London Playbook: Leveling up — Ticking up — Doubling down

 

London Playbook: Leveling up — Ticking up — Doubling down

BY ALEX WICKHAM

February 2, 2022 8:02 am

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/leveling-up-ticking-up-doubling-down/

 

Good Wednesday morning.

 

DRIVING THE DAY

OVER TO THE GOVER: Boris Johnson’s government tries to move on from the Partygate scandal today as it unveils the flagship policy of this administration in the form of the long-awaited Leveling Up White Paper. When Johnson appointed Michael Gove as his “leveling up secretary” last year, the prime minister told his old adversary he was trusting him to come up with the blueprint that would likely decide the Conservatives’ fate at the next election. It’s been some time in the making, and this afternoon Gove will announce 12 “missions” to save Britain’s “forgotten communities” — with a target that all 12 objectives will be achieved by 2030. The message to voters and Tory MPs is that Johnson is asking for a decade in power to achieve the aims of the 2019 manifesto and keep the promises that saw him break down Labour’s red wall. But as doubts about the PM’s position persist, Gove faces a difficult task convincing Westminster and beyond that today’s announcement offers real substance — not to mention money — beyond the often vague rhetoric that has defined leveling up over the last few years.

 

Failure not an option: In an interview with the BBC’s Alex Forsyth last night, Gove set himself a high bar. The leveling up secretary warned the government would “fail” people who voted Conservative in 2019 unless it succeeded in its “moral mission” to improve the lives of people in “overlooked communities” outside the “elites in London.” In remarks pre-briefed to journalists, Gove criticized previous governments for leaving Britain “like a jet firing on only one engine,” vowing to end “this historic injustice” and “call time on the postcode lottery.” A senior government source who worked on the white paper told Playbook that leveling up is the answer to why the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016 and for Johnson in 2019. “People voted for Brexit because they felt ignored and undervalued. It was the same in 2019. COVID has delayed us from doing the things we want to do.”

 

Top lines: The trail from Gove’s department puts devolution at the center of the leveling up, promising the “biggest shift of power from Whitehall to local leaders in modern times, allowing “every part of England to get ‘London style’ powers and a mayor if they wish to.” It also claims equality of outcome is a cornerstone of Johnsonian ideology, boasting this is the “first time a government has placed narrowing spatial economic disparities at the heart of its agenda.”

 

These are big words … though government insiders were working hard to manage immediate expectations ahead of today’s announcement. Playbook is cautioned not to expect a final plan for how to fix all the problems the country faces, but rather a “set of clear principles” that will guide policy decision-making over the next few years. “This is not the final word, it won’t resolve everything. It’s a big downpayment on what we can do,” the senior government source said.

 

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Picture 52 million bricks. That’s how many are needed to build the 10,000 new homes the Housing Growth Partnership has pledged to support by 2025. With Homes England, we’ve announced a further £300 million of funding to the Housing Growth Partnership as part of our commitment to help Britain recover. Find out more.**

 

So what are those principles? If you can’t wait for the document to drop when Gove gives a statement to the Commons after Prime Minister’s Questions, the BBC’s Lewis Goodall has been leaked the foreword, written by Gove and former Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane, which contains a lot of the key detail. The Times’ Henry Zeffman was also ahead of the pack with a scoop on what’s coming. Playbook reckons the 12 missions to be achieved by 2030 are the most interesting bit, so will run you through them quickly below.

 

Pay, employment and productivity will rise in every area of the U.K., with the gap between the most prosperous and other areas closing. 

Domestic public investment in research and development outside the Greater South East will increase by at least 40 percent.

Local public transport connectivity across the country will be “significantly closer” to the standards of London.

5G coverage for the majority of the population. 

The number of primary school children achieving the expected standard in reading, writing and maths will have “significantly increased” to 90 percent of children.

The number of people successfully completing high-quality skills training will have “significantly increased” by 200,000 per year.

The gap in healthy life expectancy between local areas where it is highest and lowest will have narrowed. By 2035 life expectancy will rise by five years.

“Well-being” will have improved in every area of the U.K. 

“Pride in place,” such as people’s satisfaction with their town center, will have risen in every area of the U.K.

The number of first-time buyers will increase in all areas. The number of non-decent rented homes will have halved.

Homicide, serious violence and neighborhood crime will have fallen.

Every part of England that wants one will have a devolution deal.

Snap analysis: My POLITICO colleague Esther Webber has this sharp take on what to look out for this afternoon, noting that while the above targets are noble enough, the funding for them still looks confused. Her areas to watch include:

 

Devolution detail — There are question marks over how areas will be supported to draw up and submit their plans, Esther writes. Schemes such as the “towns fund” in 2020 and “leveling up fund” last year caused controversy after many of the chosen towns were in Conservative strongholds while it was unclear why some other, less wealthy places had been left out. Local authorities could feel snubbed in all of this, as there is scant mention of their role so far and a risk of doubling up their functions.

