Has Putin saved Boris Johnson?
A scandal over lockdown-breaching parties is taking a
backseat to the Ukraine invasion — but that could still change.
War in Europe may have strengthened the prime
minister’s position, but things could quickly change
BY ESTHER
WEBBER
March 29,
2022 8:26 pm
https://www.politico.eu/article/has-putin-saved-boris-johnson/
LONDON —
Partygate is back but the mood music in Westminster has changed — for now.
A new
episode dropped Tuesday for observers following the latest season of “what’s
going on in the U.K.” as the Metropolitan Police said they would issue 20 fines
over social gatherings at the heart of government which breached COVID rules.
It’s the
first major development since police announced they would investigate a series
of parties held in Downing Street and Whitehall during various stages of
pandemic lockdown.
While the
politics remain volatile, in a little over a month since Russian President
Vladimir Putin ordered troops to invade Ukraine, the so-called “partygate”
scandal that many Westminster watchers predicted would topple the British prime
minister has been swept aside.
Several
Tory MPs, critical because they hold the power to kick Johnson out as party
leader and with it as prime minister, have recalculated in the face of Russian
aggression and concluded now is not the time for a leadership change.
However,
the decision to hand out fines puts the spotlight back on a scandal which No.
10 had been keen to forget and raises fresh questions over Johnson’s future.
Information
on the penalties is limited so far, with the police saying they will not
identify those who have been fined or which events the fines relate to. Civil
servants may not even have to declare they have received a fine, depending on
their level of security clearance, and the government is not expected to
comment on any disciplinary action.
Downing
Street confirmed it would not offer details on anyone involved apart from the
prime minister and the head of the U.K. civil service, Simon Case.
Most
Conservative MPs agree they are in a holding pattern until there’s any word on
whether Johnson himself receives a fine, something that could take months. Some
predict, however, that the prime minister will ride the scandal out since the
situation in Ukraine has dramatically worsened.
One Tory MP
who has been critical of Johnson said there is “a sense we are moving through a
seismic historical event and the PM is showing the right kind of leadership at
such a time. I am afraid rule-breaking drinks parties have faded in their
significance.”
He added
this was also the feeling among party members and local officers — significant
because MPs would generally consult them before calling for Johnson to be
replaced.
Andrew
Bridgen, a Conservative who rescinded a letter of no confidence in Johnson,
told the Daily Telegraph: “If there was a vote of confidence in the PM tomorrow
I’d have to vote for him because otherwise we’d be playing into Mr Putin’s
hands.”
A third MP,
a member of a rebellious caucus elected in 2019, echoed this, saying it was
difficult to see how the PM could be “dislodged” now.
Others suggested
that relations between No. 10 and his party had improved following a backroom
reshuffle last month.
Brand
tarnished
War in
Europe may have strengthened the prime minister’s position, but things could
quickly change. A senior Conservative cautioned that nobody should assume a
leadership challenge was out of the question.
James
Johnson, founder of the pollster JL Partners, said the idea of a “Ukraine
bounce” for the prime minister was not being reflected in public sentiment.
“Focus
groups have said the same thing consistently since January — the PM’s brand has
been significantly tarnished and the effects of partygate on his brand are
still playing a major role,” he said. “It’s been mentioned prominently every
time I ask about the government and PM — more so than Ukraine.”
Confirmation
that officials in Downing Street and Whitehall did break the law also raises
the possibility that the prime minister misled the House of Commons when he
previously asserted no rules had been broken. Misleading the house has
traditionally been considered a resigning matter.
Former
Cabinet minister Andrew Mitchell recently told a meeting on anti-corruption:
“If you get away with not telling the truth at the despatch box, that
undermines all of our civil liberties, all of our human rights, and parliament
in my view has to take a much tougher line.”
Johnson’s
spokesman maintained Tuesday that he does not accept he had misled the House.
While he
has to endure another uncomfortable instalment of prime minister’s questions Wednesday,
parliament will adjourn soon afterward for a two-week Easter break. This will
serve to defuse the tension at Westminster at a convenient point for Johnson,
with no guidance as to when the ongoing police investigation might conclude or
produce further fines.
Once again,
it looks as though Johnson’s strategy for survival will depend on hanging tough
and squeaking through.
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