Brussels Playbook: EU calm as Macron carries on —
Janša defeated — Von der Leyen in India
BY JAKOB
HANKE VELA
April 25,
2022 7:00 am
POLITICO
Brussels Playbook
By JAKOB
HANKE VELA
DRIVING THE
DAY — MACRON REELECTED Share on
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FIVE MORE
YEARS: Emmanuel Macron secured a second term as French president last night, in
a runoff election that’s sure to be the buzz in Paris, Brussels and beyond this
morning. He’s therefore broken the single-term spell that haunted his
predecessors François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy.
International
congrats: Overnight, Macron spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who both congratulated him on his
victory. Britain’s Boris Johnson also swiftly congratulated Macron, as did U.S.
President Joe Biden, who tweeted: “I look forward to our continued close
cooperation — including on supporting Ukraine, defending democracy, and
countering climate change.”
The
results: Macron scored about 58.5 percent of the vote, according to official
figures, while his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen won about 41.5 percent —
her strongest ever showing. Our colleague Clea Caulcutt has more.
We took a
look at the broader winners and losers of the night, beyond just what the
official results say — and even beyond France:
WINNER 1 —
EMMANUEL MACRON: In more than one way. Many had predicted his win, but Macron
beat Le Pen with a higher margin than expected, boosting his party’s prospects
for securing a majority or at least a workable coalition in June’s
parliamentary election. That vote will be key for the next government to
continue to carry out Macron’s plans and avoid what the French call a
“cohabitation” — when the president represents one party while the prime
minister and government come from another.
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In Europe,
Macron can arguably now lay claim to the title of most powerful leader. Clément
Beaune, Macron’s close ally and France’s EU affairs minister, told Playbook the
victory “is excellent news for a strong France that is a leader in Europe.”
He added:
“Now comes the next battle, that of the legislative elections: to have a
majority that will allow us to implement the program, meet expectations and not
block the country.”
WINNER 2 —
THE PLANET (AND RENEWABLES INDUSTRY): Admittedly, the bar was set as low as it
gets. Faced with an opponent whose flagship climate proposal was to tear down
wind turbines, even a candidate whose government was condemned in court for
climate inaction was better for the environment.
But Macron
has promised to pick up the pace: He wants to turn France into the world’s
leading climate-neutral country. “Making France a great ecological nation is
our project,” he proclaimed last night.
To do that,
he has vowed to build new nuclear plants, but admits that these will take
decades to construct. He has therefore also promised massive investment in
renewable energy sources that can come online immediately, such as wind and
solar.
WINNER 3 —
EUROPEAN UNION: As European Parliament President Roberta Metsola tells
Playbook: “Macron’s victory confirms an ambition for a Europe that gives itself
the means to act.”
Just like
with climate policy, the choice could not have been more black and white when
it comes to the EU. Le Pen’s proposal to turn the EU into a league of nations
would have meant the de facto end of the Union as we know it. Macron, on the
other hand, has called for bold reform to strengthen the bloc, including by
boosting the EU’s own resources, its democratic accountability, and allowing
those countries that want to integrate further to move faster.
Such an EU
of concentric circles or of majority voting will be more necessary than ever,
if Ukraine is to join the Union.
LOSER 1 —
FRENCH DEMOCRACY: France has chosen stability, but just barely. A majority of
votes in the first round of the election went to parties that want to knock
over the chessboard or set it on fire. Le Pen’s National Rally secured its best
result, her voters seemingly undeterred by her links to Russia’s Vladimir
Putin, who is waging war within Europe.
The fact
that more than 40 percent of votes went to the far right does not bode well for
future elections, when Macron’s party will have to reinvent itself and focus on
more than his individual persona.
With the
center left and center right decimated, Macron established himself as the only
viable option. Frustration about that lack of democratic choice is running
deep: In fact, more people abstained (over 13.6 million) than voted for Le Pen
(roughly 13.3 million).
LOSER 2 —
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Russia’s leader will find little solace in his champion Le
Pen’s score. Only her victory could have helped him. With Macron confirmed for
a second term, Putin remains isolated in Europe. His biggest threat — a
successful, united and democratic EU — has just been strengthened.
Or as
Metsola put it in comments to Playbook: Last night’s result “is a victory for
our values, values that worry all autocrats because they signify the end, in
the more or less long term, of their model.”
What’s
more, there are now greater chances for stronger European defense, which would
increasingly neutralize Russia’s only remaining asset: its military.
LOSER 3 —
EUROPEAN PEOPLE’S PARTY: When Macron won his first term in 2017, the
center-right European People’s Party was dominant across the EU, but now it is
out of government in the bloc’s four biggest countries, suffering a major
defeat in France, where Valérie Pécresse did not even secure 5 percent of the
vote in the first round and is now in financial trouble.