New money — One reason for the hold-up to the white paper has been, according to multiple officials and government advisers, a tussle between Gove and Chancellor Rishi Sunak over funding. Esther notes Sunak has been far more willing to sign off on individual pots of money for specific projects than to make multi-year funding commitments aimed at big ideas such as, say, improving productivity. The senior government source insisted to Playbook that the criticism of a lack of new money was “bogus” as there hadn’t yet been detail on the departmental cash allocations announced at the spending review. They argued: “We have not yet said ‘It’s going to you Dan Jarvis’ [the South Yorkshire mayor]. For the person receiving it it’s definitely new money.”

Accountability — On the same day as the white paper launch, a report from the U.K.’s spending watchdog takes aim at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities’ “limited understanding of what has worked well in previous local growth programs due to a lack of consistent evaluation or monitoring.” As Esther says — and is plain to see above — some of the missions appear to be much more specific than others.

Scope — One of the criticisms frequently aimed at the leveling up strategy is that it seems to mean everything and nothing. The white paper will not do much to remedy that, covering an enormous range of policy areas from education and health to crime and the arts.

Keep an eye on … the Northern Powerhouse Partnership think tank’s analysis of the money due later. Director Henri Murison has a mixed early response: “The good news is that, after a few years in the wilderness, it looks like devolution is back on the agenda. There’s a lot to like: Innovation Accelerators will play a crucial role in breathing new life into manufacturing here in the north of England, while growing our existing strengths in health innovation. The bad news is that much of its impact will be undermined through a lack of funding.”

 

What will Labour say? That these are reheated and unambitious ideas without proper detail or funding. Shadow Leveling Up Secretary Lisa Nandy previews her Commons riposte: “Ministers have had two and a half years to get this right and all we been given is more slogans and strategies, with few new ideas. Boris Johnson’s answer to our communities calling for change is to shuffle the deckchairs — new government structures, recycled pots of money and a small refund on the money this Government have taken from us. This is not what we were promised. We deserve far more ambition this.” Labour MP Darren Jones has a decent spot, noting that many of Gove’s 12 missions are similar to the ambitions found in Theresa May’s now junked industrial strategy.

 

Austerity hangover: There is also the not insignificant problem for the Tories that Johnson and Gove’s overarching analysis is that successive governments have effectively driven much of Britain into the ground. For the last 12 years those governments have been Tory. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has a killer statistic that shows how the country has not just been leveled down under May and David Cameron, but became significantly less equal in terms of council spending on services. Between 2009-10 and 2019-20, spending on non-education services by councils in the most deprived areas fell by 31 percent per resident, almost twice as much as the councils serving the least deprived areas. The IFS’ damning conclusion: “This was a deliberate policy choice by the coalition government between 2010 and 2015.” (H/t Prospect’s Tom Clark.)

 

3 other missions: Playbook’s main question is that if today’s announcement is not the final plan, then what’s coming next? A Whitehall insider said last night that we can expect the government to try to focus on four key policies between now and the election: leveling up, borders, fighting crime (particularly violent crime and a “blitz” on anti-social behavior), and cost of living. We will see a lot more of Home Secretary Priti Patel, Policing Minister Kit Malthouse and Justice Secretary Dominic Raab in the coming months, the source said. Politics Home’s Adam Payne reckons there could also be a dedicated northern minister.

 

Leveling up taxes: It is increasingly obvious that the Conservative pitch next time round will also have a major tax element to it, after the early years of the Johnson government massively increased taxes. The Whitehall insider told Playbook that a new tax policy was fundamental to the next steps for leveling up: “We need to look at how we can use the levers we have to deal with the tax burden faced by poorer people, with targeted interventions on tax to help people in certain areas. We need a tax policy that is pro-working people, pro-red wall.” Does this mean more progressive taxes coming from the Tories that will benefit lower income people and see richer people pay more? That’s certainly the direction of travel some in government want to see … over to Rishi Sunak.

 

Get the wine and cheese out: Leveling up leads the BBC News bulletins this morning and Ukraine led last night, so that’s some small respite for No. 10. Gove and Nandy are on the broadcast round this morning.

 

PARTYGATE FALLOUT

NOT MOVING ON: Gove will be hoping to change the subject when he stands up at the despatch box, as Johnson will just have endured another half hour on Partygate at PMQs. The Westminster wisdom is that the prime minister should be safe until the police conclude their inquiries, though two major problems remain: the letters of no confidence sent by Tory MPs to 1922 committee Chair Graham Brady appear to be ticking up, and there is little sign yet that the public are in a forgiving mood.

