London Playbook: Back to the (home) office —
Question time — Wishing on a shooting star
BY
ANNABELLE DICKSON
JANUARY 3,
2023 8:03 AM CET
London
Playbook
By
ANNABELLE DICKSON
Good
Tuesday morning. This is Annabelle Dickson. Emilio Casalicchio will be with you
Wednesday morning.
Stargazing:
Put on your winter woolies and get out your deck chair this evening, a
spectacular Quadrantid meteor shower is expected to hit its peak tonight and
Wednesday — an ideal moment for some of SW1’s big-hitters to make a political
wish on a shooting star. The Royal Observatory has plenty more detail about the
science and what to expect here.
DRIVING THE
DAY
BACK TO THE
(HOME) OFFICE: The festive break is officially over, but don’t expect an easy
ride back into the office today. The rail network will again be paralyzed as
workers in the RMT union walkout. It is the first of two planned 48-hour
strikes by the union this week, with Aslef union train drivers set to be out on
strike on Thursday too. It is being billed as the worst week of rail disruption
for 30 years. Trains that do run will start later and finish much earlier.
Usual drill. Check the National Rail website before you set off.
Even if you
can get to the office: Health bosses would rather you didn’t leave your house
if you are still battling those pesky Christmas bugs which seem to have floored
half the nation over the holiday season. People with germs are being urged to
stay at home to stop the spread, and if they can’t isolate, to wear a face mask
in a bid to ease pressure on Britain’s overwhelmed emergency health system.
Susan Hopkins’ full U.K. Health Security Agency statement with the guidance is
here.
Questions
for the prime minister’s spokesmen: The health crisis and strike impasse are just
two of the topics Transport Secretary Mark Harper, who is currently touring the
TV studios, is likely to be grilled on this morning as the government finally
serves up a minister for a media round. There will also be plenty for Lobby
hacks to ask the prime minister’s spokesman at the first Downing Street press
briefing of the year at 11.30 a.m. For those who have been on a news blackout
and binging on mince pies and old films for the past fortnight, Playbook has a
rundown of some of the big issues which will be troubling the PM today as
Britain properly gets back to work.
Questions
from honorable members? Nope. Parliament isn’t back until Monday. But it
wouldn’t be recess without the Lib Dems demanding an early recall.
Health
check: The health service turmoil continues to get front-page treatment in many
of today’s papers. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his top team are under
increasing pressure to act, with Labour’s Wes Streeting out on Monday accusing
ministers of failing to “show their face” and to say exactly what they are
doing to get a grip. Health Secretary Steve Barclay was being updated on the
winter pressures by officials throughout the Christmas and New Year period,
health officials insist. But Matthew Taylor, the chief executive of NHS
Confederation, doesn’t reckon things are going to get better anytime soon. The
next three months are set to be “defined by further critical incidents needing
to be declared,” he warned. The pressure on staff is “unbearable,” he added.
Too late?
The Speccie’s Isabel Hardman, who has a book on the NHS coming out shortly, has
a typically thoughtful analysis of the political problems for Sunak. She says
it is essentially too late for the Tories to really make a difference on the
NHS in time for the next election. “They can set off on reforms that will, in
the long run, make it easier for patients to move through the system from
emergency to long term social care … but few of these measures are going to
have a discernible impact in a short period of time — the sort of period that
the Tories have before the next election,” she writes.
Call in the
army: In the short term, the Mail devotes a decent chunk of space in the paper
today to a hard-hitting piece from Rob Galloway, an A&E doctor of 22 year
who has drawn up a six-point plan for what the government could be doing now,
including discharging medically fit people into private hospitals and hotels,
and even COVID Nightingale hospitals staffed by the army. He also wants to see
ministers heed calls for a national incident to be declared (although health
officials say that is a question for NHS England). All are politically
unpalatable options, but so are headlines chronicling four-day waits for a
hospital bed, patients being treated in corridors, and 30 hour waits in
ambulances outside hospitals.
Striking
problem: And ministers still face the prospect of more nurse and paramedic
walkouts this month, which will likely make the care backlog even worse. Tory
backbenchers are waiting to see if those heavily briefed new anti-strike laws
will be unveiled, and start making their way through parliament, anytime soon.
There have been various reports over the Christmas period that parliament and
the courts could thwart efforts to bring in the new rules, and that any draft
laws published in the next few weeks will be less ambitious in scope than Sunak
might have liked.
Possible
breakthrough? Which might be why the Sun has a very interesting briefing that
ministers are considering offering increased holiday allowances, pension
benefits and bonuses to try to break the strike deadlock — a sign perhaps that
ministers are going a bit cold on the idea of toughing it out for another few
months. Fast-track pay negotiations for this year could be brought forward by a
couple of months, the paper is also told. RMT boss Mick Lynch has a media round
today too, and will no doubt be asked if a potential new offer along these
lines could mean we can all start to get into the office a bit more easily
again.
The stick:
But the government also appears to be conducting a twin approach, toughening
the rhetoric with a warning people will stop using the railways if the strikes
continue. A government source tells the Times: “This is an act of self-harm — a
generation of passengers will just write off the railways. We’re talking about
permanent scarring. The longer the strikes continue, the greater the risk.”
