The
Brexit nightmare is becoming reality. The remain camp is in denial
Natalie Nougayrède
Saturday 9 April
2016 08.00 BST
From Cameron’s
Panama Papers debacle to the weakness of Merkel and Hollande, the
omens for Britain remaining in the EU get poorer by the day. Does
anyone care?
A perfect storm is
brewing and it could take Britain out of the European Union. Right
now it’s hard to see what, or who, will thwart that scenario. For
months I thought Brexit was unlikely. Now, I’m alarmed. The push
factors are piling up. It’s not just that the gap between remain
and leave has been narrowing in opinion polls – perhaps the polls
need to be taken with a pinch of salt. What’s so worrying is that
developments in the UK and events beyond it are together setting the
stage for a train-wreck. For Britain and EU alike, Brexit would be a
tremendous loss. Yet a whiff of fatalism in the air, or at least a
careless passivity, makes the situation especially dangerous.
To seriously
contemplate Brexit is almost a taboo – there’s a great deal of
comment, but few see it as a reality. Officials in other European
states refrain from making open statements: partly for fear of
negatively influencing the referendum, but mostly because they are in
denial. A friend at the EU commission recently told me that its staff
are banned from organising any meetings to discuss the possible
effects of Brexit, in case it leaks and EU institutions appear
defeatist. This amounts to sticking heads in the sand.
With less than 11
weeks to the vote, the reasons things are going wrong are easy to
list. David Cameron, the British prime minister, is now politically
weakened by the Panama Papers fallout. Like it or not, his personal
credibility affects the credibility of his message on Europe. The
Dutch referendum result this week has brought added ammunition to the
Brexit campaign. Nigel Farage was swift to tweet: “big No to EU.
Hooray!”
The Brussels terror,
so soon after Paris, only increases the pull-up-the-drawbridge
syndrome
External factors
driving Brexit are no less daunting. The slowdown in refugee
movements across the Mediterranean – brought about by the EU-Turkey
deal – is likely to be only temporary. Not just because warmer
weather will make crossings easier, but because the “cessation of
hostilities” in Syria has now all but collapsed. More Syrians will
want to seek safety abroad. And more TV images of refugees will feed
British anxieties about immigration, which is at the heart of the
referendum debate.
Add to all that the
impact of the Brussels attacks, so soon after the Paris terror. To
many British people these events made Europe look frightening because
of its very vulnerability. And that increases the
pull-up-the-drawbridge syndrome.
Barack Obama is
expected to visit the UK in a few weeks to make the case for remain.
That is good news, but it’s hard to ignore that he is a lame duck
president who recently criticised Europeans for being “free riders”
in the global order – which didn’t go down too well among those
who worry about the strength of America’s commitment to Europe’s
security. Meanwhile, Obama’s entry into the referendum debate has
already been slammed by Brexiters as US meddling in national affairs.
It could be argued
that the remain camp has not yet pumped up the volume, that it’s
still early days to be alarmist. Some British students are just
starting to campaign, and they are doing so eagerly. One media
outfit, InFacts.org, is actively exposing the many myths that
Brexiters are spreading. The Labour party has made remain its
official policy. But its grassroots activists will only put energy
into that message after the UK’s local elections in May – and
that could be too late. Also, the credibility of Jeremy Corbyn, the
Labour leader, as a pro-EU voice leaves much to be desired.
Three years ago
Cameron put the future of the UK – and even its territorial
integrity (think Scotland) – at stake by setting off towards an
in-out referendum on the EU as a way of managing his own party. It is
obvious he has failed to put internal Tory dissent to rest. That
Boris Johnson has sided with leave brings to mind how in 2005 Laurent
Fabius, one of France’s socialist heavyweights, opted for no
against his own party’s leadership in the referendum campaign on
the EU constitution. That led to disastrous results – despite a
majority of the French media calling for a yes vote.
In Britain the media
has long been Eurosceptic. Even the BBC seems hesitant these days.
The Daily Telegraph describes the EU as either a threatening entity
for Britain, or too weak an institution to protect it.
And long gone are
the days when authoritative European voices could reach out to
British voters in a convincing manner – as when Jacques Delors
singlehandedly swayed the British left towards a pro-European
position in 1988. The French president, François Hollande, is
dismally weak, and Angela Merkel is less politically sturdy than she
once was. Populist movements whose leaders believe they stand to
benefit from a British exit are on the rise across the continent.
The deeper
phenomenon at work is a wider one. British society suffers from an
identity crisis not unlike those that have hit other western
countries in the wake of globalisation and the 2008 financial crisis.
Fragmentation is spreading everywhere as nations become more
inward-looking and worried about how the world is changing. In the
British case this general sense of disarray now has the opportunity
to express itself in a referendum.
Britain’s image
has often been associated with common decency, sober assessment and
cool-headedness. But this is an age of extremes when moderate voices
are fast drowned out by radical slogans. Of course, Cassandras have
been wrong before about the European project. The eurozone has held
together. Grexit didn’t happen. Merkel may be weaker, but she has
not lost power. Yet it would be foolish not to see that the omens for
Britain remaining in the EU are very poor.
But does anyone
care? If they do, they need to wake up now and shout stop.
.webp)
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