Erdogan's
Big Prize: Europe At Odds over Visa Freedom for Turks
Brussels
is likely to open the door for visa-free travel to Europe for Turkish
citizens, even if Ankara doesn't fulfill all the conditions imposed.
Many in Europe are concerned that it could trigger a wave of new
refugees from Turkey itself. By SPIEGEL Staff
April
29, 2016 – 06:40 PM
Until late in the
evening, the visit had gone unusually harmoniously. The meeting
between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, EU Council President Donald
Tusk and EU Commission Deputy President Frans Timmermans with Turkish
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Gaziantep felt almost like a family
get-together. Davutoglu even brought a cake for Tusk, who had
celebrated his birthday the previous day. But at 10 p.m., the
conversation turned to the EU liberalization of its visa policy for
Turkey. Timmerman asked for understanding: "We as the Commission
have to prove that you have fulfilled all the conditions," he
said. Otherwise there would be problems with EU member states and the
European Parliament.
It was the moment
that Davutoglu's expression suddenly darkened. "We have
delivered," he had told the group earlier. "The number of
refugees has gone down and we now expect the EU to deliver on its
commitments and that visa liberalization will happen."
Ankara's logic is
simple: Given that Turkey is solving Europe's refugee problem, the
country's 79 million people must be provided with visa-free travel to
the EU, even if Ankara hasn't yet fulfilled all 72 of the conditions
set out by Brussels. That's the price. Europe must turn a blind eye.
It's likely that it
will do so. On Wednesday, the European Commission is expected to make
a decision on whether to move forward with the visa liberalization
process and there is much to suggest the EU executive will decide in
favor. During a meeting on Wednesday of this week, members of the
Commission agreed that if Turkey fulfilled as many of the 72
conditions as possible between now and then, that it will make a
favorable recommendation. Sources with knowledge of the Commission
proceedings said the number of outstanding conditions would have to
be single digit in number. "The count will take place on
Wednesday." So far, Turkey has met around 50 of the demands.
The deal with
Turkey, negotiated by Chancellor Merkel, envisions the introduction
of visa-free travel for Turkish nationals by the end of June if all
goes according to plan. At that point, any Turkish citizen will have
the right to travel to the EU and remain here for up to 90 days at a
time without needing a visa. If it approves the provision, this would
mark the first time the EU has ever made such a recommendation
without requiring that all the conditions first be met. In other
words, Turkey is in fact being given allowances, despite all claims
to the contrary. In March, Merkel had assured that, "The Turks
must fulfill all conditions, there will be no exceptions." EU
Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker seconded her in April: "The
criteria will not be watered down in the case of Turkey." But so
far it hasn't yet.
For Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, visa-free travel is the big prize. To
secure it, he has even threatened to allow the refugee deal with the
EU to collapse, meaning that Turkey would no longer prevent refugees
from making the journey across the Aegean Sea to Greece and the EU.
He gave Europe a choice: either the refugees or visa-free travel.
A Wedge Through
Europe?
It's a move that has
the potential to drive a wedge through Europe, and to ruffle domestic
politics in Germany. Many European leaders fear any concessions made
by Europe to Turkey could play into the hands of the right-wing
populists. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Freedom Party of
Austria (FPÖ) and France's Front National could take advantage of
the issue in order to stir up sentiment against Muslim visitors from
the country. It could also jeopardize the current fragile peace
between Merkel and Horst Seehofer, the governor of Bavaria and head
of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party to the
Christian Democratic Union. Seehofer has been one of the most
powerful and outspoken opponents of Merkel's refugee policies.
"People have
woken up to the issue of visa-free travel," warns Stephan Mayer,
of the CSU, who is also the domestic policy spokesman for the joint
CDU-CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag. "It's an issue
that worries a lot of people. I think there's a threat that the AfD
will try to take advantage."
Erdogan himself
views the dispute over visa-free travel as a test of his own power.
And he's certain that he has the better cards in this game of poker
than Merkel and the EU. "The European Union needs Turkey more
than Turkey needs the European Union," he said in Ankara earlier
this month. Meanwhile, EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn of
Austria has admonished Turkey to "negotiate, not threaten."
But the Turkish
president has never been shy in confrontations with his opponents --
be they the political opposition, the military or the secular
opposition. Toughness is his recipe for success. His unwillingness to
compromise also helped catapult him to the presidency. This is not
one for the kinds of face-saving solutions or ornate compromises that
are common in the EU.
