Dutch
referendum on Vladimir Putin
Russia
looms large in the coming vote on EU-Ukraine agreement.
By ADDIE SCHULTE
4/1/16, 5:32 AM CET
AMSTERDAM — The
Netherlands holds a referendum next week on whether the EU should
work more closely with Ukraine, but the campaign is just as much
about Vladimir Putin.
On the surface,
Dutch voters will decide if they should accept a treaty to strengthen
political and economic ties with the country of 46 million. The
agreement was the spark for the 2014 Ukrainian revolution that led to
the overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych’s government, which
had reversed course under pressure from Russia and scuppered the
so-called association deal.
A Dutch vote against
the agreement, while not legally binding, would be hard for the
government here to ignore. It would damage months of efforts by
Brussels and Kiev to tie Ukraine more tightly to the West, which
Moscow had worked desperately to stop. Polls show No is in the lead.
Proponents of the
referendum — two Euroskeptic organizations and GeenPeil, an
organization created by the right-wing GeenStijl blog — seized on
the treaty as an example of the EU flouting democracy by not
consulting voters.
That they succeeded
in collecting more than 400,000 signatures over the Ukraine issue was
a surprise, as there are no tight links between Ukraine and the
Netherlands. Even trade is limited, although the Netherlands does
have an important economic relationship with Russia.
While Ukraine may be
almost an afterthought to many in the Netherlands, Putin is not.
“Putin is the
central theme of the campaign, and we did our best to bring that
about,” said Joshua Livestro, one of the founders of the StemVoor
(Vote Yes) organization. “Do you want to give Putin leeway or do
you oppose him? When you talk about relations with Ukraine, it is
inevitable that this question comes up sooner or later.”
The Putin problem
Supporters of the
Ukraine agreement see the Russian leader as a bully who has to be
taught a lesson. In their view, rejecting the accord would betray
Ukrainians, boost the Kremlin and reward Russia’s aggression
against Ukraine.
A digitally
manipulated poster created by Yes backers and displayed in the
Amsterdam subway shows a passionate kiss between populist Dutch
politician Geert Wilders, who opposes the treaty, and the Russian
president.
“Yes, Putin would
like to see Europe fall apart. But if you ignore the verdict of
voters time and again … you are to blame for the collapse, and not
Putin” — GeenPeil
Opponents of the
Ukraine agreement think Russia has legitimate concerns about NATO and
EU encroachment into its sphere of influence. Tying the Netherlands
more closely with Kiev risks alienating Russia, and potentially
involves the Netherlands with Ukraine’s corrupt and ineffective
government, opponents argue.
One of the
referendum’s initiators argues that the vote isn’t about Putin.
“It’s about the direction the EU is heading,” GeenPeil wrote.
“Yes, Putin would like to see Europe fall apart. But if you ignore
the verdict of voters time and again … you are to blame for the
collapse, and not Putin.”
Not all opponents of
the treaty agree.
“It’s true that
the referendum is also about relations between the EU and Russia,”
said Harry van Bommel, an MP for the Euroskeptic Socialist Party and
one of the most active No campaigners. “But neither Putin nor the
Ukrainian people decide what we think. We make our own analysis.”
Van Bommel said
Ukraine is of utmost strategic and military importance to Russia, and
Moscow sees the treaty as a threat. The agreement could entangle the
EU in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he warned. “The EU could become
involved in a Ukrainian attempt to recapture the Crimea,” he said,
referring to the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014.
Livestro said the
referendum suits Russia, which is already working to destabilize the
EU by supporting Euroskeptic parties like France’s National Front.
The war in eastern
Ukraine came into sharp focus for Dutch voters in 2014.
Russian-backed separatists were generally blamed for shooting down
Malaysian Airlines flight 17, killing 298. Nearly 200 victims on the
airliner, which took off from Amsterdam, were from the Netherlands.
But MH17 doesn’t enter into the debate often.
When Bert Lanting,
an editor at De Volkskrant, one of the leading newspapers in the
Netherlands, wrote that a vote against the treaty is a vote for the
people probably responsible the killings, GeenStijl and other
opponents accused him of abusing the dead to make a political
statement.
Though most polls
show the No side ahead, the gap is closing.
One opinion poll
suggested an even split, with about 25 percent in each camp. The
threshold for the referendum result to be considered valid by the
government is 30 percent. Another survey in late February showed that
almost half of Dutch voters were not aware of the referendum, but
that was before the campaign started seriously.
For the Dutch
government, currently holding the rotating EU presidency, a No vote
would be an embarrassment and an unwanted problem to solve.
If there is a valid
vote against the treaty, the Dutch parliament said it would accept
the verdict, while the government has only said it will “reconsider”
the treaty. It may ask for an opt-out, as 27 out of 28 member
countries have ratified the agreement, which has also received the
backing of the Dutch parliament. No one expects the referendum to
scrap the treaty, which has been provisionally in force since the
beginning of the year.
The political impact
would be greater. For the Dutch government, currently holding the
rotating EU presidency, a No vote would be an embarrassment and an
unwanted problem to solve in a period of multiple crises.
European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker said in early January that Russia would
“pick the fruits of an easy victory,” if the association
agreement is rejected.
“A No vote will be
celebrated in the Russian media as a major triumph,” Livestro said.
“It will be a PR victory, even if it doesn’t change much on the
ground.”
Van Bommel said he
thinks there would be similar joy in the Kremlin in the event of a
narrow Yes result. He predicted that outcome would help Putin because
the EU would be weakened by its association with war-torn and corrupt
Ukraine.
“It’s a win-win
situation for him,” van Bommel said.
Authors:
Addie Schulte
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