Climate scientists hail 2023 as ‘beginning of the
end’ for fossil fuel era
Cautious optimism among experts that emissions from
energy use may have peaked as net zero mission intensifies
Jillian
Ambrose Energy correspondent
Sat 30 Dec
2023 06.00 GMT
Global
efforts to slow a runaway climate catastrophe may have reached a critical
milestone in the last year with the peak of global carbon emissions from energy
use, according to experts.
A growing
number of climate analysts believe that 2023 may be recorded as the year in
which annual emissions reached a pinnacle before the global fossil fuel economy
begins a terminal decline.
The
milestone is considered a crucial tipping point in the race to drive emissions
to net zero. But for many climate experts it’s an inflexion point that was due
years ago and which, although encouraging, falls far short of the rapid
reduction the world needs.
The world’s
leading climate scientists have consistently warned that the buildup of carbon
dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere means it is critical to drive down emissions
before 2030 if leaders hope to keep global heating to a maximum of 1.5C above
pre-industrialised levels. The rate at which emissions would need to be reduced
will require, most experts agree, global transformation on a scale not yet in
the pipeline.
“We can
take a small pause to celebrate this tipping point,” said Dave Jones, a
director at the climate thinktank Ember. “But in a way it’s worrying that we
are still talking about when emissions might peak. The reality of the situation
is that we need deep and fast reductions in emissions if we hope to stay within
the vanishingly small budget for carbon which remains.”
The
International Energy Agency (IEA) raised hopes earlier this year of an end to
the fossil fuel era when it predicted for the first time that the consumption
of oil, gas and coal would peak before 2030 and begin to fall as climate
policies took effect.
“It’s not a
question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better
for all of us,” said Fatih Birol, the head of the IEA.
To
understand how the world may have already reached an end to rising global
emissions, just two years after one of the steepest emissions hikes in history,
it helps to look at the global electricity sector.
“The world
is teetering at the peak of power sector emissions,” said Malgorzata
Wiatros-Motyka, the lead author of a report by Ember. Earlier this year the
report found that emissions from generating electricity had plateaued over the
first half of 2023 and could be poised to fall from next year.
The report
studied power generation across 78 countries representing 92% of global
electricity demand. It found a 16% rise in the amount of solar power generated
and a 10% jump in global wind power output.
In the
IEA’s flagship report, widely considered to be one of the most influential in
the climate and energy debate, it found that the steady rise of wind and solar
power was on track to outpace the world’s growing demand for energy – meaning
renewables will start to displace fossil fuels on a global scale.
At the same
time the rollout of electric vehicles globally is expected to start eroding the
demand for road fuels, which makes up about 50% of the oil demand in developed
countries.
These
trends have accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a
surge in the commodity price for gas and oil in 2022 and incentivised a renewed
focus on securing domestic sources of clean energy instead.
In one
scenario put forward by the IEA, based on the stated policies of global
governments, it found that emissions may peak as soon as this year before
beginning a slow decline. The IEA is careful to say that none of its scenarios
should be considered a forecast. The “stated policies” scenario is one of the
more reliable barometers of what the future may hold because it is based on “a
detailed review of the current policy landscape”, or in other words, what
governments are doing rather than what they are say they will do.
The
findings are backed up by a number of separate studies, all from well-regarded
energy authorities, which paint a picture of a world at the beginning of the
end of the fossil fuel era.
An analysis
of China’s carbon emissions – the highest in the world and more than the
emissions of the US, India and Russia combined – found that they may reach a
peak this year before falling into a structural decline by 2024. The study by
the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, undertaken for Carbon Brief,
found that China’s rollout of wind and solar power had been faster than
expected this year and could eclipse the country’s growing energy appetite.
A peak in
China’s emissions this year was also found by Climate Analytics, a climate
policy institute, which predicted that an emissions peak for the world’s most
energy-hungry nation could drive the world to an emissions “tipping point” in
2023.
Dr Neil
Grant, an author of the report, said: “For years, energy demand growth has
outstripped renewables deployment, despite record additions of wind and solar.
We’re now approaching the tipping point, where renewables overtake demand
growth and start displacing coal, oil and gas. This would mark the beginning of
the end for the fossil economy.”
There is a
note of caution in the prediction though. Claire Fyson, another author of the
Climate Analytics report, warned that the existing trends seeing rising
renewables and electric motoring would need to continue to allow emissions to
begin falling.
“This won’t
just happen by itself,” Fyson said. “Technologies often follow an ‘S’ curve
where they really take off but over time their progress can slow. You need
government policy to continue to incentivise renewables and [disincentivise]
fossil fuels.”
Not
everyone agrees that fossil fuels have reached the beginning of the end. Some
of the biggest oil producers in the world have publicly stated that oil demand
– and emissions – show no sign of falling.
The US
Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) said earlier this year that
energy-related carbon emissions would continue to rise, in line with growing
global demand for oil, until 2050. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (Opec) has also predicted that global oil demand will continue to
grow out to 2045, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years.
“I think
you have to think about the motives behind these projects,” said Fyson. “It’s
in Opec’s best interest to forecast a rise in oil demand.”
Strong oil
demand forecasts can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. They might encourage
governments to back further oil and gas exploration to avoid a shortfall, which
in turn can lead to lower oil commodity prices if there is more oil and gas
than needed. This creates a disincentive to switch from a fossil fuel vehicle
or heating system to an electric alternative if it’s cheaper to use gas or oil.
Opec has
consistently underestimated the rollout of electric vehicles in its official
forecasts, which are used by governments to inform their policies, according to
experts. Its forecasts for the number of electric vehicles on the roads by 2022
were too low by an average of almost 60% over the period 2015-2021, according
to a recent report by Zero Carbon Analytics. In 2021, the cartel’s forecasts
for the global electric vehicles fleet just one year ahead were wrong by 49%,
the report found.
Amy Kong,
the author of the report, said the forecasts were “wildly wrong year after
year” in what appears to be an “underhand attempt by oil producers to persuade
investors and governments that fossil fuels have a future”.
Even in a
world of declining fossil fuels and carbon emissions there is a clear risk of
failing to move fast enough to reduce emissions in time to prevent global
heating of 1.5C above pre-industrialised levels, according to climate experts.
The United
Nations Environment Programme estimates that for the world to have a shot at
keeping global heating below the 1.5C target set out in the Paris agreement
emissions will need to fall by about 9% every year. For context, emissions fell
5.4% when the Covid-19 pandemic brought global economies to a standstill in
2020 before starting to rise again.
There will
need to be great strides in addressing the world’s record high carbon
emissions, but from next year there’s a strong chance that at least they will
be moving in the right direction.
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