Trump
begins year-long process to formally exit Paris climate agreement
Exit will
not be final until a day after the 2020 elections, however many organizations
are keeping the US in the climate crisis fight
Emily
Holden in Washington
Mon 4 Nov
2019 20.44 GMT
Donald
Trump is moving to formally exit the Paris climate agreement, making the United
States the only country in the world that will not participate in the pact, as
global temperatures are set to rise 3C and worsening extreme weather will drive
millions into poverty.
The
paperwork sent by the US government to withdraw begins a one-year process for
exiting the deal. The Trump administration will not be able to finalize its
exit until a day after the presidential election in November 2020.
But
organizers of local city and state efforts to curb the crisis across America
say the US is still trying to play a role in fighting the climate crisis,
despite the actions of the federal government.
Carl Pope,
vice chair of the group America’s Pledge, said its members – who are vowing to
keep fighting the climate emergency – produce more than half the country’s
heat-trapping emissions and represent about 70% of the US gross domestic
product. Another organization, the US Climate Alliance, includes the governors
of 25 states, representing 55% of the US population.
In the
Paris agreement, the US agreed to cut its heat-trapping pollution at least 26%
below 2005 levels by 2025.
Dozens of
countries are also pursuing goals to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. But they
represent only about 11% of the world’s climate footprint and exclude the
biggest emitters: China, the US and India.
Staying on
par with those more advanced countries would require the US government to
eliminate pollution from coal and natural gas powered electricity plants,
transportation, manufacturing facilities and agriculture. To meet those aims,
local action by itself is not likely to be enough.
“We don’t
think it’s likely just with the states we have, we think we need the whole
country to be moving together,” Pope said. “The bad news is, it’s reasonably
clear that we need some time pretty soon to get a federal government that can
help.”
Trump’s
administration has alternately ignored or denied the climate crisis. His
agencies are nixing requirements for power plants and cars, and bolstering
fossil fuels whenever possible. He promised to exit the Paris agreement during
his campaign, calling it a bad deal for the US economy.
The
Democratic frontrunners challenging Trump have all said they would set the country
on a path to neutralize its climate pollution by 2050, but they would face
significant opposition from Republicans and industry as they try to usher
ambitious laws into effect.
Nate
Hultman, director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Global
Sustainability and lead author of this year’s America’s Pledge report, pointed
to laws enacted in 2019 in New Mexico, Nevada, Washington, Maine, New York,
Washington DC, and Puerto Rico for 100% clean energy targets. Hawaii and
California already had such laws.
Together,
they represent 16% of the nation’s electricity, more than doubling the share
from a year ago, he said.
“Another
way to think about it is that Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris
agreement is supported in reality by only about 30% of the economy and 35% of
the population,” Hultman said.
Even once
the US withdraws, the country will be able to participate as an observer in
international climate negotiations.
But despite
the efforts of subnational governments, recent analysis shows the US is still
far off track from its commitments, regardless of whether Trump pulls out of
the Paris agreement. In the most optimistic scenario, the US could reach only
19% below 2005 levels by 2025, according to the economic research firm Rhodium
Group, which considers only federal and state policies that are adopted and
enforceable.
The US is
also far from neutralizing climate emissions by the middle of the century,
which many experts say will be necessary for all countries in order to avert
the worst of the crisis.
“We know we
are currently far off track to get to net zero by 2050,” said Kate Larsen,
director of Rhodium’s international energy and climate research. “But we can still
get there with a serious shift in policy in the coming years.”
Alden
Meyer, director of strategy and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists,
said the US withdrawal won’t change the dynamics of international negotiations
because other countries have known it was coming.
“Where the
jury is out is the effect it will have on the willingness of other countries to
increase the ambition of their current Paris pledges, as everyone acknowledges
is essential if you’re going to have any chances of meeting the Paris
temperature limitations goals,” Meyer said. He added that non-government
climate groups in China have said the US withdrawal is being cited as an
example of why China shouldn’t increase its own ambitions.
“For any
country thinking about whether or not to increase its ambition, this is
something that domestic opponents of that can use,” Meyer said.
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