Germany’s
new frontrunner: The Schulz
In
a zany political climate, the former president of the European
Parliament sees his electoral fortunes rise.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 2/8/17, 4:05 AM CET Updated 2/8/17, 8:13 AM CET
BERLIN — That a
small-town mayor turned MEP could be a serious contender for
Germany’s chancellorship would rank as nothing less than a
political earthquake — that is, if it wasn’t for Brexit, Donald
Trump or the sudden implosion of François Fillon in France.
But in this zany
political climate, Martin Schulz’s sudden surge in popularity is
more par for the course than a surprise, the latest example of the
punditry’s conventional wisdom being turned on its head.
Less than two weeks
ago, the German press caricatured Schulz’s bid to resurrect his
moribund Social Democrats as a Kamikaze mission. With the party
plumbing historic lows around the 20 percent mark — a full 17
percentage points behind Angela Merkel’s conservatives, Schulz’s
decision to take up the party’s mantle looked to be an act of
desperation by the man just ousted as president of the European
Parliament.
As so often in
Schulz’s unlikely political career, he is having the last laugh.
News Monday that the SPD had overtaken Merkel’s Christian Democrats
for the first time in more than a decade in a regular horse-race poll
published by the daily Bild sent shockwaves through Berlin. A flurry
of recent polls had shown the SPD gaining steam, but few believed the
SPD would actually pull ahead.
The big question is
whether the Schulz effect is sustainable.
The longshot that
took the lead
Given the
electorate’s fickle mood and Schulz’s new-man-in-town luster, the
polls should be treated with caution. And yet, caveats aside, there’s
no denying his candidacy has struck a nerve.
Up until two weeks
ago, Berlin’s chattering classes believed a fourth Merkel term was
inevitable. Love or hate her, Merkel was alternativlos, without
alternative, as the common refrain had it. Though Merkel’s
popularity suffered during the refugee crisis, her approval ratings
rebounded as the influx dissipated.
Schulz, meanwhile,
was widely dismissed as a longshot who lacked a strong network in his
party and broad public support. About one-fifth of Germans said they
didn’t know him. Even his campaign theme — social justice —
seemed little more than a frayed socialist hand-me-down, further
evidence of the party’s ossification and lack of vision.
The notion that
Schulz could beat Merkel by running against the grand coalition his
party has embraced was dismissed out of hand.
No more.
If Merkel is still
the frontrunner, she’s running scared.
The upcoming
campaign “will be the hardest I’ve ever experienced,” Merkel
acknowledged on Monday in Munich.
A fractured base
Word that the SPD
had pulled ahead in the Bild poll came just as the chancellor was
trying to bury the hatchet with Horst Seehofer, head of the Christian
Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party to Merkel’s Christian
Democrats.
Merkel and Seehofer
have been at loggerheads for months over refugee policy, with the
Bavarian pushing for a harder line, including a ceiling on asylum
seekers, something the chancellor rejects. The ongoing tensions have
allowed deeper divisions within Merkel’s base to fester,
confounding Merkel’s attempts to rally the party’s conservative
base behind her. While the CSU has pledged to support Merkel’s
candidacy, a joint appearance with her and Seehofer in Munich on
Monday did little to dispel the appearance of disunity.
Even Merkel’s
allies are warning of Merkel fatigue. “Is Germany tired of Merkel?”
the right-leaning Bild asked Tuesday.
While the Schulz
effect may be more about appearance than substance (he has yet to
present a program and his political positions hew close to Merkel’s),
his energetic style and fresh face have resonated with voters hungry
for a mainstream alternative to the chancellor and his predecessor as
SPD chief, Sigmar Gabriel.
Germans view Schulz
as untainted by the political compromises the party has made in the
grand coalition.
Though Gabriel
enjoyed strong backing within the SPD, his tendency to reverse course
on important political questions cost him voter trust.
Indeed, what many
observers saw as Schulz’s main handicap — his relative obscurity
in German politics — is turning out to be his biggest asset. A
Germany comedy show asked a random sample of German pedestrians this
week what Schulz did before he became SPD chief. Most drew a blank. A
young woman who professed support for Schulz couldn’t identify him
in a photograph.
Making Europe Great
Again
Even though he has
belonged to the SPD’s senior leadership for years, helping to set
the party’s direction, Schulz is viewed by many Germans as
untainted by the political compromises the party has made in the
grand coalition.
Conservatives have
been trying to pour cold water on Schulz’s candidacy, describing
him as an untested politician who knows more about Brussels than
Germany. So far, the Christian Democrats’ attempts to discredit
him, by drawing attention to his generous salary and perks as
European Parliament president, for example, have fallen on deaf ears.
That may well change
as the campaign heats up. But what worries Merkel’s camp is that
Schulz’s strengths, his rhetorical skills and newcomer appeal, are
qualities Merkel can’t match.
That’s already
apparent on social media. A Reddit forum called the_schulz (a play on
Trump’s “The Donald” moniker) has become a sensation, spawning
a flurry of pro-Schulz memes and the acronym “MEGA,” for Making
Europe Great Again.
Though half in jest,
the often exaggerated testimonials, including regular references to
Schulz as “Chancellor God,” are creating buzz around Schulz’s
campaign, adding to its momentum.
Underscoring the
importance social media is likely to play in the coming months,
Schulz thanked his Reddit supporters with a personal video.
“You’ve
unleashed a wave that is a big help for me,” he said. “I am aware
of your support. It is engaging, creative and thoroughly enjoyable.”
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