I
Want, I Want, I Want
Theresa
May wanted to show a friendly yet tough face to her country's
European allies. But her Brexit speech showed one thing above all:
The British prime minister is blind to reality.
A Commentary by
Christoph Scheuermann
January 18, 2017
12:46 PM
If it was Theresa
May's goal to flood Europe with a glut of adjectives, then she was
extremely successful on Tuesday. After Brexit, the British prime
minister said, the United Kingdom will be "stronger, fairer,
more united and more outward-looking." It will be a "secure,
prosperous, tolerant" country, a "great, global trading
nation" that is a good friend and ally.
But beneath the wave
of superficial pleasantries, something much more uncompromising soon
made an appearance behind the lectern at Lancaster House: the hard,
craggy side of Ms. May. If the rest of Europe doesn't cooperate, the
prime minister said, if the EU seeks a punitive deal in the course of
the Brexit negotiations, it would have negative consequences for all
involved.
Far from being a
conciliatory address, May's speech was a catalogue of demands topped
with a dash of threat. A great many of her sentences began with: "I
want."
The advantage of
May's speech is that Europe now at least knows a bit more about the
direction Britain intends to go. Theresa May wants to pull the UK out
of the single market and to no longer be subject to the verdicts of
the European Court of Justice. She wants a free trade agreement and
wants Britain to pay much less into the EU budget than it has thus
far. And she wants to keep one foot in the customs union but hopes to
keep the other outside -- though she didn't explain how she intends
to perform this bit of gymnastics. The disadvantage of May's speech
is that she has now convinced the rest of Europe beyond a shadow of a
doubt that the British government isn't just nasty, but is also
prepared to take the gloves off.
May was unable to be
friendly and unyielding at the same time. Her speech was also an
attempt to find her way out of the ditch into which she had pitched
herself last autumn. Back then, she uttered the striking sentence:
"If you believe you are a citizen of the world, you're a citizen
of nowhere." It sounded like a declaration of war against the
liberal, urbane, cosmopolitan Great Britain. Since then, much has
changed. In the eyes of Prime Minister May, the world is once again
full of opportunity. Openness is good, globalization perhaps is too
and free trade is definitely a plus. At least from this perspective,
May has once again become more pragmatic, which is to be welcomed.
Uncomfortable for
Everybody
May is prepared to
throw everything on the negotiating table that her country can offer
the rest of Europe, including intelligence services, nuclear weapons
and cooperation in the fight against terrorism. The prime minister
didn't explicitly say so, but her message is clear: You on the
Continent profit significantly from our contributions to European
security, so don't push us away. That would be uncomfortable for
everybody.
What is clear is
that the government in London remains dependent on the goodwill of
two partners: the EU and Donald Trump. Each has elements of risk. As
soon as Britain, at the end of March, submits its formal, Article 50
notification to the EU of its intention to leave the bloc, time will
no longer be on the country's side. If she's lucky, May will have 18
months to complete the divorce proceedings. When it comes to the
framework that will govern the exit negotiations, Britain finds
itself in a weak position. Furthermore, the EU has little interest in
showing too much leniency with Britain and thereby risking that other
countries might be tempted to follow the UK out the door.
When it comes to
Donald Trump, nothing has changed: The situation remains
unpredictable and chaotic. Even if May's government grovels its way
into the good graces of the incoming U.S. president, it is unlikely
that a British-American free-trade agreement would be completed as
quickly as many Brexit fans in the UK hope. In this regard, May
should be more honest with the citizens of Britain.
May used the
majority of her Tuesday speech to promise her country a glorious
future, but it is one over which she only has limited control. In the
worst case scenario, it appears that she would rather slam the door
shut and risk a cold, mucky Brexit than agree to a painful
compromise. No deal is better than a bad deal, she said on Tuesday.
If that is how she speaks with friends, one wonders how she might
deal with enemies.
With its intention
to leave the European common market, May's government has opted for
the path of willful self-mutilation, at least when it comes to the
country's mid-term economic prospects. It will take many years before
British diplomats are able to complete a free-trade agreement with
the EU and with other countries. The fruits of Brexit, if there are
any at all, will only grow slowly. Until then, May will have to offer
her allies more than just the graciousness of continuing to allow
them to export Prosecco and cars to Britain. May needs Europe.
Adjectives alone won't help her.
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