For years, the EU
had treated Turkey like a supplicant. And now Erdogan is seizing his
opportunity to chasten Europe's leaders, Merkel first and foremost.
There have been plenty of examples, too. In Dresden, the director of
the Dresdner Sinfoniker orchestra has claimed that Turkey's
delegation to the EU tried to strong arm the European Commission to
defund a concert planned for Saturday commemorating the 100th
anniversary of the Armenian genocide. Then there is the case Turkey
is bringing against German satirist Jan Böhmermann for insulting
Erdogan. Finally, there's Erdogan's battle against journalists who
are critical of the Turkish leader. This year again saw certain
foreign journalists prevented from remaining in the country. All of
these incidents clearly demonstrate that Erdogan isn't ready to
adjust to European standards. And now the president of the Turkish
national parliament, Ismail Kahraman, is calling for an Islamic
constitution for the secular country. In Turkey, said Kahraman, a
member of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), "there
is no place for secularism."
The question now is
how far Europe is willing to go in its self-denial. It's likely the
European Commission will provide an answer next week. "It's not
possible for Turkey to fulfill the criteria 100 percent. We know
that," says one German official with knowledge of the
negotiations. The official says the situation will not ultimately be
black or white -- it will be gray. "It's like when you tell your
kids that you will take them on vacation if they great straight A's,"
says another EU diplomat. "Are you really going to cancel if
they get a B?"
But what if there is
also an F or two in there? One of the points of contention is a
Turkish anti-terror law so broadly defined that it makes it possible
for Erdogan to go after anyone he decides to label as a terrorist,
even journalists who report critically about him. Inside the European
Commission, some believe this law gives a "blank check" to
Turkish security agencies to do as they please. Parts of Turkish law
are also inconsistent with the European Convention on Human Rights.
Even in Ankara, many
doubt that anything will change fundamentally in the coming weeks.
Ertugrul Yacinbayir, the country's former deputy prime minister, says
the government has no interest in undertaking a reform of the
anti-terror law. "They will never implement all of the EU's
conditions," he says.
Erdogan's strategy
is that of agreeing to many of the conditions. But he has done little
in a few, decisive areas. It is a course of action he hopes will make
it as difficult as possible for the Europeans to turn away from their
visa pledge. When a 20-person EU delegation traveled to Ankara to
negotiate the details of the visa deal, around 60 well-prepared
Turkish specialists were waiting for the Europeans. They addressed
issues like combatting corruption and altering laws against money
laundering. For the last four days, there has even been a daily video
conference between Commission representatives and Turkish government
experts in order to clarify problems.
Erdogan Unequivocal
Even critical EU
diplomats readily admit that Turkey has in fact moved forward with a
number of draft laws. In its last progress report on visa
liberalization for Turkey in March, the Commission reported that "a
number of important steps forward" had been made. And this week,
a long-awaited letter arrived confirming, for example, that Iraqis
and Afghans who are returned from Greece to Turkey are now able to
submit applications for international protection. "We have
implemented almost all conditions," says Selim Yenel, Turkey's
ambassador to the EU. "We want the agreement to be implemented
in its entirety and for all Turkish citizens."
At public
appearances, Erdogan leaves no doubts about his expectation that
visa-free travel will be implemented in June. The president plans to
keep to his word, having pledged visa-free travel to voters. He can
ill afford a failure on the issue. "Erdogan is prepared to go as
far as he has to," says Metin Corabatir, president of the
Research Center on Asylum and Migration (IGAM) in Ankara. "If
the EU rebuffs Turkey, then the deal will be history. Then Erdogan
will hardly be willing to serve as Europe's doorman."
The issue of
visa-free travel for Turks is also a political hot potato for Merkel
domestically. It could re-escalate delicately patched over
differences she has with the CSU's Seehofer over her refugee
policies. The CSU opposes visa-free travel and Seehofer has recently
been making sure that everyone knows it. In an interview with the
Bayernkurier, a newspaper that serves as the party's mouthpiece, the
politician said he could only warn against it, saying that visa-free
travel might lead to the importation of "internal Turkish
problems" to Germany.
It's sentiment
shared by Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Hermann, likewise with
the CSU. "In my opinion, the unlimited free entry of Turks and
Kurds to Germany is indefensible for security reasons," he says.
Hermann sees a danger "that the Turkish-Kurdish conflict will be
imported and carried out on German soil."