Voluntary
testing: There are also more questions today about what the government’s
COVID-19 screening program for passengers arriving from China is actually
trying to achieve, after the Indy’s Simon Calder reported last night that
passengers will not actually face compulsory tests on arrival. The testing at
Heathrow airport will be voluntary, and those who are positive won’t have to
quarantine or self-isolate, he hears. The Telegraph meanwhile says travelers
flying from Hong Kong will be excluded from the requirement, even though it has
seen a similar surge in case numbers.
All about
the kids: Early shots have also been fired in what could turn out to be another
big battle between Sunak and some of his backbenchers — this time over
childcare policy. Former Cabinet Minister Simon Clarke and Stroud MP Siobhan
Baillie have both suggested they are unimpressed with reports in the Telegraph
this week that Sunak has shelved Truss’ “big bang” childcare reforms. Former
Cabinet Minister Andrea Leadsom told Politics Home that childcare would be a
“major battleground issue” for the next election. Concerned backbenchers will
want to know soon whether this is a rethink, or if much-needed childcare reform
is actually being kicked into the long grass … again.
Extinguishing
Brexit: Another festive revelation that appears to be going down badly with
Tory Brexiteers (and probably quite well with Whitehall officials) is the
admission from “a senior government source” to the Times that it is “inevitable”
that the government will have to push back the deadline for the removal of
about 4,000 pieces of EU-derived laws from the British statute books by
December. It is something officials had been sounding the alarm over, pointing
out it was going to be very labor-intensive and time-consuming. The legislation
is expected to pop up in the Lords next month, and is likely to be blocked by
peers, the paper is told. Jacob Rees-Mogg says there is “no reason to give in
to the unelected remainers in the House of Lords who have consistently wanted
to thwart Brexit.” ERG assemble!
As for
those trade deals: Britain’s post-Brexit trade policy is no longer just about
headline-grabbing, Instagram-worthy free-trade deals, but ensuring businesses
are actually using the deals Britain has already struck, POLITICO’s Seb Whale
writes in this excellent piece looking at International Trade Secretary Kemi
Badenoch’s early approach to her job. The shift has already earned plaudits
from some industry figures — but it’s also being seen as a sign Britain has
banked many of the quick wins up for grabs after leaving the EU, Seb writes.
The ghost
of Boris: Paul Goodman’s Times column this morning looking at the prospect of
Boris Johnson making a comeback in 2023 is the best read around on the
potential for the ex-PM’s return (if you can bear it). “It isn’t hard to see
how he could step up the pressure during the coming months — for example, if he
chose, over any accommodating deal that Sunak strikes over the Northern Ireland
Protocol. That Johnson agreed the latter himself would not necessarily prove an
obstacle,” Goodman dryly observes.
Action on
Iran: Sunak hinted there would be more focus on tackling hostile activity from
Iran when he appeared before MPs on parliament’s liaison committee before
Christmas, and now the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith says the Iran Revolutionary
Guard is set to be officially declared a terrorist group “within weeks.” It
would be a significant and symbolic move putting the organization on a similar
legal footing to Al-Qaeda and ISIS, the Islamist jihadi group.
Cabinet
unity latest: There are also reports of Cabinet tensions over proposed changes
to treason laws. Deputy PM Dominic Raab wants any change, which would bring in
new offenses to prosecute jihadists, hackers and “malign” actors who swear
allegiance to a hostile foreign power, to be considered by the Law Commission
before they are brought to parliament, the Times reports. The paper says Suella
Braverman, the home secretary, and Tom Tugendhat, the security minister, had
already drawn up a plan to introduce the new offenses.
Gloomy
outlook: There are the very downbeat predictions for the U.K. economy for Sunak
to contend with too. The FT’s annual poll of economists predicts the U.K. will
have one of the worst recessions and weakest recoveries in the G7. Look away
now those who have had enough of experts, the comments from some of the 101
economists who took part make depressing reading. “The U.K. is in a structural
hole, not a cyclical downturn,” according to Diane Coyle, professor at
Cambridge university.
And there’s
the never-ending sleaze: After Sunak acknowledged that accusations — initially
reported by POLITICO’s Esther Webber and Cristina Gallardo — of drunken and
sexual misbehavior by MPs on foreign trips are “very concerning,” will he
actually do anything about APPGs as the Lobby keeps digging?
The Channel
crossings: More than 45,000 people crossed the Channel in small boats in 2022,
an increase of almost 20,000 on the figure from 2021. Expect pressure to grow
on Sunak and the government if the numbers keep notably increasing in 2023.
And what
about our energy bills? Life looks set to get even more expensive from April,
when the average household energy bill will rise from £2,500 to around £3,000
under the government’s Energy Price Guarantee. If global energy prices don’t
dip, Sunak may come under pressure to offer more help to the most vulnerable.
There’s been no word yet on support for small businesses with their bills from
April yet, either.
And where
is Rishi anyway? Will we see a bit more of the PM in 2023? Will he hold a press
conference and take questions on the array of big issues facing the nation, or
even find space in his grid for a keynote speech setting out his vision? Playbook
will be watching this space carefully.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário