Would
Brexit trigger a domino effect in Europe?
With
Euroscepticism rising, a leave vote could prompt some member states
to renegotiate their relationship with Brussels
Jon Henley European
affairs correspondent
Friday 10 June 2016
13.27 BST
As the German
finance minister has underlined, a British exit from the EU could
trigger a knock-on effect in several of the bloc’s Eurosceptic
member states.
Asked by the German
news magazine Der Spiegel whether other countries might leave the EU
after a Brexit vote, Wolfgang Schäuble said: “You can’t rule it
out … How would the Netherlands, which has traditionally been very
closely allied with Britain, react, for example?”
There is little
doubt that with Euroscepticism on the rise, Brexit would strengthen
populist, anti-Brussels parties across the EU, increasing the
potential for fragmentation and leading to what some – including
the former chief of Britain’s defence staff Lord Bramall – see as
a real risk of the structure unravelling.
A study published
this week by the Washington-based Pew Research Center showed public
support for the EU had fallen sharply across its largest member
states over the past year.
The survey of 10
large EU states showed strong support for the UK to stay in the EU,
with an average of 70% of respondents in the 10 countries surveyed
viewing Brexit as a bad thing. But the percentage of Europeans who
viewed the EU favourably had plunged, Pew said, reflecting widespread
unhappiness with Brussels’ handling of Europe’s refugee crisis
and continuing economic woes.
Only 38% of
respondents in France said they had a favourable view of the EU, down
17 points from last year. Support for the EU in Spain fell by 16
points to 47%, in Germany by eight points to 50%, and in Britain by
seven points to 44%. The EU won most backing in Poland and Hungary,
at 72% and 61%.
A Brexit vote would
be likely to lead to more forceful and frequent calls for referendums
on the EU in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands - and depending on
next year’s presidential elections, in France – that could prove
increasingly difficult for weaker governments to ignore.
Analysts stress
there is little yet to suggest that if referendums were eventually to
be held in some or all of these countries, the question posed to
voters would necessarily be on whether or not to leave the union
altogether.
Much more likely
would be a demand to renegotiate terms and repatriate powers, which
could make it harder for the EU to function and might perhaps lead,
in the longer term, to a union of more “variable geometry”, with
a deeply integrated inner core and an association of looser,
satellite members.
Geert Wilders of the
Dutch anti-Muslim and anti-European Freedom party – whose best-ever
polling results in January suggested it could win as many as 42 of
parliament’s 150 seats in elections next year – has said Brexit
would make it easier for other countries to make the same decision.
In Scandinavia, the
Sweden Democrats party, which holds the balance of power in
Stockholm, are formally in favour of remaining in the EU, but have
said that today’s bloc “is not the one that Swedes voted for”
and that it would do all it could to limit the EU’s influence.
Kristian Thulesen
Dahl, the leader of the Danish People’s party, which props up a
minority Liberal government in Copenhagen, has said he hopes Britain
stays in Europe, but only because he sees that as the best chance for
Denmark to renegotiate its own relationship with the EU.
In France, the Front
National of Marine Le Pen, who is poised to reach the second round of
the 2017 presidential poll, has long said it would seek to
renegotiate France’s EU membership if it took power, and hold an EU
referendum.
Le Pen has called
the UK referendum a key moment in European history and suggested
every state should be able to decide whether to stay or not: “I
hope the French also have a similar exercise. There has to be another
model of cooperation between peoples,” she has said.
Even in Germany,
Alternative für Deutschland – the country’s third biggest
political force – has said Brexit would provide an opportunity to
push for EU reform. Austria’s Freedom party, which came within a
whisker of winning last month’s presidential election, also wants
to renegotiate the country’s relationship with Brussels.
The virulent anti-EU
talk of some eastern European governments, most notably Hungary and
Poland, however, is mainly for domestic consumption. Standing up to
Brussels may bolster their populist appeal, but EU membership brings
too many advantages for them to seriously pursue an exit.
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