OPINION
PAUL
KRUGMAN
America, Again the Arsenal of Democracy
April 28,
2022
Credit...Lynsey
Addario for The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/opinion/russia-ukraine-biden-aid.html
Paul
Krugman
By Paul
Krugman
Opinion
Columnist
When Russia
invaded Ukraine, the idea that it might lose seemed far-fetched. Vladimir Putin
appeared to have a powerful, modernized army, supported by a defense budget a
dozen times larger than Ukraine’s. You didn’t have to buy into Ted Cruz-style
fantasies about the prowess of a military that wasn’t “woke” and “emasculated”
to expect a quick Russian battlefield victory.
And even
after Ukraine’s miraculous defeat of Russia’s initial attack, one had to wonder
about the longer-term prospects. Before the war, Russia’s economy was about
eight times bigger than Ukraine’s; despite the toll that sanctions are taking
on Russian production, the destruction in Ukraine wrought by the invasion
probably means that the gap is even bigger now. So you might have expected Russia
to eventually win a battle of attrition through sheer weight of resources.
But that
isn’t what seems to be happening. Nobody can be sure about the extent to which
Putin himself understands how the war is going; are his terrified officials
willing to tell him the truth? But the way Russia is lashing out, with dire but
vague threats against the West and self-destructive tantrums like Wednesday’s
cutoff of natural gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria, suggests that at least
somebody in Moscow is worried that time is not on Russia’s side. And U.S.
officials are beginning to talk optimistically, not just about holding Russia
off, but about outright Ukrainian victory.
How can
this be possible? The answer is that America, while not directly engaged in
combat, is once again doing what it did in the year before Pearl Harbor: We,
with help from our allies, are serving as the “arsenal of democracy,” giving
the defenders of freedom the material means to keep fighting.
For those
who aren’t familiar with this history: Britain in 1940, like Ukraine in 2022,
had unexpected success against a seemingly unstoppable enemy, as the Royal Air
Force defeated the Luftwaffe’s attempt to achieve air superiority, a necessary
precondition for invasion. Nonetheless, by late 1940 the British were in dire
straits: Their war effort required huge imports, including both military
hardware and essentials like food and oil, and they were running out of money.
Franklin
Delano Roosevelt responded with the Lend-Lease Act, which made it possible to
transfer large quantities of arms and food to the beleaguered British. This aid
wasn’t enough to turn the tide, but it gave Winston Churchill the resources he
needed to hang on, which eventually set the stage for Allied victory.
Now
Lend-Lease has been revived, and large-scale military aid is flowing to
Ukraine, not just from the United States but also from many of our allies.
Thanks to
this aid, the arithmetic of attrition is actually working strongly against
Putin. Russia’s economy may be much bigger than Ukraine’s, but it’s small
compared with the American economy, let alone the combined economies of the
Western allies. And with its limited economic base, Russia doesn’t appear to
have the capacity to replace its battlefield losses; Western experts believe,
for example, that the fighting in Ukraine so far has cost Russia two years’
worth of tank production.
Ukraine’s
army, by contrast, is getting better equipped, with ever more heavy weapons, by
the day. Assuming Congress agrees to President Biden’s request for an
additional $33 billion in aid — a sum we can easily afford — cumulative Western
support for Ukraine will soon come close to Russia’s annual military spending.
In other
words, as I said, time appears to be on Ukraine’s side. Unless the Russians can
pull off the kind of dramatic battlefield success that has eluded them so far —
such as a blitzkrieg-style assault that encircles a large part of Ukraine’s
forces — and do it very soon, the balance of power seems set to keep shifting
in Ukraine’s favor.
And let’s
be clear about two things.
First, if
Ukraine really does win, it will be a triumph for the forces of freedom
everywhere. Would-be aggressors and war criminals will be given pause. Western
enemies of democracy, many of whom were huge Putin fanboys just the other day,
will have been given an object lesson in the difference between macho posturing
and true strength.
Second,
while credit for this victory, if it materializes, will, of course, go above
all to the Ukrainians themselves, this wouldn’t have been possible without
brave, effective leadership in some (if, alas, not all) Western nations.
Whatever
else you may say about Boris Johnson, Britain has been a rock in this crisis. Poland
and other Eastern European nations have risen to the occasion, defying Russian
threats. And Joe Biden has done an incredible job, holding the Western alliance
together while supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs.
Previous
U.S. presidents have given stirring speeches about freedom: “Tear down this
wall,” “Ich bin ein Berliner.” And it’s good that they have. But Biden has
arguably done more to defend freedom, in substantive ways that go beyond mere
words, than any president since Harry Truman.
I wonder
whether and when he’ll get the credit he deserves.
Paul
Krugman has been an Opinion columnist since 2000 and is also a distinguished
professor at the City University of New York Graduate Center. He won the 2008
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on international trade
and economic geography. @PaulKrugman
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