposes London’s approach to
the NI protocol, which Playbook suspects may help the SNP with the
friend-making part of the plan. “We are in the midst of a cost-of-living
crisis, so for the U.K. Government to threaten to breach an international
treaty which could spark a disastrous trade war is folly in the extreme,”
Robertson said in pre-released remarks.
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