FRENCH
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Will France’s Yellow Vests come back to haunt
Macron on election day?
Issued on:
01/04/2022 - 21:10
Text by:
Benjamin DODMAN
The most potent protest movement in recent French
history, the Yellow Vest uprising looked at one point like it might bring a
premature end to Emmanuel Macron’s presidency. More than three years after it
was smothered, its politicised remnants are counting on their ballots to finish
the job.
France’s
upcoming presidential election has been described as the least suspenseful in
decades, a lopsided contest in which Macron is widely expected to prevail over
a motley crew of challengers rejected by a majority of voters.
It’s a
prospect 56-year-old Jérôme Batret finds hard to stomach, more than three years
after the farmer from rural Auvergne first donned a “yellow vest” in protest at
Macron’s government – joining an unconventional insurgency that caught Paris
elites napping, rattling the government, baffling commentators, and eventually
inspiring copy-cat protests around the world.
Named after
the now-famous fluorescent waistcoats that are mandatory in French cars, the
Gilets jaunes (Yellow Vests) staged more than 60 consecutive weeks of protests
against economic hardship, mounting inequality and a discredited political
establishment. They manned roundabouts across the country night and day, took
to the streets of towns and cities on every Saturday, and at their peak in
December 2018 even stormed the Arc de Triomphe in central Paris, amid scenes of
chaos not witnessed since May 1968.
On the day
a sea of yellow swarmed the Champs-Elysées, protesters in Batret’s usually
tranquil hometown of Le Puy-en-Velay set fire to the local police prefecture
with a molotov cocktail. When the French president paid a secretive visit days
later to offer shaken officers his support, his vehicle was chased away by
angry protesters shouting “Tous pourris” (You’re all corrupt) and “Macron
resign”.
Batret was
among the very first Gilets jaunes, manning a nearby roundabout non-stop for
three weeks. During those heady days, it felt like Macron’s fall was “only a
matter of days”, he recalls in an interview with FRANCE 24. Little did he
expect the young president would see off the challenge and come back stronger
three years later, poised for another mandate.
“He didn’t
respect the people back then and he doesn’t respect them now,” says Batret,
citing Macron’s pledge last year to “emmerde” (piss off) those who reject
Covid-19 vaccines. “We have a president who wants to piss off his own people –
and yet he’ll win again.”
‘Politicians
in Paris don’t give a shit about us’
Like other
rural and suburban workers who formed the backbone of the Yellow Vest
insurgency, Batret says his spending power has plummeted during Macron’s five
years in office – a turbulent term marked by the coronavirus pandemic and now
the fallout from the war in Ukraine. Surging energy prices mean most of his
earnings are now swallowed up by the fuel he needs to run his car and tractor,
and heat his house.
“People in
Paris tell me it’s not so bad for them, but out here in the countryside we’ve
got no choice,” he says. “My sons work 35 kilometres from home. That’s 400
euros per month in petrol just to get to work.”
The trigger
for the Yellow Vest uprising was an unpopular fuel tax, ostensibly designed to
finance France’s transition to a green economy – though it soon became apparent
that its proceeds would mostly be used to plug a budget deficit widened by the
government’s tax cuts for businesses. The levy infuriated motorists in rural
and suburban areas starved of public transport and other services, where
households are heavily reliant on their cars.
This
original association with motor vehicles, cemented by the symbol of the
high-visibility vests, allowed some commentators in well-connected cities to
dismiss the protesters as recalcitrant, selfish motorists unconcerned by
climate change – an image that has largely stuck.
“Politicians
in Paris don’t give a shit about us,” says Batret. “They make empty promises
come election time and then leave us to rot. They have no respect for the
people.”
A longtime
conservative voter, the organic farmer says he will no longer vote for career
politicians “who’ve never done anything real in their lives”. On April 10 he will
cast his ballot in favour of Jean Lassalle, the Occitan-speaking son of
Pyrenean shepherds who was fined 1,500 euros in 2018 for wearing a gilet jaune
in France’s National Assembly.
“I know
lots of people who never voted before but are now interested in the ‘small
candidates’, like Lassalle, [trotskyist Philippe] Poutou, and others who never
get mentioned in the media,” says Batret. “I also know people who’ll back
extremists like [far-right polemicist] Eric Zemmour, but that says more about
their state of despair than their true beliefs.”
When voters
head back to the polls two weeks later for the second-round run-off, polls
suggest they are likely to face a repeat of the 2017 duel between Macron and
veteran far-right candidate Marine Le Pen – a prospect Batret is not relishing.
“On April
24 they’ll be telling us to back Macron as the lesser evil, but I don’t think
he is,” he says. “If it’s Macron versus Le Pen again, I’ll vote Le Pen. And if
it’s Zemmour, I’ll leave the country.”
‘The Gilets
jaunes didn’t just evaporate’
Within
months of the rioting witnessed on the Champs Elysée in late 2018, the number
of Yellow Vests out on the streets had starkly diminished, and Macron could
claim to have largely seen off the most formidable challenge to his presidency.
