Vast Russian military convoy may be harbinger of
a siege of Kyiv
Analysis: convoy estimated to be 40 miles long raises
fears of siege tactics and escalating civilian casualties
Peter
Beaumont in Lviv
Tue 1 Mar
2022 16.42 GMT
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/vast-russian-military-convoy-kyiv-siege-ukraine
In the
satellite image, the trees of the forest just north of the Ukrainian village of
Rudnya-Shpylivska – population 107 – appear as if you could brush them with
your hand.
Before last
week, this hamlet was almost too small to notice, a place that cars would speed
past on the P02 highway, those trees a blur.
Dead centre
of the picture, circulated by the satellite company Maxar Technologies on
Sunday, a small clearing is visible, and next to it, on the road heading south
towards the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, a small proportion of a vast convoy of
Russian military vehicles – estimated to be 40 miles long – accompanied by
15,000 troops.
In places,
the military vehicles can be seen three abreast, almost blocking the road.
Other images of the convoy seem to explain its belligerent purpose: fuel
tankers and trucks carrying food, ammunition and soldiers.
Elsewhere,
just visible are the shapes of towed and self-propelled artillery pieces, BMP3
armoured carriers and Russian main tanks. In places you can see the tracks of
Russian vehicles that have gone off the road – perhaps to scout against attack
from the flanks – visible in the fresh snow covering the fields.
Indications
of smoke from burning buildings off the road, although not on it, backed up by
thermal imaging data from Nasa’s global fire tracking service, suggest,
perhaps, outgoing fire from vehicles in the convoy towards Ukrainian positions.
And in some
images released by Maxar on Monday, troops appeared to have arrived at where
they would halt, deploying in camps outside the city, including in and around
the town of Zdvyzhivka, to the north of Kyiv.
All have
been assembled for what western intelligence agencies and analysts believe is
an imminent attempt to close Russia’s military encirclement of Kyiv and put the
city under siege in its latest attempt to topple Ukraine’s government and
install a Kremlin-friendly regime.
The
presence of the convoy, growing and intact, prompts several conclusions as
things stand. Despite its scale and the way it has blocked the road for miles,
it appears largely unmolested. This suggests Ukraine’s air force is no longer
sufficiently intact to target it in a meaningful way and that Ukraine has not
been able to bring drones, used successfully elsewhere, to hit it.
On Tuesday
the head of the convoy was reportedly passing near the heavily contested Hostomel
airbase 17 miles north of Kyiv’s city centre. There are fears that the force in
the convoy could be deployed against the nearby district of Obolonskyi, the
adjacent village of Horenka, and the main roads running through Obolonskyi
towards the city’s centre.
There is
mounting, urgent concern among western officials that Russian forces are
planning to employ siege tactics against Kyiv, cutting off supplies and routes
in and out, before moving in.
Already,
faced with the threat of the buildup barely an hour away, some of those
residents of Kyiv not attempting to leave have been digging trenches and
setting up barricades to repel the expected assault.
The
possibility of a siege leading to rapidly rising civilian casualties has been
raised by senior Biden administration officials. “It’s likely going to be very
significant loss of life,” said the congresswoman Victoria Spartz, who was born
and raised in Ukraine.
As a
picture emerges of how a full-scale Russian ground assault on Kyiv could begin,
Russia’s Tass and RIA news agencies quoted the Russian defence ministry as
saying it planned to strike the headquarters of Ukraine’s security service and
special operations unit, allegedly to prevent “information attacks” on Russia.
The ministry urged people near the sites to leave the areas.
If those
strikes go ahead, they are likely to be followed by a stepping up of artillery
and missile strikes across the city before a possible armoured incursion.
As Russia
masses forces on three sides of Kyiv, in a sign of the battle to come,
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said defending the capital was a
priority. “If we defend Kyiv, we defend the country,” he said in a video
message released on Telegram. “Kyiv is the heart of our country, and it must
beat. And it will fight for its life to win.”
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