 

POLL EXCLUSIVE: Playbook has some polling from JL Partners this morning showing the amount of work No. 10 has left to do. Shown two statements by the pollsters, 36 percent of Brits believe “We should all now move on from the Downing Street parties scandal,” compared with 55 percent who say “the investigation into and focus on the Downing Street parties should continue.” Some 61 percent still think Johnson should resign, with only 25 percent saying he should stay. A massive 78 percent want the Sue Gray report published in full (it will be following a No. 10 U-turn), and 82 percent think Johnson broke the rules. Monday’s Commons action does not appear to have gone down well with those paying attention — 62 percent say Johnson responded in the wrong way to the parties situation this week, with 21 percent saying he got it right, while 17 percent said they didn’t know.

 

THE MUMSNET VERDICT: Some 84 percent of Mumsnet users polled on Partygate after Sue Gray’s initial update was published agreed that Johnson should resign, according to a new monthly political briefing on what the forum’s 8 million users are talking about. The briefing, shared with Playbook, shows the extent to which the scandal has cut through to one of the U.K.’s most crucial groups of voters. It isn’t great reading for Johnson, with “party,” “rules” and “cake” among the words most frequently associated with him in the past month, while the “Mumsnet Swearometer” shows profanities spiked on the forum when new revelations of government parties broke. Interestingly it isn’t too encouraging for some of his would-be challengers either — mums’ favorite Jeremy Hunt got more votes in a “who should replace Boris?” thread than Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss put together.

 

TICKING UP: The more immediate danger is that it remains possible the threshold of 54 no-confidence letters needed to trigger a vote on Johnson’s future could still be met. There does not currently appear to be an organized effort to remove the PM, but Tory MPs believe enough letters could still go in “by accident,” as they trickle rather than flood into Brady’s office. Backbencher Peter Aldous put his letter in on Tuesday. The FT’s George Parker says we should watch out today for at least one more MP to publicly call for Johnson to resign. The BBC’s Iain Watson hears similar, noting that veteran Gary Streeter has suggested he will make a decision imminently. A former minister tells Watson he’s on the verge of sending a letter. Veteran Charles Walker announced his intention to retire from parliament to Channel 4 News’ Cathy Newman last night, saying he would “applaud” Johnson if he resigned.

 

More likely in May? Since we have no idea how many letters are in, it may be the case that the number needed to get to 54 is smaller than people generally think. The consensus view however remains that a confidence vote is some way off. A minister tells Iain Watson the letters will not hit 54 this week, this month, or next month — the implication being that most MPs will wait for the outcome of the police probe.

 

Any more for any more? On that note, two papers have Partygate developments this morning. The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith and Harry Yorke say Johnson was present in his Downing Street flat on November 13, 2020, when the alleged gathering took place following the departure of his aide Dominic Cummings. The Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges heard the same with his story about ABBA songs being heard. The Telegraph also reveals details of three more leaving events for a senior diplomat in America, a military commander and a senior culture department official. Johnson is said to have attended two of them. The Guardian’s Aubrey Allegretti, Rowena Mason and Peter Walker report the same and say the third bash was “prosecco-fuelled.”

 

2 U-turns in 24 hours: Fresh from the volte face on publishing the full Gray report once the police have finished their inquiry, No. 10 also flipped position on whether they’ll announce if Johnson gets a fixed penalty notice. They will have to, obviously.

 

Doubling down: The row over Johnson’s Jimmy Savile comments continues after he faced calls from his own side to withdraw the remark and criticism from Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle. Instead, Johnson doubled down on the claim speaking to the Sun’s Harry Cole on the flight back from Ukraine, insisting: “As far I’m aware, it’s fairly accurate.” BBC Reality Check found there is “no evidence that Sir Keir was involved at any point in the decision not to charge Savile.”

 

Fixing No. 10 latest: Still no news on who’s coming in during the much-promised shake-up of Johnson’s No. 10 operation. The FT’s Seb Payne and George Parker pick up fears among Tory MPs that Johnson’s loyalty to his team means he may not be able to meet MPs’ expectations following his promise of changes on Monday. One Johnson supporter tells the paper: “I am worried that there is a large gap between what MPs are expecting and what Boris is actually minded to do.” Guido reports Johnson is considering a ministerial reshuffle “imminently.” The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith says top civil servant Antonia Romeo will not be the new No. 10 permanent secretary. Former minister Liam Fox toured the studios yesterday pointedly refusing to comment on whether he’d be joining No. 10 or the whips office. Here’s his interview with Sky’s Sam Coates.

 

Going global: U.S. President Joe Biden’s Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed he had never been “ambushed by a cake” in response to questions about Partygate last night, MailOnline’s Wills Robinson reports. Psaki added that U.S.-U.K. relations had not changed “despite cake in anyone’s faces.”