The critical voices
aren't restricted to the CSU; they can also be found in Merkel's own
CDU. The party's domestic policy expert in parliament, Wolfgang
Bosbach, for example, notes that the federal government had "always
rejected" visa-free travel for Turks "because it feared a
considerable increase in irregular migration, and not without reason,
particularly in light of the critical situation in the Kurdish
regions." From the perspective of security, he says, visa
freedom is problematic.
Will Visa Waiver
Bring Influx of Turks?
Interior Ministry
officials in Berlin fear that the lifting of the visa requirement
will lead to a massive spike in the number of Kurds applying for
asylum here. Visa-free travel would give them the ability to take a
normal flight to Germany as a tourist and then submit their asylum
requests once they land -- applications that in many cases would have
a good chance of success. There are already 11,000 Turkish nationals
living in Germany after having been provided with asylum due to state
persecution at home. If President Erdogan continues to escalate the
conflict with the Kurdish population in southeastern Turkey, that
number could rise even further.
Fears also persist
in Berlin that the policy will result in an influx of poverty
migrants from Turkey who will go off the grid and make ends meet with
under-the-table jobs rather than leaving after 90 days as stipulated
under the visa-waiver program.
Gareth Jenkins, a
prominent British expert on Turkey, believes that a substantial
number of Turks would come to Europe and either apply for asylum or
disappear into the underground economy, especially in Germany and the
Netherlands, where so many Turks have relatives. There are already
400,000 internally displaced refugees within the Kurdish regions of
Turkey as a result of the civil war-like conditions there. Many are
dirt poor, Jenkins says, "but whether by finding it themselves
or borrowing it from others, even they would be able to find enough
money to get a passport and pay the €€70 to €€80 it costs for a
one-way flight on a budget airline from Turkey to Germany."
It's not just the
potential increase in the number of Turks entering Germany that
frightens CSU politicians. They also fear that the issue could help
to further elevate the right-wing populist AfD. Reservations about a
visa waiver for Turks among the German population are significant. A
poll taken in March found that 49 percent of Germans reject the
initiative. Gunther Krichbaum, the chairman of the federal
parliament's European Affairs Committee, fears that the debate will
unsettle Germans. "The people are paying very close attention to
what is happening right now," he says. "The EU's
credibility is at stake."
The Bundestag,
though, doesn't have the power to stop the visa-waiver plans. It must
be approved by the European Council, the powerful EU body that
represents the leaders of the 28 member states, and by the European
Parliament, but not by the German parliament. But Manfred Weber, the
group leader of the Christian Democrats in the European Parliament,
is calling for just that. "Given the importance, especially for
Germany, it would surely be good if the government in Berlin were to
underpin the refugee treaty with a decision by the Bundestag,
including any possible visa liberalization," he says.
A Syrian refugee
camp in Kilis, Turkey: Is Europe's reliance on the Turkish government
too deep for its own good?
In order to assuage
critics, the German government is advocating a "snap-back
mechanism." Germany and France distributed the proposal among
their EU partners on Thursday. The mechanism would stipulate that the
visa waiver program could be suspended if it turned out that large
numbers of Turkish citizens were fleeing to Europe in order to apply
for asylum or to illegally immigrate. There are "justified
fears" of such a scenario, German government sources say.
The German view is
that this emergency brake should be sufficient to persuade those with
lingering doubts on the European Council and in the European
Parliament, where members never had much enthusiasm for the deal with
Turkey in the first place. "The chancellor has made herself
vulnerable to blackmail through the Turkey deal," warns
Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, a member of Germany's Free Democratic
Party and a European parliamentarian. He says he would have preferred
to see the visa-waiver applied in stages, first to researchers or
businesspeople, for example.
There is also
resistance in the European Council. Austria and France are currently
having to do battle with strong right-wing populist parties, and
their enthusiasm for letting Turks travel to Europe without visa
restrictions is accordingly slight. Hungary and Poland are also
opposed.
It remains unclear
whether some kind of emergency brake will suffice to bring around the
opponents in the European Council. Because for as long as the EU is
dependent on Ankara on the refugee issue, Europe will hardly be in a
position to pull that brake -- assuming that Erdogan even accepts
such a brake in the first place.
By Christiane
Hoffmann, Peter Müller, Ralf Neukirch, Maximilian Popp, Christoph
Schult and Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário