There
will be no President Le Pen
Catherine Fieschi
My
work with focus groups across France suggests something is shifting.
The Front National is a threat, but the populist domino effect will
stop at France
Catherine Fieschi is
director of the Counterpoint political science consultancy
Wednesday 8 February
2017 07.00 GMT
Alarming though the
narrative of a populist domino effect is – delivering Brexit,
Donald Trump and soon Marine Le Pen, followed perhaps by Frexit –
the reality is that President Le Pen is not on the cards. That’s
not to say that “Marine” (as the Front National leader now brands
herself) or her voters should be lightly dismissed. But it does mean
that while she has had a disproportionate effect on French politics
over the past few years, she may not be the most important figure in
what is now a very open race.
No doubt Fillongate
– the spectacle of the former conservative prime minister and
“president-in-waiting” François Fillon squirming over alleged
public payments to his wife, Penelope – is playing into the hands
of the far right.
And French voters
have already defenestrated the other political grandees: François
Hollande had wisely ruled himself out of a return to the Elysée, but
his fellow heavyweights Nicolas Sarkozy, Alain Juppé and Manuel
Valls were swiftly discarded in the party primaries.
Advertisement
This leaves Le Pen,
Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the far left, and Emmanuel Macron, rising star
of the third-way movement En Marche! – and there are new and
far-reaching dynamics afoot that turn this into a make-or-break
moment for France.
While Fillon’s
troubles have given Le Pen a boost, the two candidates’ electorates
are vastly different, so any advantage to her will be marginal. The
key factor playing against Le Pen remains France’s two-round,
first-past-the-post electoral system.At a time when other parties of
the populist right seem unstoppable, Le Pen has a particularly robust
set of obstacles stacked against her. And this now matters in ways
that go beyond the usual lockdown by mainstream parties to block the
FN come the second round (the so-called front républicain).
What matters more
this time is what the FN has been promising its voters. Of course, Le
Pen has benefited from the things that have buoyed up populists
elsewhere in recent years: the perception of growing inequality,
concerns about migration, the aftermath of the financial crisis, and
the failure of centre-left parties to deliver the goods that their
traditional constituencies aspire to. And, added to that list, France
has suffered major terror attacks.
All this could
deliver 30% of the vote for Le Pen in the first round of the contest,
on 23 April. If she makes it to the second round, then what? Probably
nothing, I would say. She would fail against any of the candidates
she faced. And winning the first round only would hardly stem the
inevitable consternation of her supporters, who expect nothing less
than power.
The FN is deeply
divided: many put up with Le Pen’s strategy (led by her almost
universally despised adviser Florian Philippot) only on the condition
that she delivers on the presidency. If she doesn’t, borderline
far-right voters may not mobilise for the parliamentary elections, in
June. And in that case, her own leadership position would be in
jeopardy.
Le Pen, in other
words, may really only have one shot: she either shatters the 50%
barrier on the first round (a chance I would put at about 10%,
barring a catastrophic terror attack or substantial scandal) or she
loses a lot more than the presidency.
Le Pen’s second
big obstacle is that she is no longer the outsider. Socialist Benoît
Hamon is gathering steam while Macron, a former finance minister and
the polls’ favourite, is emerging as the progressive alternative to
Le Pen. They’re the “fresh faces”. If anything, Le Pen is
starting to look like an old hand.
The fact that there
are alternatives – even liberal ones – is a novelty in France. Of
course, this is partly an optical illusion. But the FN no longer has
a monopoly in the marketplace of renewal. The primaries –
Républicains, but also Socialists, have mobilised supporters who, a
few months ago, were in despair. And Macron’s momentum is also a
symptom of the growing wish for change – across the political
spectrum.
My work with focus
groups across France suggests something is shifting, some of it
manifesting as support for the FN but also in the green shoots of a
new more positive outlook, a new decentralised, local
entrepreneurialism. In no way should we underestimate the FN’s
capacity to mobilise – it is a threat. But as things stand, renewal
may emerge in other, more hopeful ways.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário