5
deadlines to watch on the EU-Turkey migration deal
New
threats emerge to the agreement to control migrant flows.
By JACOPO BARIGAZZI
3/29/16, 5:30 AM CET
Making the
controversial EU-Turkey migration deal work was always going to be a
huge logistical challenge. Now that the terror attacks in Brussels
have stirred up fresh opposition, it’s a political one too.
Even before the
attacks, EU leaders warned that major elements of the deal reached
this month would be difficult to implement, from the mass
mobilization of officials and resources needed in Greece to process
arriving migrants to the ability and willingness of some countries to
accept even the smallest number of asylum seekers.
Under the deal,
Greek authorities detain newly arrived migrants and send them back to
Turkey; in exchange, the EU agreed to resettle up to 72,000 Syrian
refugees directly from Turkey and speed up financial aid to help
Turkey care for the 2.7 million Syrian refugees it is hosting. Those
who arrived before the deal came into force will either have to be
sent back to their countries of origin, if they are illegal migrants,
or have their asylum claims examined in Greece.
Already, there are
signs that the deal is in trouble. Two EU officials said Turkey has
been slow to enact certain terms: It has authorized no new returns of
migrants under the readmission agreement with Athens and is not
moving forward on providing full protection to non-Syrian refugees.
Officials also said it is too early to measure how well Turkey is
doing in preventing additional migrants from leaving on their way to
Greece.
Here are five key
issues that will determine whether the deal succeeds or fails:
1. Security concerns
After the terrorist
attacks in Brussels, Poland shut its doors to refugees. “I say very
clearly that I see no possibility at this time of immigrants coming
to Poland,” Prime Minister Beata Szydło said Wednesday. Other
countries could follow.
Diplomats fear that
countries that never wanted to take part in the relocation of 160,000
refugees across Europe will use the terrorist threat as an excuse to
pull out. They also say that countries could use security concerns to
beef up their background checks on refugees, making the whole
relocation process even slower that it is now. If any refugees are
linked by investigators to the terrorist attacks it could be a
further threat to the deal.
What to watch for,
and when: Unless there is another terror attack, by the middle of
April it should be clear if countries have grown even more reluctant
to take in refugees.
Refugees and
migrants on a rubber boat arrive at the Greek island of Lesbos |
TR/AFP via Getty Images
Refugees and
migrants on a rubber boat arrive at the Greek island of Lesbos |
TR/AFP via Getty Images
2. Migrant flows
This is the major
point for the EU. If migrant flows in the coming weeks continue to be
high, then the deal is virtually dead.
There is a line in
the joint declaration approved by EU and Turkish leaders that makes
it clear: “Should the number of returns exceed the numbers provided
for above, this mechanism will be discontinued.” Which means that
if the number of Syrians returned to Turkey is above the 72,000
figure, the deal is breached. “It’s a way to keep pressure on the
Turks to keep their borders shut,” said a diplomat.
What to watch for,
and when: It will be clear by the end of April if the deal has had
any impact on reducing migrant flows. Only monthly figures are
reliable, officials say, and with better weather likely to make it
easier for people to move, the comparison with data from spring last
year will show if there had been any reduction.
Since the agreement
took effect March 20, the flow of migrants has been uneven.
Last Thursday marked
the first day since the crisis started that no migrants arrived in
Greece, according to Greek government data, but officials say the
drop was an exception mainly due to bad weather. On Friday, another
161 migrants arrived and despite warnings of forced removals, a few
hundred arrivals came each day, with a peak last Monday of 1,162.
German Chancellor
and Chairwoman of the German Christian Democrats (CDU) Angela Merkel
speaks to supporters
3. Visa
liberalization
This is the major
point for the Turks. The deal says that visa liberalization for
Turkish citizens traveling to the EU will take place at the latest in
June, “provided that all benchmarks have been met.”
That’s easier said
than done. Out of 72 benchmarks that Turkey must implement, Ankara
has fulfilled 37. Of the remaining 35, 12 have not been fulfilled or
only partially met, and work is progressing more smoothly on the
remaining 23.
It took Ankara years
to implement the first 37 benchmarks, so “we don’t think that
Turkey will manage to meet all the remaining benchmarks in a few
weeks,” said Alexandra Stiglmayer, senior analyst at the European
Stability Initiative, a think tank. “I am sure that if Turkey does
not get visa liberalization the deal is off or delayed.”
What to watch for,
and when: Here there’s a hard deadline. If by the end of May,
Turkey hasn’t managed to meet the benchmarks, the deal is in
trouble.
4. Greece’s
‘Herculean’ task
About 4,000 people
are being mobilized to handle the logistics of the deal, some 2,500
of them from EU member countries, according to an estimate from the
Commission.
Tribunals will have
to process asylum claims and any resulting appeals quickly. Refugee
identification centers, so-called hotspots, have been turned into
detention centers for those migrants who are to be returned. Greece
and Turkey have to swiftly enact legislative changes to make the deal
fully legal.
European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker wasn’t just making a Greek analogy
when he described it as a “Herculean task.” The return of Syrians
to Turkey and their resettlement is supposed to start April 4.
What to watch for,
and when: The next few weeks will show whether Athens is managing or
collapsing under the refugee burden. Small protests have already
taken place in some detention centers. After April 4, it will be
clear if the resettlement and return of Syrians is working.
5. Legal challenges
Many legal aspects
remain to be addressed, including the issue of Greece recognizing
Turkey as a safe third country, a key point for sending migrants back
there. A Commission spokesman said early last week that Greece would
introduce legislation soon, and in the meantime asylum requests
lodged as of March 20 would not receive a decision until the new
legislation is adopted.
Some humanitarian
organizations suspended some of their activities on the Greek
islands, complaining that registration centers were being turned into
detention centers.
What to watch for,
and when: If Greece does not change its laws and Turkey is still
foot-dragging on granting full protection for non-Syrians, experts
say, it will be another sign the deal is in trouble.
EU officials say
they hope that the message that migrants will be jailed and returned
would be enough to significantly discourage new arrivals by the end
of April.
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