In terms of
its material objectives, the movement was only partially successful. It forced
the government into a series of crisis measures to prop up purchasing power,
for instance by raising minimum pensions, which helped sap support for the
movement. So did Macron’s “Great National Debate”, called in response to the protests,
which the ubiquitous president soon turned into a town-hall road-show offering
him unrivalled media coverage – while the Yellow Vests were kept at bay.
Still, the
movement left an indelible mark on France, sending a clear warning to the
country’s self-styled “Jupiterian” president and putting neglected swathes of
the country back on the map.
“The Gilets
jaunes didn’t just evaporate after taking off their vests,” says Magali Della
Sudda, a researcher at Sciences-Po in Bordeaux, who has studied the uprising
from its inception and continues to monitor its resurgences.
While the
Yellow Vests are now a scattered and diminished force, Della Sudda identifies
successive “waves of mobilisation”, some coinciding with policies or statements
that galvanised protesters, like the introduction of a Covid-19 health pass
restricting people’s freedom of movement or Macron’s pledge to “emmerde”
anti-vaxxers.
“There are
signs the movement is picking up again, focusing once again on its original
themes of purchasing power and social justice,” she says, pointing to the
tentative return of Yellow Vests on roundabouts across the country.
“Of course
history never repeats itself quite the same way, but we can expect the movement
to gain traction again, in one form or another, in the coming months – for
instance if Macron puts his pension reform back on the table,” she adds,
referring to an unpopular pension overhaul which the government forced through
parliament without a vote and then suspended amid the pandemic.
Della Sudda
says this year’s presidential campaign has done very little to address the
grievances voiced by the Yellow Vests and their supporters, further fuelling
popular resentment of politicians. Having pored over some of the tens of
thousands of cahiers de doléances (complaint books) drawn up as part of
Macron’s national debate, she points to a glaring gap between the country’s
dominant political discourse and ordinary people’s real concerns.
“There is a
huge discrepancy between the complaints voiced by the Gilets jaunes and by the
broader public and the way political parties and the media fail to address
these topics,” she says. “It took a war in Ukraine for candidates and the media
to start talking about purchasing power – but the problem of energy and food
prices did not start with the war.”
Surveys
have consistently placed the cost of living at the top of voters’ concerns,
followed by health and the environment – largely mirroring the priorities
listed by French citizens in the cahiers de doléances, particularly those from
rural areas where hospitals and other public services have shut over the years.
And yet prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the presidential campaign was
dominated by talk of immigration and Islam, driven by the unrivalled media
exposure enjoyed by the likes of Zemmour.
The gross
inadequacy of the campaign means it is still unclear whether the bulk of the
Gilets jaunes will boycott the polls or choose to cast protest votes instead,
says Della Sudda, though stressing that the uprising has left a profound
imprint on many, politicising citizens who previously shunned the polls. She
says there are signs large swathes of the movement will seize on the
opportunity to deliver their verdict on Macron’s government.
Toppling
France’s ‘presidential monarchy’
The Yellow
Vests’ relative inexperience of politics has contributed to generating
misconceptions – as with their use of the term “apolitical” to stress their
rejection of traditional party politics. Studies carried out at the height of
the movement revealed that most participants were first-time protesters with no
political or union affiliation. A majority said they didn’t believe in the
traditional left-right divide, but theirs was a rejection of partisan politics,
not of politics per se.
One of the
defining features of the Yellow Vests is their attempt to reclaim politics by
wresting it from the control of parties and institutions they see as
undemocratic. As Della Sudda puts it, “one can credit the movement with getting
the French to show interest in their institutions and constitution – a
remarkable feat in its own right.”
Those
institutions are failing the people, says 56-year-old Sabine, a primary school
teacher from the Montpellier area in southern France, who declined to give her
full name. She ranks among the numerous Gilets jaunes who have taken up grassroots
politics after years of abstaining from the electoral process.
“I used to
boycott the Fifth Republic’s anti-democratic elections,” she says, referring to
the presidential regime instituted more than 60 years ago by France’s wartime
hero, General Charles De Gaulle. “But after five years of Macron, I’ve decided
to use my ballot to stop the rot.”
Sabine
likens the Yellow Vest experience to a personal and collective awakening to
politics and rampant injustice. She describes its members as “society’s invisible
people who have risen up, who have sprung from the earth with their bright
jackets, a symbol of alertness and visibility”.
“First
there was the uprising, then the movement took root on roundabouts and on
social media, and by way of regular meetings and assemblies,” she says. “Over
time we were able to elaborate a political thought, in the noble sense of the
word, meaning a commitment to improve the society we live in.”
More than
three years after they first donned their bright jackets, Sabine and a dozen
fellow activists are still out on the roundabout they've occupied on the
outskirts of Montpellier since the start of the movement. After lengthy
discussions, most members have agreed to back leftist candidate Jean-Luc
Mélenchon on April 10.
