EU referendum: leave
takes six-point lead in Guardian/ICM polls
Phone and online
polls show support for Brexit growing to 53%, with proportion backing
remain campaign falling to 47%
Support for leaving
the EU is strengthening, with phone and online surveys reporting a
six-point lead, according to a pair of Guardian/ICM polls.
Tom Clark
Monday 13 June 2016
17.19 BST
Support for leaving
the EU is strengthening, with phone and online surveys reporting a
six-point lead, according to a pair of Guardian/ICM polls.
Leave now enjoys a
53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to
research conducted over the weekend, compared with a 52%-48% split
reported by ICM a fortnight ago.
The figures will
make grim reading for David Cameron, George Osborne and the Labour
party. They follow a fortnight in which immigration became the
dominant issue in the referendum campaign, with the publication of
official figures showing that net migration had risen to a
near-record 333,000 in 2015.
Prof John Curtice of
Strathclyde University, who analyses available referendum polling
data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that after the ICM
data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for
leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a
strong position.
“These results are
consistent with the generality of numbers over the last couple of
weeks, in which there has been some weakening in the remain
position,” he said. “It was already plain that this race was far
closer than the prime minister intended and he must now be feeling
discomfort at the thought that the outcome really could be in doubt.”
Throughout the long
campaign, internet surveys have pointed to a close race. But the
remain camp had been able to take heart from more traditional
telephone polls, which have tended to show them enjoying a
double-digit lead.
That appears to have
changed recently. Two weeks ago, ICM reported for the first time that
leave had taken the lead in one of its phone polls.
Under the surface,
the proportion of voters who remain undecided is dwindling, in
possible evidence of the hardening of attitudes towards EU
membership.
In ICM’s telephone
fieldwork in particular, 13% of respondents were indicating
uncertainty about how they would vote a fortnight ago, but that
figure has now fallen to 6%. Online, 7% say they don’t know, down
from 9% two weeks ago.
There are also signs
that Conservative infighting, which has characterised the referendum
campaign, is now hurting the party in the Westminster stakes. The
Tories are down two points on the month in the long-running
Guardian/ICM telephone poll series, at 34%, only one point ahead of
Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party, which gains one on the month to reach
33%.
However, the
referendum is not producing a sustained Ukip surge: Nigel Farage’s
party sinks by one point from the previous poll, to 14%. The Liberal
Democrats climb two to 9% and the Greens also pick up two, reaching
5%. The Scottish National party and Plaid Cymru remain on 4% and 1%
respectively. Other minor parties are unchanged at 1%.
In its experimental
online voting intention series, ICM puts the Conservatives ahead on
34%, Labour on 30%, Ukip on 19%, the Lib Dems on 8%, with the SNP and
the Greens both on 4%, and assorted others with 1%.
The mood at
Westminster has recently turned, especially bleak among Labour MPs
concerned that the party’s arguments for remaining in Europe are
not connecting with its voters. The latest telephone poll suggests
that remain is still the preferred choice of Labour voters, by 58% to
38%.
However, this
balance is not sufficiently emphatic to overpower the combination of
a slight 49%-47% margin for leave among the Tories, and a crushing
97% to 2% preference for leave among Ukip supporters.
Breaking down the
population between generations confirms that Eurosceptism sets in
with age: among the young, aged 18 to 34, the balance is 56% to 39%
for remain, whereas pensioners of 65 and over lean the other way, by
55% to 39%.
Voters in
professional “AB” grade occupations are strongly in favour of
staying in Europe (57%-38%), whereas skilled manual workers (C2s) are
plumping for leave by an emphatic 67% to 29% margin.
ICM Unlimited
interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults by telephone between 10
and 13 June 2016. ICM separately interviewed 2,001 adults aged 18 and
over online between 10 and 13 June 2016. In both cases, interviews
were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted
to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling
Council and abides by its rules
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