London Playbook: Gray Day — [REDACTED] — Points East

 

London Playbook: Gray Day — [REDACTED] — Points East

BY ALEX WICKHAM

January 31, 2022 8:00 am

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/gray-day-redacted-points-east/

 

Good Monday morning.

 

DRIVING THE DAY

GRAY DAY: Sue Gray’s report into the Downing Street Partygate scandal is expected imminently, with Whitehall sources telling Playbook it will finally be handed to Boris Johnson and then published “early” this week, possibly as soon as today. The much-edited public version of Gray’s findings will be very different from what we might have seen if the Metropolitan Police hadn’t waded into the saga with their own investigation last week. Instead, she will only make “minimal reference” to the eight alleged parties the Met are probing. Nonetheless, it still represents the most serious threat to Johnson’s premiership so far and its release will at last move the story onto whether Conservative MPs are prepared to oust the prime minister from office. At the moment it feels like Playbook begins every Monday’s email by telling you how it will be another dramatic news week. Both at home and abroad, the stakes really don’t get much higher than what’s coming up over the next few days.

 

How Gray Day will happen: As this email goes out, Johnson still hasn’t received the report from Gray, although as far as Playbook can tell there is now nothing left to delay that from happening any longer. Everyone in government who Playbook spoke to over the weekend expects it to come very soon. When it does eventually appear on his desk, the PM will have a few hours to digest its contents and plan his response. The report will then be made available for the public to read on the gov.uk website and Johnson wants to make a statement to the Commons as soon as possible. The earliest that could realistically happen is this afternoon.

 

What it will say: Everyone not living under a rock now knows that Friday’s spectacular intervention by the Met brains trust means Gray won’t be publishing her full findings. She will not be able to go into detail on the potentially law-breaking events, which let’s face it are the juicy ones that pose the gravest danger to Johnson’s position. This may mean the report we see this week is somewhat underwhelming in terms of any shock revelations or damning findings. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will be totally neutered. Gray is likely to be able to publish what will inevitably be some stinging criticisms of the PM, his No. 10 team and the culture in the building.

 

How it lands: The language Gray chooses to use in these conclusions will be fundamental to what happens next. The publication of the report will kick off an incredibly tense and uncertain few hours where the reaction of Tory MPs will ultimately determine where the story goes. Johnson’s critics will of course seize upon any especially harsh words. Johnson’s supporters will talk up any areas where Gray may be more sympathetic. It is possible that the whole publication becomes mired in a row about process, such as the very reasonable question of what on earth is the point in publishing a report that leaves out any definitive findings on all the key charges. Expect to hear cries of a cover-up or worse from some opposition politicians. Johnson will inevitably argue that his fate as PM should not be decided before the police investigation concludes, quite possibly months from now.

 

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The PM’s response: When Johnson gets up at the despatch box, he will need to convince his MPs that he has a plan to win back an angry public and ensure that Downing Street functions properly for the rest of his time in office — in other words, that he can act on the conclusions of the Gray report. This will likely mean both personnel and policy changes. One Tory MP told Playbook yesterday that they would be satisfied if Johnson made a commitment to improving his top team and changing the policy direction of the government. “He needs to show he’s serious about change and has listened,” they said. The PM is reportedly considering a raft of structural changes to how Downing Street works, including possibly creating a new permanent secretary for No. 10, or bringing in a senior Tory MP to help with the day-to-day running of the building. Another MP said Johnson essentially had to demonstrate he would pursue more right-wing policies on tax and spending, Brexit, immigration and other issues — more on that in a bit.

 

Direction of travel: It is very difficult to predict how this is all going to go, however it has to be said No. 10 will be going into the week reassured on two fronts. They survived the Sunday papers, and indeed the long-read by the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman reported that Johnson’s shadow operation has been effective and that the situation with Tory MPs has turned away from regicide toward working with Johnson. Shippers concluded: “A week ago it looked as if pigs would fly before Johnson’s position improved. MPs were metaphorically fattening him up for the kill. This weekend, though, Johnson’s team are hopeful that the fightback and machinations at the Met mean that, for now, he is one greased pig who will not be going to market.”

 

Are Tories shifting back? Crucially, this analysis was echoed by Paul Goodman, editor of the Tory “bible” Conservative Home, in an essential blog on Sunday. Goodman revealed that a majority of Tory members surveyed by his website now think Partygate is overblown, a marked improvement on a month ago. Critically, Goodman believes that shift is also reflected among Tory MPs. He writes: “My sense is that there has been a swingback in the Prime Minister’s favour among Conservatives MPs and Party members over the past fortnight. Why? First, the Tory MPs I’ve spoken to say by and large have had less correspondence about ‘partygate’ than about Dominic Cummings’ visit to Barnard Castle. It has faded away and this has influenced their view. Second, there is an unwillingness among many Party members to see Cummings’ campaign win. Plus a blob of Johnson’s Remain-fixated, Labour, media and other opponents. Third, the Prime Minister’s Commons ‘fightback’ whipping campaign, organised by his Ministerial and other supporters, will have had some effect. Finally, a killer blow, proving that Johnson himself actually organised a Downing Street party during lockdown, has been absent.”

