What the UN’s new climate warnings mean for Europe

What the UN’s new climate warnings mean for Europe

 

Continent will see more heat waves and floods even if world meets 1.5 degree goal, according to new report.

Disasters like the deadly floods seen in Germany and Belgium this summer will become more common |

 

BY ZIA WEISE

August 9, 2021 6:10 pm

https://www.politico.eu/article/ipcc-climate-change-warnings-europe/

 

Europeans will have to get used to floods and fires, with extreme weather events likely to increase in frequency and intensity, the world's top scientists warned.

 

In a major report on the state of climate science released Monday, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said human activity is driving "unprecedented" changes to the planet's climate, including some — such as sea-level rise — that are "irreversible" for hundreds or thousands of years.

 

But global warming won't look the same everywhere, and thanks to advances in climate modeling, the IPCC's assessment includes detailed projections of how climate change will affect different regions.

 

Here's what the IPCC's report says about Europe.

 

Fires and heatwaves

Scientists expect temperatures in Europe to rise faster than the global average.

 

Across the Continent, the frequency and intensity of heat waves has already increased and this is expected to continue under any global warming scenario. With 2 degrees Celsius warming, extreme heat would exceed “critical thresholds” for human health, agriculture and ecosystems more frequently.

 

Wildfires like those seen in Southern Europe over the past week are likely to become more frequent occurrence. Scientists have high confidence that fire weather conditions will increase in the Mediterranean region at 2 degrees Celsius or more; they have medium confidence that Eastern Europe would also see more fire weather.

 

The authors also underscored that the temperature trend in Europe cannot be explained without the human factor, with the IPCC saying it was "unequivocal" that humans are driving climate change.

 

Cities worldwide will be hit hard by future heat waves as urban areas tend to be warmer than surrounding rural regions.

 

"Large implications are expected from the combination of future urban development and more frequent occurrence of extreme climate events, such as heatwaves, with more hot days and warm nights adding to heat stress in cities," the IPCC noted.

 

Floods and droughts

Disasters like the deadly floods seen in Germany and Belgium this summer will become more common.

 

Extreme rainfall and related flooding events are expected to increase at even the lowest expected levels of global warming — anything exceeding the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius — in all European regions except the Mediterranean.

 

In Northern Europe, scientists have already observed an increase in rain-related flooding that can be "attributed to human influence." (This summer's extreme weather events were too recent to be included in the report.) Western and Central Europe are also likely to experience more river floods.

 

The Mediterranean, meanwhile, is expected to see more droughts at global warming of 2 degrees Celsius or more, as is Western and Central Europe.

 

“The newly assessed science is clear that without rapid and sustained cuts in human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, water cycle extremes will continue to intensify with future increases in global surface temperature, along with more severe associated flooding and drought events," said Richard Allan, lead author on the report's chapter on water cycle changes.

 

Svenja Schulze, Germany's environment minister, said the IPCC report made clear that "we can no longer avoid many of the consequences of climate change," pointing to the floods and persistent drought in Germany as well as recent fires and heat waves in Southern Europe and the United States.

 

Rising sea levels and melting glaciers

No matter the global warming scenario, sea levels will rise everywhere in Europe except the Baltic Sea and are likely to continue to climb beyond the year 2100.

 

"Extreme sea-level events will become more frequent and more intense, leading to more coastal flooding," according to the IPCC, which also warns that once-in-a-century events could happen every year by the end of the century.

 

That also means beaches are under threat: Europe's sandy coasts will see their shorelines retreat in the coming decades.

 

Meanwhile, cold days will become less common in Europe under all emissions scenarios, and the melting of glaciers, permafrost and snow cover will continue.

 

"Global mean sea level will continue to rise for thousands of years, even if future CO2 emissions are reduced to net zero and global warming halted, as excess energy due to past emissions continues to propagate into the deep ocean and as glaciers and ice sheets continue to melt," the IPCC wrote.

 

Scientists say it's very likely that the Arctic has warmed at twice the global rate over the past 50 years and that it's "virtually certain" temperatures in that region will rise at a faster pace this century.

 

Under all warming scenarios, the Arctic is projected "to reach practically ice-free conditions at its summer minimum" at least once before the mid-century mark.

 

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