Russia’s war on Ukraine threatens a global food
security crisis
Our tractors should be ploughing fields and feeding
the world, not towing enemy tanks
OLEG
USTENKO
The writer
is economic adviser to the president of Ukraine
https://www.ft.com/content/02095093-329b-4b66-9f80-13d07350014c
The brutal
Russian invasion of Ukraine is destroying a country, displacing millions of
people and ruining lives. Vladimir Putin has already come close to causing a
major nuclear disaster and appears to have plans for more. In addition, Russian
violence is creating a global food security crisis.
Ukraine is
the world’s fifth-largest exporter of wheat, but farmers cannot now start what
is called their spring sowing campaign. The regular window for starting field
work is the first 10 days of March, and planting needs to be fully completed in
the last week of April. We have highly productive soil, but also a climate that
sets the rules. There is already no way that Ukrainians will be able to sow
this year based on a normal schedule.
Those parts
of Ukraine which are most productive in terms of agricultural production are
now consistently under aerial attack and artillery bombardment. Working the
fields in regions such as Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zhitomir has
become practically impossible.
According
to regional administrators, some of these fields are likely to be mined or
contain unexploded ordnance. Even when we are ready to start ploughing and
planting, anti-mining and ordnance measures will be essential — and we urgently
request help from all civilised countries in that task.
Ukrainian
farmers are resilient. But they also have other important tasks at hand. These
currently include capturing Russian military equipment, blowing up fuel
convoys, and allowing demoralised Russian soldiers to talk with their mothers.
We are a humane and innovative people, but we also know what our priorities
must now be.
Our
tractors should be ploughing fields and feeding the world, but instead too many
of them spend time towing broken down and captured Russian equipment. All that
deadly junk will be recycled, of course, but we would much rather be busy
growing the food that people everywhere need to survive.
If this war
is not stopped immediately, the world will experience a drop of global supply
between 10 per cent to 50 per cent of major agrarian products including wheat,
barley, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower oil. In recent decades, because of smart
investments, increased productivity, and overall efficiency, Ukrainian
agriculture provided a major buffer for the food security of billions of people
around the world. Western companies that have worked with us on this vital
endeavour are a vital part of our on-ground team.
But
agricultural commodity prices have already increased and, once markets realise
the full depth of Putin’s madness, we should expect them to spike further. Rich
western countries may think they are less exposed, due to the nature of their
food consumption, with more meat and less bread in their diet than poorer ones.
But higher commodity prices increase the cost of livestock feed and will
provide a further boost to inflation pressure in the US, the EU, the UK and all
developed countries.
The price
tag for supporting poor people worldwide will increase substantially. On the
Chicago Commodity Exchange prices for wheat already demonstrate substantial
growth. To avert widespread hunger, massive budget pressures and further
inflation shocks, the world needs to act very quickly. All possible measures to
stop Putin’s troops must be on the table — including steps that would have been
unimaginable 10 days ago. The food production clock is ticking.
Each extra
day of the Russian war against Ukraine threatens to push the world into a new
Dark Age. We will emerge victorious and every Russian tank and armoured vehicle
will be destroyed or sent back home. But the human cost will be enormous.
This cost
will mostly fall on Ukrainians and the unfortunate Russian conscripts sent to
fight us. But it will also fall on people around the world who worry about how
much food they can afford to buy for their families.
To stop
Russia, it is essential to impose a full set of sanctions on Russian energy
exports immediately — this will reduce the finance available for Putin’s war
machine. We are calling on all energy producers to step up and help ensure that
effective sanctions do not push up fuel prices.
Russian oil
and gas are already the equivalent of blood diamonds. If you buy Russian energy
products, you are directly financing the killing of Ukrainian children, the
forced displacement of millions of people and the disruption of global food
supply chains. Putin’s war threatens famine and global famine always brings
disease.
The Russian
bell tolls for people who consume food everywhere.
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