It has at
times tried to emulate the far right, but it seems here voters opted for the
original. The editorial director of newspaper Le Monde Jérôme Fenoglio argues
that the center right thought it had finally won the battles of ideas, but it
was in fact “unable to defend its vision of society” and found itself reduced
to watching the two finalists court supporters of far-left candidate Jean-Luc
Mélenchon.
NOW HEAR
THIS: Check out this special edition of POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast,
focused on the French election.
ELECTION IN SLOVENIA Share
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BONUS LOSER
— JANEZ JANSA: Meanwhile, Slovenia’s populist right-wing Prime Minister Janez
Janša suffered a heavy defeat in a parliamentary election Sunday. That’s the
same Janša who had questioned the results of the 2020 U.S. election, when Joe
Biden beat Donald Trump.
A new green
party, the Freedom Movement, which was taken over and revamped by businessman
Robert Golob in January, received around 33 percent of the vote, according to
the National Election Commission, with more than 99 percent of the votes
counted.
Background:
Under Janša, Slovenia was marked by a decline in democratic standards. A recent
Freedom House report indicated that Slovenia faced the sharpest democratic
decline of all 29 countries that it monitors, based on factors such as the
legislative process, media independence and corruption.
Una Hajdari
has more details on the election here.
UKRAINE UPDATE
MORE
SANCTIONS COMING: It’s crunch time for EU negotiations on another package of
sanctions for Russia, with Brussels expected to present a proposal to national
capitals as soon as today, which ambassadors could then discuss during the
week.
The new
package is set to include some form of ban on Russian oil imports, and may also
target more Russian banks by expelling them from the SWIFT international
payments system, four diplomats told POLITICO’s Barbara Moens, Leonie Kijewski
and Sarah Anne Aarup.
Borrell
says still no unified position: But top EU diplomat Josep Borrell told German
newspaper Welt in an interview out today that there still isn’t enough support
among member countries for a complete embargo or punitive tariff on Russian oil
and gas imports. “At the moment, we in the EU do not have a unified position on
this question,” Borrell said, adding that a “final proposal for an embargo on
oil and gas is not yet on the table.”
Against
German angst: Meanwhile, a group of MEPs from across the political spectrum
have sent a letter to German Chancellor Scholz, urging him to back sanctions on
Russian energy.
“We find it
hard to believe that the proud German nation, which strongly supports Ukraine
and in huge majorities demands sanctions on Russia, is satisfied with such
policy line of the German Government,” opposing immediate energy sanctions, the
letter reads.
Co-signatories
include former Lithuanian PM Andrius Kubilius, Renew Europe’s VP and economist
Luis Garicano and Guy Verhofstadt. You can read it here.
DRONES AND
LIGHT WEAPONS WILL MAKE DIFFERENCE IN DONBAS: As Russian forces seek to expand
their control of the oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk and firmly establish a land
bridge with Crimea, it is weaponry such as reconnaissance and armed drones,
howitzers and light anti-tank weapons that will determine the outcome of the
skirmishes to come, writes Jamie Dettmer.
MORE
UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS FLEE RUSSIAN ONSLAUGHT: With Russia’s record of destroying
cities and accusations that its troops have committed war crimes against
civilians, authorities want people to leave and not ride out the attack at
home, Sergei Kuznetsov reports.
HOW
GERMANY’S GREENS WENT FROM DOVES TO UBER-HAWKS: Our colleague Hans von der
Burchard reports that the German Greens — a party born out of environmental,
pacifist and anti-nuclear movements — have become the driving force in
Chancellor Scholz’s government on military support for Ukraine, pushing him to
send more and heavier weapons. Read Hans’ story here.
RETHINKING
GAS SUPPLIES: Balkan countries are under pressure to find alternative gas
supplies amid fears of Moscow turning off the tap. But as Nektaria Stamouli
explains, it’s no easy task to plug into other options.
NOW READ
THIS: Playbook’s own Zoya Sheftalovich explains why Ukrainian Jews say they’ve
experienced a renaissance since the collapse of the USSR, in sharp contrast to
the image painted by Vladimir Putin’s propaganda, claiming he’s trying to
“de-nazify” their country.
**As the
West is ramping up sanctions towards Russia, POLITICO Pro keeps you informed on
any news regarding European trade policy. Contact us from your business email address
to request a free trial.**
IN OTHER NEWS Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap1
VON DER
LEYEN IN INDIA: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has arrived
in Delhi, where she will this morning meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The visit comes just as Western allies are seeking to convince India to back
sanctions against Russia.
Key
context: Russia is India’s biggest weapons supplier, and Modi has remained
tight-lipped and avoided speaking out against Russian President Putin.
The visit
also comes as EU industries have been seeking to diversify away from China,
which is rapidly losing its attractiveness due to state interventions and
draconian lockdowns.
Officials
from the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) said they hoped
today’s visit would unblock talks on an India-EU trade agreement.
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