OPINION
The end of the Budapest–Warsaw axis
The war in Ukraine is redrawing the dynamics of
Central and Eastern Europe.
BY WOJCIECH
PRZYBYLSKI
April 2,
2022 4:02 am
Wojciech
Przybylski is the editor in chief of Visegrad Insight and is Europe’s Futures
Fellow at the Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna.
The war in
Ukraine has cracked the foundations of the long-standing Polish-Hungarian
political friendship.
With Warsaw
leading the charge in Europe against Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression, and
Budapest doing its best not to pick a side between the West and the Russian
president, the once like-minded governments have found themselves on opposite
sides of one of the worst crises in recent memory.
Since the
ascension of the conservative Law and Justice party in Poland in 2015,
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has made common cause with the government
in Warsaw. With both under fire for their attacks on the media and judiciary,
they formed an ideological bloc — backing each other when Brussels or other
European capitals accused them of democratic backsliding.
Together
with the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Poland and Hungary had formed what became
known as the Visegrád Group of Central European countries, which led to their
joint accession to NATO and the EU. But Orbàn hijacked this agenda in 2014,
becoming its confrontational ringleader, especially on the divisive subject of
migration.
But even
though one of the things these countries shared was a history of repression by
Russia, Orbàn made no bones about cozying up to Moscow. Putin has given Orbán
the cheapest gas prices in Europe, special loans to fund the expansion project
for Hungary’s Paks II nuclear power plant and installed Russia’s International
Investment Bank in Budapest.
When it
comes to Putin, favors like that do not come for free. In return for Russia’s
support, the Orbán government orchestrated its official media to follow the
Kremlin’s narrative so closely that Moscow’s main propaganda channels never
even needed to expand into Hungary. Budapest also became an ally inside the EU
for Putin, and other anti-democratic forces like China, playing a blocking role
in efforts to stand up to them.
While this
pattern of behavior had attracted notice before the war in Ukraine, Putin’s
aggression has now made it impossible to ignore — even for Orbàn’s allies in
Warsaw. Following a visit to Poland by U.S. President Joe Biden last week, the
country’s President Andrzej Duda gave an interview to the main independent TV
channel, criticizing the Hungarian leader for denying Ukraine meaningful
support.
Just a week
earlier, the three right-wing prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland and
Slovenia had all gone to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
literally distancing themselves from Hungarian leadership.
Yet Orbán
continues to stand his ground. When Zelenskyy recorded a direct video appeal in
which he reminded the Hungarian leader of the massacre of Jews carried out on
the Danube riverbank during World War II, the response from Budapest was to
belittle his words simply as those of a former comedian — and to accuse the
government in Kyiv of meddling in Hungarian politics.
Hungarians
are now set to vote in a parliamentary election on Sunday, with polls
predicting a victory for Orbán. Although the opposition has united behind the conservative
candidate Péter Marki-Zay, unfair electoral tactics, including gerrymandering,
control over the media and smear campaigns, have left them trailing behind the
Hungarian prime minister’s Fidesz party.
These are
not tactics the Law and Justice party would usually mind; the two governments
have happily shared know-how when it comes to tamping down democratic opposition.
But the fact that Orbán is likely to be reelected on April 3 means a majority
of Hungarians will have embraced a political agenda that openly shadows
Russia’s — no small thing for a country like Poland that sees Moscow as the
greatest threat to its security.
Whatever
the outcome of the Hungarian election, this will have lasting repercussions in
Central Europe. A victory by Orbán will drive the wedge deeper between Poland
and Hungary, providing the EU with an opening to address the growing democratic
deficit in both countries.
Even a
victory by the opposition, an unlikely prospect, would not necessarily mend the
relationship, as the new pro-EU government would likely seize the moment for
democratic reforms, leaving its old ally alone in the rule of law spat with the
EU.
In Hungary,
Márki-Zay has painted the choice voters will make as between Russia and the
West, a slogan that rings ever more true. Whatever their decision, however, the
dynamics of Central and Eastern Europe will not remain the same.
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