Third
of EU referendum voters won’t make up their minds until week before
poll
London
School of Economics research suggests knife-edge referendum vote may
be decided at the last minute
Toby Helm /12-6-2016
/
Up to 30% of people
will change the way they vote or make up their minds in the week
before the 23 June Brexit referendum, with half of these only
deciding finally on polling day, according to research by academics
at the London School of Economics.
The findings, in a
report sponsored by Opinium and Lansons strategic consultancy,
suggest that the result could swing either way – depending on
whether it is the Remain or Leave camp that convinces the most
undecided voters in the final 12 days of the campaign.
The research, headed
by Michael Bruter, professor of political science at the LSE, comes
as the latest Opinium/Observer poll shows the outcome remains on a
knife-edge. The poll puts Remain on 44%, Leave on 42% and those who
say they don’t know how they will vote on 13%.
The LSE work is
based on studies of voter behaviour in recent elections and
referendums in 25 countries including the UK. Academics used panel
studies and other interview and investigative methods to probe the
psychological processes driving voters’ decisions.
The report, The
Impact of Brexit on Consumer Behaviour, states that many voters are
“very worried” about making the wrong decision and are therefore
prone to changing their minds or leaving their choice until close to
the actual moment they cast their vote. “We consistently find that
20-30% of voters either change their mind within a week of casting
their ballot, about half of them on election day itself,” the
report says.
Bruter said that
experience showed that the proportions of late deciders and switches
tended to be higher in referendums than in general elections. The way
people vote is also more difficult to predict than in general
elections because decisions are less tied to traditional party
loyalties.
Explaining why
people decide late or switch their vote close to or on polling day,
he said: “This is the period when the campaign reaches its climax
and most people not really interested in politics but still voting
will only pay close attention to the vote at this very late time.
“In that last
week, emotions run at their highest and when the vote starts feeling
concrete and voters sense the atmosphere of the election. Before
that, people offer more ‘selfish’ or unreflected opinions on what
outcome they think is best, but it is only in the final week that the
vote feels less abstract and more ‘real’ to them.
“It is the period
when people suddenly declare being aware of a sense of responsibility
on their shoulders as the solemnity of the vote makes them inhabit
their ‘role’ as citizens. As a result, they become significantly
more sociotropic – interested in what is best for the country, and
not just for them – and feel that they have a collective
responsibility to use their vote for the greater good.” He added:
“For many people those factors are specifically heightened on the
day of the vote when they physically enter the space of a polling
station. Many voters are highly sensitive to the special atmosphere
of the vote (especially, depending on context, when queues or the
behaviour of other fellow citizens around them makes them feel that
they are part of an important democratic moment), which is why so
many change or make up their minds only on election day itself.”
The report says that
arguments put forward by the Leave camp are met by voters with more
scepticism than those advanced by those in Remain, even among those
who say they back Brexit.
The Opinium/Observer
poll was conducted according to the company’s new methodology,
using a system that corrects what the pollsters say is a bias towards
“socially conservative” voters in online polls. It shows 46% of
Tory voters backing staying in the EU against 43% who want to leave
and 63% of Labour voters staying in against 28% who want to leave.
The figures for Ukip are 93% and 5%. When undecided voters were
“nudged” to say which side they were leaning towards 38% said
they were leaning to Remain and 26% to Leave.
Opinium Research
carried out an online survey of 2,009 UK adults aged 18 and over from
7 to 10 June 2016. Results have been weighted to nationally
representative criteria.
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