In
Northern Ireland, old divisions could have a new casualty: Brexit
The
‘cash for ash’ scandal triggered a political crisis but enmity
across Northern Ireland’s political divide has been mounting for
months.
By PETER
GEOGHEGAN 1/13/17, 3:24 PM CET Updated 1/14/17, 6:09 AM CET
BELFAST — The
spectacular mismanagement of a green energy scheme has brought
Northern Ireland to the brink of an election that could destabilize
its finely-balanced politics — and throw a spanner in Theresa May’s
Brexit plans.
Seasoned Northern
Ireland watchers estimate that a poll — the second in just eight
months — is now 80 percent certain and the fear is that it will
further strain the already tense relations between the region’s
sectarian factions and might threaten the relative political calm
that has followed the Good Friday Agreement.
Even by the volatile
standards of Northern Irish politics, the last month has been a
remarkable one. In late November, Arlene Foster and Martin
McGuinness, first and deputy first ministers, respectively, promised
“that we will keep taking on the heavy responsibilities that come
with elected office, governing in their best interests, tackling
head-on the tough decisions.”
But on Monday, Sinn
Féin’s McGuinness resigned, leaving the devolved parliament at
Stormont, outside Belfast, without a government. If Sinn Féin do not
nominate a replacement for McGuinness as deputy first minister by
Monday, a snap election will be called, perhaps as soon as next
month.
The immediate
catalyst for the breakdown between Sinn Féin and Foster’s
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was a botched green energy scheme
that could cost taxpayers £490 million (Northern Ireland’s entire
annual budget is only around £12 billion). But the enmity goes well
beyond the so-called “cash for ash” scandal, raising questions
about how long this once turbulent corner of the United Kingdom could
be without a functioning government after a fresh poll.
“An
election is unnecessary and puts at risk the core of the Good Friday
Agreement” — Colum Eastwood, Social Democratic and
Labour Party
Sinn Fein has shared
power with the DUP for almost a decade, as part of a mandatory
coalition enforced by the provisions of the 1998 Good Friday peace
deal that ended the three-decade-long Northern Irish Troubles.
Relations between coalition partners, however, have been increasingly
strained, especially since Foster took over the reins of the DUP in
early 2016.
McGuinness, who is
seriously ill, pulled few punches in a strongly worded parting
statement. The former IRA commander denounced “the most crude and
crass bigotry” of his longtime coalition partner.
The DUP, he wrote,
had displayed a “negative attitude” to Irish nationalists and
failed to honor the power-sharing spirit of the Good Friday
Agreement.
The most significant
change in the last month has been the position of Sinn Féin. When
the renewable energy scandal broke, the Irish republicans seemed
content for Foster to step aside while an investigation took place,
with the implicit acceptance that she would return to power in a
matter of weeks.
But the DUP leader
proved far more recalcitrant than her predecessor Peter Robinson.
Instead, the day before Christmas Eve, one of her ministers cut
£50,000 from a scheme to encourage families on lower incomes to
learn Irish.
Although the move
was reversed, republicans viewed it as a hostile act. Sinn Féin
“were looking for bit of respect from the DUP, and they didn’t
get it,” said Chris Donnelly, a republican blogger and former Sinn
Féin candidate. Foster’s habit of describing herself as “the
leader of Northern Ireland,” a misnomer under Stormont’s rules,
did little to endear her to republicans.
So far, attempts by
the DUP to coax Sinn Féin back into government have failed, with
little prospect of either London or Dublin being able to broker a
compromise.
“We are having an
election. That’s fine. We’ll fight it. But I do think an election
is unnecessary and puts at risk the core of the Good Friday
Agreement,” Colum Eastwood, leader of the nationalist Social
Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), told POLITICO.
Under the Good
Friday Agreement, the parties have three weeks from election day to
form an administration. If the DUP and Sinn Féin cannot agree to
share power, Stormont could be suspended and Northern Ireland ruled
directly from Westminster.
The election result
is unlikely to change Northern Ireland’s complex political
arithmetic. The DUP, despite a raft of scandals, is expected to
repeat its poll topping performance in May, followed by Sinn Féin.
Despite their strong performance in opposition in recent months both
the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists are set to lose seats as the
Stormont assembly reduces in size from 108 to 90 seats following
reforms passed last year.
Getting voters out
could be a challenge, too. During the conflict Northern Ireland
frequently recorded some of the highest turnouts in the U.K. In May’s
Stormont elections less than 55 percent voted.
