Cop28 live: global heating could hit 3C, warn
politicians, as climate summit continues
As the conference goes into the last few days,
today’s theme will be nature and forests
Bibi van der Zee
@bibivanderzee
Sat 9 Dec 2023 09.23 GMT
22m ago
09.05 GMT
UK's net zero secretary absent from the summit
Fiona Harvey
Steve
Barclay, the UK secretary of state for the environment, defended the absence of
his colleague Claire Coutinho, the UK’s energy security and net zero secretary,
from the Cop28 global climate summit.
Coutinho is
the most senior UK politician on the climate crisis, in charge of the
government’s legally binding commitment to reach net zero greenhouse gas
emissions by 2050, and second only to prime minister Rishi Sunak. But she has
attended Cop28 only briefly, in the opening stages, and as the negotiations
reach their crunch hours she is not planning to return to Dubai.
Barclay
pointed to the fact that Rishi Sunak, prime minister, had attended on the first
day of the talks, and said the UK was represented at a senior level, by the
climate minister Graham Stuart. He is one of the minister of state in the
department, not a cabinet-level post.
This
doesn’t wash with other countries. They know that Stuart is a minor minister,
and that head of department Coutinho has stayed at home. Other countries have
sent their top level ministers to take charge of the negotiations, knowing that
at this crucial point – when the phase-out of fossil fuels is finally on the
agenda, when the world is fighting for its future – nothing less will suffice.
While the
UK’s negotiating team is widely admired for its skill and dedication, the
absence of the lead cabinet minister for the UK has been noticed. Many
countries have told the Guardian they are disappointed that a country that was
until recently a strong climate champion that did much good work behind the
scenes on bringing countries together is now absent at a high level.
Barclay
said: “There’s been ministers from the start. So I think there’s a very strong
representation of UK ministers that have been at the top. The prime minister
has been here, a lot of very senior ministers have been here. And you know,
this is a continuing commitment, it builds on the work that we did at Cop26. So
a huge amount of work has been done.”
Sunak was
widely slammed for attending the conference for barely twelve hours, less time
than he spent on the private jet that took him to and from Dubai.
Barclay
added that the UK was pushing for a phase out of fossil fuels, the key issue at
these talks. “We’re still committed to that phase out,” he said. But he added
the caveat that the PM also feels that it is vital to find a “trajectory that
brings the public with us”.
Barclay
defended his government’s record on the environment domestically and said he
was meeting with water companies to discuss the nutrient regulations, meant to
prevent new housebuilding adding to the sewage pressure on rivers. He praised
the UK’s commitment to tree planting, and promised that consumers would be able
to have confidence that the products they buy are not contributing to
deforestation abroad, owing to new regulations on supermarkets.
The UK was
well-regarded internationally for its environmental commitments, said Barclay.
“You look at the funding that the UK has put in international climate finance,
the blue planet fund, the £500m, on a range of issues we are committed and the
fact that we have put into law our targets, very clear commitments. And I think
that shows the commitment, that it’s not just something that the UK is saying,
we have put into legislation as law clear targets [on reaching net zero]. “
Updated at 09.09 GMT
50m ago
08.37 GMT
Nina Lakhani
Journalists
have been asking questions about my colleague Damian Carrington’s Opec scoop
last night. So far, the answers have not really addressed the question of what
impact the letter calling for Opec members to push back on fossil fuel
phase-out/phase-back language in the global stocktake (GST) will have.
The Cop28
director general, Majid Al Suwaldi, said: “Our president has been very clear
from day one that he wants to achieve an outcome that puts us clearly on track
for 1.5C. Last night we met with the ministerial pairings – and with all the
ministers who are here today at Cop28 – and made it clear that he wants to see
an outcome that is as ambitious as possible, and we believe that we’re going to
deliver.”
Jiwoh
Emmanuel Abdukai, Zambian minister and spokesperson for the African group of
negotiators, said he would be in a better place to comment after today’s round
of meeting on the GST. Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya,
Nigeria, and the Republic of the Congo are Opec members.
But the top
prize for evasion so far today goes to the US deputy climate envoy, Rick Duke.
I asked him how developing countries can trust the US to be a good faith actor
in the negotiations - given that it is the biggest producer of oil and gas this
year, has failed to deliver $1bn of the promised $3bn on climate adaptation,
and has only pledged $17.5m to the loss and damage fund.
Duke said
that US actions on energy transition and deforestation are “consistent with our
nationally determined contribution to cut our emissions 50% to 52 % by 2030 …
The science commands that we achieve global net zero emissions by mid-century
in order to limit warming to 1.5C and that does mean that the world will need
to largely phase out fossil fuels in our energy systems by 2050, including with
targeted use of carbon capture and storage, but we should also be globally
phasing down fossil fuels in this critical decade.” He also talked about coal
and China and the importance of leadership in achieving climate action.
Updated at 09.07 GMT
2h ago
07.26 GMT
Nina Lakhani
There is
mounting anger and frustration at the UNFCCC for restricting freedom of
expression and assembly of civil society and frontline communities at Cop28 –
in violation of the treaty framework and the Paris agreement that all parties
signed – while almost 2,500 fossil fuel lobbyists walk the corridors.
A major
climate action march is planned for this afternoon as part of the global day on
climate action, but it is facing a slew of restrictions on what can be said and
how many can attend. For example, no mention of Israel is allowed, otherwise
Cop badges may be revoked.