“There were
two main requirements for our choice of candidate: to carry our aspirations and
have a chance of beating Macron. Mélenchon is the only one who meets both,” the
teacher explains. She points to his pledges to impose a cap on prices, boost
wages, bolster public services and convene a constituent assembly tasked with
drafting a new constitution and replacing France’s “presidential monarchy”.
“Mélenchon
is not our ideal candidate, he’s not to everyone's taste and we are well aware
that there’s no easy fix. But he’s our best option. We’re at a crossroads:
either we change course now or we let those in power dismantle our social
system,” Sabine adds. “But our struggle won’t end at the ballot box. Whoever
wins on April 24, we’ll keep up the fight.”
Anyone but
Macron
A veteran
leftist who is having his third shot at the presidency, Mélenchon is locked in
a battle for second place with his longtime rival Le Pen – and polls suggest he
is likely to fall short once again, missing out on the April 24 run-off.
Second-round data also looks more encouraging for Le Pen, who has significantly
narrowed the gap with Macron since she lost by more than 20 percentage points
five years ago.
>>
Closing in on Macron: Could Le Pen’s blandest campaign be her most successful
yet?
On paper,
the narrowing gap means Le Pen is more likely to benefit from the “anyone but
Macron” vote than Mélenchon, says Della Sudda, with some supporters claiming
that widespread anger could propel her to an unlikely victory over the
president.
“It’s an
argument I’ve been hearing on the roundabouts, voiced by a minority of Yellow
Vests. But it’s not clear it will translate into widespread support for Le
Pen,” she says. “Anti-Macronism is just one component of the Yellow Vest vote;
and the National Rally doesn’t carry all of their aspirations – far from it.”
Both the
National Rally and Mélenchon's La France insoumise (France unbowed) have been
cautious in their appeals to the Gilets jaunes, wary of scaring away more
moderate voters, says Frédéric Gonthier, a political scientist at the Pacte
research centre in Grenoble, who has carried out extensive surveys of the
Yellow Vest movement.
“Mélenchon
and Le Pen are trying to present themselves as credible alternatives to Macron,
by softening the more divisive elements in their platforms and tempering their
populist pitch,” he explains. “For candidates who are trying to project an
image of respectability, overtly anti-elitist statements aimed at seducing the
Yellow Vests would be counterproductive.”
Vying for
the working-class vote, the two candidates have focused on the hardship endured
by France’s most vulnerable, hoping to draw the Yellow Vests among them without
overt appeals.
Mélenchon
has had to tread carefully, says Gonthier, noting that many Yellow Vests were
deeply suspicious of his longtime membership of the Socialist Party, seeing him
as a political “apparatchik”. As for Le Pen, “her party is deeply uncomfortable
with the issue of police brutality, which is intimately associated with the
Gilets jaunes.”
A tiny
window of opportunity
The Yellow
Vests’ often violent protests were met with a fierce crackdown that eventually
smothered the movement, but not the anger. During the first months of unrest,
dozens of protesters, journalists and bystanders suffered shocking injuries –
including gouged eyes and hands ripped off – as a result of the rubber bullets
and stun grenades used by riot police, while scores of officers were also
wounded. The government’s steadfast refusal to question the police tactics,
with Macron at one point saying “there is no such thing as police violence”,
infuriated the Yellow Vests and further radicalised its diehard members.
Daniel
Bodin’s voice breaks into sobs when recalling the violence of those days. The
66-year-old was among the first to man the roundabout near Montpellier, where
he and Sabine still don their high-visibility jackets. “We’d never seen
anything like it before. They treated us like pariahs,” he says of the “brutal
repression” ordered by a president he describes as “authoritarian”.
There is
something visceral about the revulsion Macron elicits among many Yellow Vests,
who are prone to citing his derogatory comments – such as telling an unemployed
man he need only “cross the street” to find a job, complaining about the “crazy
money” France spends on welfare, and urging pensioners to “complain less” about
their shrinking allowances.
“His
comments are proof of his contempt for small folk like us, but it would be
foolish to stop at that. It’s the laws he passed that upset me most,” says
Bodin, pointing to the Covid-19 health pass and a contentious law extending
police powers as evidence of civic freedoms being curtailed under Macron.
Like others
in his group, Bodin is routing for Mélenchon in the election. He sees it as the
only chance to reverse “the downward slide into neoliberal economics” and “put
our politics back into the people’s hands”. He singles out for praise the
leftist candidate’s pledge to introduce a so-called “citizen’s initiative
referendum”, giving voters the power to initiate policy and revoke their
elected representatives.
“But we are
neither fans, nor groupies,” he cautions. “And we don’t claim to tell people
how they should vote – that’s what political parties do.”
Bodin
acknowledges deep divisions within the Yellow Vest movement, between those
willing to engage with the electoral process and others who “would rather wait
for the system to collapse or a civil war to break out”. “I understand those
who are disgusted by politics and don’t want to vote,” he adds. “But we have a
tiny window of opportunity and we must give it a try.”
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