“I don’t think
anybody genuinely wants an election,” said Jonny Byrne, a political
scientist at the University of Ulster. “When you have an election
people need to know what they are voting for. We have no idea what
anybody’s manifesto is for this election.”
Brexit impact
Northern Ireland has
long been “a place apart” in British politics. Where politicians
on the other side of the Irish Sea argue over tax-and-spend and
economic policy, tribal issues such as parades and symbols still
dominate discussions in Belfast. Foster has warned that any election
campaign will be “brutal,” a not too subtle hint that sectarian
politics will be at the forefront.
But what happens in
Northern Ireland in the coming months could have a bearing on the
biggest issue for the U.K. this year: Brexit.
Northern Ireland
voters backed the Remain campaign with 55.8 percent in favor of
staying in the EU. But in October, Northern Ireland’s High Court
ruled that Stormont did not have to give consent before Theresa May
could trigger Article 50. Victims’ campaigner Raymond McCord has
appealed this decision to the Supreme Court, where a ruling is
expected in the coming weeks.
Conversations about
Irish unification are taking place on both sides of the border beyond
the confines of the republican movement.
If the Supreme Court
rules in McCord’s favour, Britain could find itself in the
unprecedented situation of requiring the imprimatur of the Northern
Irish assembly to leave the European Union — but with no
administration sitting in Stormont to grant it.
Brexit has also
revealed deeper fissures within Northern Ireland’s power-sharing
structures, and even in the United Kingdom itself. Since the Good
Friday Agreement the circuitous 300-mile Irish border between north
and south has effectively melted away. Political links with Dublin
have allowed many from the nationalist community to feel comfortable
in the Northern Irish state without fear of a return to majority
Protestant rule.
The Brexit vote has
changed that dynamic. Despite voting Remain, Northern Ireland is on
course to leave the European Union. Many fear that the U.K.’s exit
could pose significant economic and political problems, especially
around the border.
Foster — whose
party backed Leave — has dismissed talk of post-Brexit
difficulties. Prime Minister May, who could come to rely on DUP votes
in the Commons given her slender majority, has shown little interest
in the specific challenges leaving the European Union poses for
Northern Ireland.
EU referendum
ballots are counted in Belfast on June 23, 2016 | Paul Faith/AFP via
Getty Images
EU referendum
ballots are counted in Belfast on June 23, 2016 | Paul Faith/AFP via
Getty Images
Whether Brexit will
change Northern Ireland’s constitutional position is unclear but
for the first time in a generation, conversations about Irish
unification are taking place on both sides of the border beyond the
confines of the republican movement. Many nationalists and some
liberal unionists who voted Remain are increasingly looking to Dublin
for support. Last year, the number of Northern Irish applicants for
Irish passports rose by more than a quarter.
“Brexit uncorked
nebulous grievances here,” said Newton Emerson, a political
commentator with the Irish Times. “As far as anyone can tell it
doesn’t break the agreement but it feels like it breaks the spirit
of it.”
That does not mean
Stormont is finished, said Emerson. He expects the current standoff
to end as all others have done over the past decade: with a
post-election deal.
“I don’t feel a
sense of crisis here. At the root of that is people think that this
is all a load of nonsense. It is not plausible that they will bring
the government down forever.
“That doesn’t
mean it won’t take a long time to get back up and running but
devolution is the only game in town.”
 |
Seis
secretários de Estado no Reino Unido para falar com a comunidade
lusa sobre o "Brexit"
Durante
dois dias, os governantes vão falar com portugueses emigrados sobre
o "Brexit", e questões como a protecção de menores,
legislação laboral e fiscal, participação eleitoral.
LUSA 14 de Janeiro
de 2017, 9:17
Seis secretários de
Estado iniciam este sábado no Reino Unido a segunda edição dos
Diálogos com a Comunidade, em que pretendem abordar "vários
temas de interesse e preocupação" dos portugueses residentes
no país.
Os encontros terão
lugar em Londres, na embaixada de Portugal, hoje à tarde, entre as
14h e as 20h, e no domingo em Manchester, no consulado português,
entre as 13h45 e as 19h15, com a presença dos secretários de Estado
das Comunidades Portuguesas, José Luís Carneiro, dos Assuntos
Europeus, Margarida Marques, dos Assuntos Fiscais, Fernando Rocha de
Andrade, da Justiça, Helena Mesquita Ribeiro, da Inclusão das
Pessoas com Deficiência, Ana Sofia Antunes, e da Cidadania e
Igualdade, Catarina Marcelino.
