OPINION
Vladimir Putin – the man who just united Europe
Europe appears to have decided to actually defend
freedom and no longer tolerate Putin's oligarchs. - that leaves Britain and its
capital city, now known as Londongrad, in a delicate position
By DENIS
MACSHANE
LONDON,
TODAY, 16:40
War is
famous throughout history as the midwife of revolution. But no-one could have
imagined just a short week ago when Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of a
European democracy, Ukraine, that in just a few days there would be a
revolutionary change not seen in Europe, since — well — the days of the
Bolshevik upheavals of 1917.
In short,
Putin has united Europe as never before.
We are
witnessing the emergence of the EU as a military power. We are seeing Finland
and Sweden consider joining Nato thus reversing decades of non-Nato policy.
We are
seeing Germany increasing its defence spend by €100bn - and with the backing of
the Greens and Free Democrats.
We have
seen Hungary, long Putin's puppet state in the EU, breaking with its master and
voting with the other European democracies.
From
Ireland to Poland, Europe is opening its arms to refugee immigrants from
Ukraine after years in which Europe shut or tried to shut its doors to
foreigners.
It is hard
to know where to stop as this Copernican revolution in what Europe is and what
it can and must do takes root.
When the
crisis is over, Brussels should erect a statue to Vladimir Putin as the man who
woke Europe from a long sleep as its leaders decided to accept responsibilities
they had long shunned.
By far the
most important decision is that Europe has decided to become a military power.
The European Commission will purchase and send arms to Ukraine. And everyone
agrees — mainstream right, left, green and liberal parties.
The main
outliers are the far-rightists like Eric Zemmour, or France's Jeremy Corbyn,
the ageing leftist demagogue, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Europe has
decided to use its financial system to press the Russian elites to tell Putin
to stop. Like Eisenhower in 1956 during the Suez adventurism (who froze the
essential flow of dollars to a United Kingdom which invaded Egypt contrary to
international law), the EU has blocked key Russian banks from accessing
international funds via the global banking transfer system, Swift.
The British
elite in 1956 reacted by removing prime minister Anthony Eden after being asked
by Eisenhower over Suez, "Are you mad?" - much as veteran
Putin-watchers wonder if the ranting Russian leader is fully stable.
The hope is
that the Russian oligarchs and siloviki, the network of former KGB agents who
installed Putin in 1999 to ensure they would control Russian wealth, will now
turn on him as the EU and US cuts the flow of funds.
The German
parliament in a short session decided to increase defence spending to two per
cent of GDP. Two percent of German GDP is £66bn — and German defence spending
will by 26 percent more than that of the UK.
Germany
will build a new generation of warplanes and tanks with France. This is music
to the ears of French president Emmanuel Macron's concept of European
"strategic autonomy".
The rise of
an integrated European defence industry building common planes, helicopters,
warships, tanks, missiles and even rifles will marginalise the UK defence
industry - which will either have to join in, as Britain did when it joined the
Airbus consortium, or just roll over and became wholly dependent on the US.
The
Macron-Scholz tandem
Olaf Scholz
with one short but decisive speech moves into the front rank of European and
democratic world leaders. Assuming (as is likely) Emmanuel Macron wins a second
five-year term in April the Macron-Scholz tandem will be the dominant
leadership of a European Union that has not enjoyed effective leadership this
century.
Josep
Borrell, the Spanish-Catalan EU foreign policy chief, initially seen as
gaffe-prone when he took over from Federica Mogherini in 2019, has been
effective on TV in several languages explaining how Europe was taking on Putin.
Even
neutral Switzerland with its long tradition of being a home to oligarch money
from all over the world has lined up with the EU to disrupt Putin's finances
used to pay for his invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine.
The Polish
president has called for Ukraine to be fast-tracked for EU membership. This
would be a much bigger challenge to Putin – having a democracy on his borders
based around European values – than Ukraine joining Nato.
It will
require dramatic reform to support president Zelensky's call for the
"de-oligarchisation" of Ukraine.
Europe has
shut its airspace to Russian planes which will ground the private jets that
ferry the Putin oligarch around especially to their luxury mansions in
Hampshire and £250m apartments in Knightsbridge.
Each move
is not only an effective non-military attack on Putin but also a remarkable
expression of a united European polity.
Brexit
Britain
Meanwhile,
"Global Britain", as Boris Johnson has tried to recast Brexit
Britain, has been full of bellicose rhetoric against Putin, whose oligarchs
have made Londongrad their home-from-home. However, prime minister Johnson has
so far refused to join the move from Ireland to Poland to open borders (and
European hearts) to Ukrainian refugees.
The very
essence of Brexit was that the English should deny access to Britain to fellow
Europeans. The UK has a sizeable Ukrainian population but London's response so
far has been cruel and mean-minded.
More
important is how Brexit Britain handles this new energy, determination, and
willingness to increase military spend by Europe. If Germany's Scholz and
France's Macron forge an alliance to build up EU defence capability, long a
demand of Washington, where does Britain fit in?
Of course,
as days unfold, much of the old nation-first EU — of which Britain was a
charter member — may resurface and this Putin-spawned European unity is seen to
evaporate.
But history
suggests that once "Europe" decides to do something, that becomes the
norm.
Europe
appears to have decided to do defence of freedom and to no longer tolerate
Putin oligarchs. That leaves Britain and its capital city now known as
Londongrad in a delicate position.
AUTHOR BIO
Denis
MacShane is a British former Minister of Europe who supported the Orange
Revolution is 2004/5 and was in Odessa as an observer at the 2019 parliamentary
election in Ukraine. He writes on European politics and policy.
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