Arseniy
Yatsenyuk’s departure unlikely to end Ukraine turmoil
The
prime minister’s announced resignation sets the stage for a new
government to take over in Kiev as soon as Tuesday.
By DAVID STERN
4/10/16, 11:28 PM CET Updated 4/10/16, 11:31 PM CET
KIEV — Ukraine’s
political turmoil claimed deeply unpopular Prime Minister Arseniy
Yatsenyuk, who announced Sunday he is resigning, but the country’s
volatility likely won’t end soon.
Yatsenyuk said he
would submit his resignation for parliament’s approval Tuesday.
Other sources said the formation of a new coalition could be
announced at the same time, and deputies might vote Volodymyr
Groysman, the current parliament speaker, as the successor.
It’s not clear
what will transpire in parliament it’s time to vote. Until now,
Yatsenyuk has managed to hold onto his position thanks in part to the
backing of MPs associated with some of the country’s richest men,
including steel baron Rinat Akhmetov.
The oligarchs may
have decided that it’s best to have him to step down, but its
unclear what, if any, arrangement they have reached with President
Petro Poroshenko.
“I don’t know
what’s being discussed. These conversations are taking place in a
very small circle,” said Svitlana Zalishchuk, an MP with
Porosheko’s parliamentary bloc. “But from what I understand, they
have the necessary number of votes, otherwise the prime minister
wouldn’t submit his resignation.”
The government that
replaces Yatsenyuk may be equally unstable. Reports indicate a new
ruling coalition would consist of just two parties — the
president’s bloc and Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front — with a
number of unaffiliated deputies added to reach a majority 226-vote.
Such a coalition
could prove to be highly volatile, some analysts warned, and would
require new and intense negotiations for each major vote.
Concerns also
persist that by making Groysman the head of government, too much
power would be concentrated in the president’s hands.
Others say that from
now on Poroshenko would be responsible for the success, or failure,
of the government’s actions. And he alone would face any
displeasure from Ukrainian voters, if promised reforms failed.
Any prolongation of
the crisis could jeopardize billions of dollars in financial support
Ukraine needs to stave off a financial crisis. Ukraine’s western
backers are increasingly frustrated with the country’s chronic
political infighting. IMF officials in particular cannot sign off on
any fresh loans to the country until they are satisfied that a
pro-reform government is firmly in place.
Western backing
appears to be increasingly fragile, following last week’s Dutch
referendum vote against the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement that went
into force at the beginning of the year.
The positions of
Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are particularly weak, and both men want to
avoid a complete breakdown of the coalition. That would lead to early
parliamentary elections, in which they both would probably suffer
electoral losses.
The president in
particular received a further political blow last week, when the
release of the Panama Papers revealed he had set up an offshore
company, which his opponents said he was using to protect his
fortune.
Conversely, other
players, including Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister who
has seen a leap in her popularity, are pushing for early elections.
Ukraine’s latest
political crisis began in mid-February, when deputies failed to
muster enough votes to force out the increasingly unpopular Yatsenyuk
through a no-confidence vote.
Since then, the
business of government has ground to a standstill, as coalition
parties have refused to back Yatsenyuk, while deputies have been
unable to agree on a compromise candidate to replace him.
Yatsenyuk seemed
resolved in announcing his intention to step down. Still he struck a
defiant note.
“The political
crisis in the country was created artificially,” he said. “The
desire to change one person blinded politicians and paralyzed their
political will for real change … The process of changing the
government turned into a mindless running in place.”
He also highlighted
the stakes involved, citing the conflict against Russian-backed
insurgents in the country’s east, which has once again escalated
sharply.
“We can’t allow
destabilization of executive branch during a war,” he tweeted after
announcing that he was going to leave.
Authors:
David Stern
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