Entre os temas a
abordar estão o impacto da saída do Reino Unido da União Europeia
– ainda que o processo do "Brexit" ainda demore algum
tempo –, a protecção de menores – têm sido noticiados casos de
menores retirados a pais portugueses que vivem no país –, questões
laborais – há cada vez mais portugueses a emigrar para o Reino
Unido –, questões fiscais, a promoção da igualdade, questões
linguísticas e de participação eleitoral.
Tanto a embaixada em
Londres como o consulado em Manchester esperam ter lotação
esgotada, no primeiro caso 100 pessoas e no segundo caso cerca de 60,
cuja participação foi feita por inscrição após o anúncio da
iniciativa, no início de Janeiro, sobretudo através das redes
sociais.
Ausente devido a um
compromisso previamente assumido estará o deputado do PSD eleito
pelo círculo da Europa, Carlos Gonçalves, que lamentou ter sido
informado oficialmente só na véspera, através da Comissão de
Negócios Estrangeiros e Comunidades Portuguesas da Assembleia da
República.
|
How
Theresa May plans to reduce immigration after Brexit
British
government wants to impose immigration restrictions on ‘every
sector and every skill level.’
By TOM
MCTAGUE 1/14/17, 5:55 AM CET Updated 1/14/17, 9:49 AM CET
LONDON — The
British government is considering formally tying its industrial
strategy for the economy to a new EU visa scheme that will aim to
bring down the number of workers entering Britain by controlling
access for “every sector and every skill level,” senior
government sources said.
While no final
decision has been taken on the details of the new system, ministers
favor extending the regime currently used to manage immigration from
outside the EU, one official familiar with the plans said.
With less than three
months to go until Prime Minister Theresa May kicks off formal
negotiations with the 27 remaining EU countries about Britain’s
exit from the bloc, her government is under pressure to radically
reduce the number of migrants arriving in the U.K. following June’s
referendum in which immigration was the main issue for many voters.
May has reiterated
her commitment to reducing net migration to below 100,000 a year, a
target David Cameron’s government repeatedly missed. Net migration
to the U.K. in the year ending June 2016 was 335,000, of which
189,000 were EU citizens.
The Home Office is
under clear instruction from Downing Street that the new system must
impose controls on the number of workers moving to the U.K. from the
EU, the official said.
May’s
determination to ensure there is control of immigration across the
board appears to contradict comments made by Chancellor Philip
Hammond and other ministers who have sought to reassure employers
that they will continue to be able to hire workers from the EU after
Brexit.
It also undermines
the prime minister’s refusal to rule out continued membership of
the European single market, which requires free movement of people
across borders.
In October, Hammond
suggested there could be carve outs for certain sectors of the
economy, insisting there was “no likelihood” highly skilled and
highly paid workers from the EU would be stopped from coming to the
U.K. Low-skilled migrants competing with British workers for manual
jobs will be harder hit, the government has suggested.
However, a senior
government official said that while “flexibility” would be built
into the new system “to meet the needs of the economy,” the
government wanted to control immigration across the board.
“To control people
coming from Europe is the principle we are working towards,” the
official said. “Every sector and every skill level will have some
form of control.”
The new system will
be tied to the government’s long-term economic strategy, under
plans currently being developed by the Home Office and Department for
Business, two senior government sources said.
The move, ministers
believe, would allow for a long-term approach to managing migrant
numbers, heading off potential labor shortages which force businesses
and public bodies to employ foreign workers.
The government’s
proposal to link the new visa regime to the upcoming industrial
strategy is a further break with the Cameron era. The strategy,
billed as a more proactive approach to job creation than any since
the 1980s, is key to May’s domestic agenda.
“What jobs will we
need and when? That is the sort of question that we could be asking,”
the government official said. “How many British workers do we need
to train up to meet the needs of a certain sector down the line?”
Another aide said it
was sensible for there to be “interplay” between the government’s
economic plan and its goal to reduce net migration.
While the Home
Office is leading on the new scheme, Business Secretary Greg Clark is
also weighing in, alongside Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green,
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Hammond.
The final decision
will be taken by the Brexit cabinet committee chaired by May.
Fresh details of the
prime minister’s plan to re-impose border controls on EU citizens
could come as early as Tuesday when she gives a long-awaited speech
on her plans for Brexit.
“No decisions have
yet been made on our future immigration system but we are determined
to use the opportunity presented by leaving the EU to take control of
the numbers of people coming from Europe in the future,” a
government spokesman said.
He added: “We are
considering very carefully a range of options, taking into
consideration the impacts on the different sectors of the economy and
we will always welcome those with the skills, the drive and the
expertise to make our nation better still.”
Authors:
Tom McTague
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