This is
happening on the eve of the 75th anniversary of the declaration of human
rights.
Updated at 09.11 GMT
2h ago
07.02 GMT
Is Opec starting to panic?
Yesterday it was reported by my colleague Damian
Carrington that Opec, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries,
had sent letters to its member countries warning, with “utmost urgency” that
“pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible
consequences” at Cop28. The leaked letters were seen by the Guardian.
The letters noted that a “fossil fuels phase out”
remains on the negotiating table at the UN climate summit and urges the oil
states to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy, ie
fossil fuels, rather than emissions”.
The news
agencies Bloomberg and Reuters also reported the news on Friday, saying several
independent sources had confirmed the documents were genuine, and that Opec had
declined to comment. The Guardian has not confirmed the authenticity of the
documents and Opec did not respond to the Guardian’s request for comment.
Today there
has been some reaction to the story, with Cansın Leylim, 350.org associate
director of global campaigns, saying:
Opec’s
desperate resistance to a fossil fuel phase-out reveals their fear of a
changing tide, evident in Cop28 discussions. As 106 nations rally for a rapid
fossil fuel decline, the draft text of the global stocktake offers hope, with
several options for a phase-out of fossil fuels. Opec needs to get with the
programme or move out of the way of our just transition to a 100% renewable
energy-powered future. Cop28 was supposed to be the most inclusive of climate
talks, yet fossil fuel lobbyists have found shelter, and are trying to block
progress. The spotlight is now on the Cop28’s presidency and if they will
broker a deal for a just transition or instead align themselves with the oil
industry.
But, as
Catherine Abreu, the founder and executive director of Destination Zero,
observed, maybe the letters are a good sign.
“You know
#COP28 is on the precipice of delivering an historic outcome that will change
the game in the global transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable
energy and energy efficiency when Opec starts to panic.”
Updated at 09.15 GMT
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3h ago
06.45 GMT
Nina Lakhani
The climate
crisis could stifle economic growth in the Gulf region by almost 70% by 2100,
if fossil fuels are not phased out and greenhouse gas emissions continue to
heat the planet at the current rate, a study by Christian Aid suggests.
The report,
Mercury rising: the economic impact of climate change on the Arabian Peninsula,
found that Gulf countries can expect to suffer an average GDP hit of -69% by
the end of the century, if global temperature rise reaches 3C above
pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. If the world rallies to phase
out fossil fuels and curtails planet heating to 1.5C as set out in the Paris
agreement, these countries face an average GDP growth reduction of -8.2% by
2050 and -36% by 2100.
The Cop28
host, UAE, as well as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait face a worst case scenario of GDP
growth reduction of -72% by 2100. At 1.5 C, the economic hit for these three
oil producers would be reduced to less than 40% compared with growth without a
climate crisis.
The region
is at risk of becoming “uninhabitable”, according to Shady Khalil, a Greenpeace
campaigner in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region. ‘The region is
acutely threatened by climate change, and faces a future where rising
temperatures could render vast areas uninhabitable, exacerbating the
vulnerabilities of countless communities and leading to displacement, wars, and
premature deaths.”
Gulf
country economies are still expected to be higher than they are today, but the
pace of growth will depend on how much the planet warms.
The
report’s author, Marina Andrijevic, an economist at the International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis, in Vienna, said: “The analysis shows the grave
economic harm that will be posed to life in the Arabian Peninsula if
temperatures continue to climb in an already baking hot region. Agreeing to
phase out all fossil fuels is the single most significant thing that Cop28
could achieve in reducing emissions and turning the tide on climate change.”
The report
also shows that Gulf countries have some of the highest per capita emissions on
the planet - even without factoring in the fossil fuels extracted and exported
in these countries. An average person in UAE is responsible for more CO2
emissions than 645 people from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Updated at 09.21 GMT
3h ago
06.24 GMT
Good
morning! This is Bibi van der Zee, on the ninth day (if we don’t count
Thursday’s rest day) of the 28th Conference of the Parties climate change
summit, or Cop28.
The
Guardian will be liveblogging the negotiations throughout, as always, and we
look forward to your contributions: please email me on
bibi.vanderzee@theguardian.com with thoughts and suggestions. Ajit Niranjan
(ajit.niranjan@theguardian.com) will be taking over later on.
Yesterday:
The former
French prime minister and Cop21 president, Laurent Fabius, said the world was
off track to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, as
agreed in the Paris agreement, and that he thinks heating will hit between 2.8C
and 3C if we don’t act now.
Nina
Lakhani revealed Cop28 organisers granted attendance to at least 475 lobbyists
working on carbon capture and storage, unproven technologies that climate
scientists say will not curtail global heating.
Norway’s
minister of foreign affairs, Espen Barth Eide, was confronted by activists
protesting against the new Rosebank oilfield in the North Sea. The oil and gas
licence has been signed off by the UK government – which has been highly
controversial – but the facility will be operated by Norway’s Equinor. They
asked him if he would stop Rosebank because of the vast emissions it would
cause. He said it was not up to him, adding: “These decisions are up to the UK
government.”
Sultan Al
Jaber, the Cop28 president, seemed chipper about the progress made at the
summit. He told journalists: “We can all agree Cop28 has been different, and I
am sure we will agree that Cop28 has already made history.”
Stick with
us for all the updates.
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