‘
Who
knows what spark might ignite Bosnia?’
Serbian
Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić tells POLITICO the Balkans are ‘a
kind of time machine.’
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 4/11/16, 5:33 AM CET
BELGRADE — Serbian
Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić said growing political extremism in
the Balkans threatens the stability of Bosnia-Herzegovina and the
wider region, and warned that recent war trial verdicts at The Hague
have left the environment more volatile than it had been in years.
“My biggest worry
is the situation in Bosnia…everything that is in and around
Bosnia,” Vučić said during a lengthy interview in his Belgrade
office. “Who knows what spark might ignite Bosnia?”
The Serbian leader’s
comments come less than two weeks before he faces reelection and will
be seen by some as nothing short of scaremongering, intended to
present himself as the sole voice of reason in the fractious region.
Political calculation or not, it is also true that emotions are again
running high in the Balkans, confronting Europe with another
potential crisis it can do without.
A pair of verdicts
handed down last month by the International Criminal Tribunal for the
Former Yugoslavia — one convicting Bosnian Serb leader Radovan
Karadžić, the other exonerating Serbian ultranationlist politician
Vojislav Šešelj in connection with war-related crimes — has
inflamed passions on all sides.
Bosnian Muslims and
Croats complain Karadžić’s 40-year sentence was too lenient and
are incensed by Šešelj’s acquittal. Many Serb nationalists,
meanwhile, regard the acquittal of Šešelj as proof that they have
been unfairly targeted by the international community. Serbs have
long complained they have been forced to bear the brunt of the blame
for the Balkan wars in the 1990s that led to the dissolution of
Yugoslavia.
Under an
international peace accord brokered in 1995, Bosnia was divided into
two entities, one jointly controlled by Bosnian Muslims and Croats
and the other, the Republika Srpska, by local Serbs. Yet the
arrangement is fragile, with the Serbs pushing for more autonomy and
the Croats seeking a slice of Bosnia for themselves.
‘A kind of time
machine’
The court decisions
come amid a resurgence of nationalism in the Balkans, including the
recent return to power in Zagreb of the Croatian Democratic Union, or
HDZ, the party of former strongman Franjo Tudjman. Some HDZ leaders
have suggested they would block Serbia’s EU accession unless Serbia
takes a harder line in prosecuting war crimes by, among other steps,
making it easier to extradite suspects.
“I
don’t see any possibility for future clashes in Kosovo.”
Vučić warned that
provocations following the verdicts on all sides, including victory
celebrations by Šešelj supporters in Srebrenica, the site of the
1995 massacre of over 8,000 Bosnian Muslims by Serb forces, had
created a tinderbox.
“Since [mid] March
it has looked from time to time as though we were back in the 1990s,”
Vučić told POLITICO. “The only important topics here were the
Karadžić verdict, the Bosnia-Serbia relationship, the
Serbia-Croatia relationship and when were we going to start with real
conciliation. It’s a kind of time machine.”
He said he was less
concerned about the situation in Kosovo, despite recent political
tensions in the breakaway province over its relations with Serbia.
Kosovo, majority Albanian, declared independence from Serbia in 2008,
but Belgrade does not recognize its sovereignty.
“It is not a part
of the western Balkans, a part of my country under the Serbian
constitution, that worries me the most,” he said. “I don’t see
any possibility for future clashes in Kosovo.”
Vučić, a former
ultranationalist who broke with Šešelj to help form the
conservative Serbian Progressive Party in 2008, has steered Serbia
onto a firm pro-EU course since taking power in 2014. Belgrade opened
accession talks that same year.
Despite his
nationalist past, the Serbian leader has won the trust of Germany’s
Angela Merkel and other European leaders who regard him as an anchor
of stability in the troubled region.
“The
stability of the region is something we need to take care of. If I
have to make more concessions, I have no problems with that.”
With an eye towards
the EU, Vučić insisted his government would not respond to
provocations from Serbia’s neighbors and would continue “to
respect the territorial integrity of Bosnia.”
He said he would
travel to Mostar on Tuesday to meet with Bosnian Muslim leader Bakir
Izetbegović, in an effort to defuse recent tensions. He added he may
make a similar trip to Croatia in the coming weeks.
Bosnian Serb leader
Radovan Karadzic listens to Bosnian Serb Commander Ratko Mladic
during a meeting with the press in Pale, on August 5, 1993
“The stability of
the region is something we need to take care of and we need to
understand each other more and better,” Vučić said. “If I have
to make more concessions, I have no problems with that.”
Coming elections
The renewed
political strains in the Balkans come at a crucial moment for Serbia.
In January, Vučić
called new elections, which are scheduled for April 24. Though his
government’s current term doesn’t expire until 2018, Vučić
opted to seek a fresh four-year mandate before implementing a series
of planned economic overhauls demanded by Europe and the
International Monetary Fund.
Those measures
include trimming government spending and cutting about 70,000 public
sector jobs, or about 5 percent of the total, over the next two
years.
While economists
argue the cuts are crucial for Serbia to resuscitate its battered
economy, the short-term impact could be devastating. Serbia has yet
to fully make the transition from its communist past to a market
economy and the state sector still employs about half of all workers
in the country.
Half of Serbs want
to join the EU, but ultranationalists are polling strongly ahead of
April 24 election.
Despite the
inevitable pain the economic restructuring will bring, Vučić’s
Progressive Party and its allies are the clear favorites to win the
election. They have led recent polls with more than 50 percent. The
Socialist Party, Vučić’s current coalition partner, is a distant
second with about 13 percent.
Šešelj rising
The surprise has
been the surge in support for nationalist parties, especially
Šešelj’s Serbian Radical Party, which is polling at about 8
percent.
Šešelj’s
ultranationalists are not currently represented in the parliament but
appear almost certain to cross the 5 percent threshold needed to
secure seats.
While the party,
which opposes EU membership, advocates closer ties with Russia and
pushes for a “Greater Serbia” that brings together ethnic Serbs
scattered across the post-Yugoslavia Balkan borders, was polling well
even before the Hague verdict, the acquittal gave Šešelj a
significant boost.
Vučić has
responded by casting the election as a choice between Serbia’s
troubled past and the promise of a future in the EU.
“I will fight
their ideas, I will fight their values,” he said. “We will see
what people will decide…. I don’t think we need to have more
wars, more clashes in the region.”
With more than half
of Serbians in favor of EU membership, Vučić would appear to have
little to worry about. His biggest worry might be low turnout and he
has tried to jolt voters by warning that the Hague verdicts could
propel the nationalists to victory.
He said in the
interview that he would pursue a coalition with other parties after
the election even if he wins an absolute majority. He ruled out any
form of cooperation with Šešelj or other nationalist forces.
Political observers
in Serbia say Šešelj’s expected electoral success could play into
Vučić’s hands. When times get tough, the presence of extremists
in parliament could offer Vučić a useful foil to remind voters, and
even the EU, what the alternative to his leadership would look like.
Vučić’s critics
worry that he has already amassed too much power and that the
elections will only strengthen his hold on the country. In addition
to the national poll, local elections will also be held, allowing
Vučić to consolidate his power in key regions.
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