 

How it could all go wrong: No. 10 will be watching nervously for three things. First, Cabinet resignations. If a potential leadership challenger like Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss were to quit and call for Johnson to go, that would likely trigger a flood of no confidence letters from Tory MPs. However, the chancellor wrote a joint op-ed with the PM in the Sunday Times after winning a major internal battle over the National Insurance rise, so it would be strange for him to resign 24 hours later. Similarly, the foreign secretary is due in Russia imminently for talks with the Kremlin about Ukraine, so it would be odd for her to quit beforehand. Then there’s the question of whether there’s a coordinated move from Tory backbenchers to send letters to 1922 committee Chair Graham Brady, or whether the letters are currently at a higher number than expected, and so tick over the 54 threshold required to trigger a confidence vote. Thirdly, there’s always the possibility of another strategically timed leak aimed at getting the letters over the line.

 

What it may come down to: A Tory MP told Playbook last night that the key question they’d be asking when they read Gray’s report would be: “Is there enough in her language that allows us to keep him?”

 

If the letters do hit 54 … then Conservative MPs will hold a confidence vote on Johnson’s future, as soon as 24 hours after the threshold is met. If Johnson were to lose that vote he would be out and a Tory leadership contest would follow.

 

If the letters don’t hit 54 … then Johnson would live to fight another day — the greased piglet would slip through — and he would likely be safe until the next crunch points: the conclusion of the police probe and the local elections in May.

 

What Tory MPs are watching: Last night’s Channel 4 documentary by Andrew Neil asked whether Johnson had “run out of road,” and included Leveling Up Secretary Michael Gove’s admission that: “The fact that there were mistakes that were made by people in positions of influence and prestige is incredibly difficult.” Former Brexit Minister David Frost told Neil “never say never” when asked if he fancied being the next No. 10 chief of staff. The Sun’s Harry Cole was first with that rumor though notes the drawbacks: Frost’s hardcore policy views and the bruising nature of his exit from government.

 

What Operation Fightback will be pushing: Red wall poster boy and Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen has the definitive piece making the case for Johnson to stay in Times Red Box. Houchen writes: “The nonsense of what’s happening within the parliamentary party is so infuriating. If they vote to get rid of Boris they’ll be voting to lose the next election … If Boris is removed, the opportunity before us to rebalance our economy and society will be lost. Even worse, the levelling up agenda would be dead. Indeed, a communicator without the current prime minister’s unique skills would be fighting to be heard over the sound of a north London commentariat with ears only for the infighting within the Conservative Party. Meanwhile, voters in left behind areas would tune out, seeing themselves cheated of the prime minister they chose as their own and listening again to the siren voices of other parties both to the left and to the right.”

 

Burns after reading: Operation Fightback lieutenant and long-term Johnson ally Conor Burns has a piece in the Sun making a similar argument. Burns gives us a taste of the sort of rhetoric we can expect from the PM this week: “This is a man in the prime of life who is fizzing with energy, steely in determination and with an agenda to improve the lives and communities of every person in every part of our great country. Armed with the 80 seat majority Sun readers gave him just two years ago he is up for it. His faith in the British people is absolute and his determination to deliver for you is total.”

 

The opposite view … came from Johnson’s former aide turned nemesis Dominic Cummings in an interview with Tanya Gold for New York Magazine. Cummings explained why he has been leading the campaign to remove Johnson, calling the PM a “complete f**kwit” and claiming it is his “duty to get rid” of him, comparing it to “fixing the drains.” He also claimed Johnson told him: “I’m the f**king king around here and I’m going to do what I want.” The interview has had a mixed reaction — one Tory MP told Playbook: “After the NY Magazine interview people are finally twigging this is all a Cummings revenge campaign that the left and the media have run with.”

 

Costa living crisis: The Times carries a piece from another former No. 10 aide, Nikki da Costa, who blasts her former colleagues for failing to be “honest and upfront” about the Downing Street parties, arguing No. 10 had “failed as a collective” to uphold the standards it set the rest of the country on COVID restrictions. Da Costa reveals that No. 10 had looked at setting up “bereavement bubbles” for those who’d lost loved ones around the time of the alleged parties, but decided against it as it would “sent the wrong message to the public.”

 

Now read this: Writing for POLITICO, Marie Le Conte considers why Brits are so obsessed with Partygate.

 

Poll watch: Get ready for all manner of snap polls and focus groups in the hours and days after Gray drops, which Tory MPs will no doubt be poring over. In the meantime, Deltapoll finds Labour now leads on the “holy trinity” of Westminster voter intention, economic competence and leadership approval ratings. The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar has the story.