CARTOON : Ben Jennings on Boris Johnson and
boosterism
The battle to succeed Boris Johnson
Britain’s chancellor and foreign secretary are already
scoping out supporters in case their boss stumbles.
BY ESTHER
WEBBER AND EMILIO CASALICCHIO
December
29, 2021 4:02 am
LONDON —
Whisper it, but the race to succeed Boris Johnson is on.
Two of the
prime minister’s top lieutenants — Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss — are on
maneuvers, as Westminster insiders like to say, and Johnson’s recent woes have
only intensified the speculation.
This
month’s two-year anniversary of the U.K. leader’s resounding election victory
came at a low point. Johnson was beset by scandal, weakened by insurrection in
the ranks of his Conservative party, and gifted a bloody nose in a by-election
which saw his party lose a seat it has held for almost 200 years.
Some in the
famously regicidal Conservative Party detect the beginning of the end, and
predict an attempt to remove him by next summer. Others caution that reports of
his demise are greatly exaggerated.
Whether his
departure really is around the corner or another election cycle away, Truss and
Sunak — widely regarded as likely successors — are taking no chances.
Sunak has
had a meteoric rise from hedge fund whizz-kid to keeper of the nation’s
finances at a time of major economic shock. Truss is the
Remain-voter-turned-Brexit-champion, now responsible for remaking the U.K.’s
foreign policy outside the EU.
In a sure
sign that something’s up, their allies say they both have more pressing tasks
in hand than their own future job prospects. But, in truth, the respective
leadership campaigns are already well under way — even if some political
observers are struggling to work out what the pair would actually do with the
top job.
Vying for
support
Any
would-be successor to the British prime minister needs to gather the support of
their party. Conservative MPs can trigger a vote of no-confidence in their
leader if at least 15 percent of them want one and then a simple majority could
topple Johnson in a subsequent vote. From there, wannabe leaders put their
names forward and these are whittled down via a series of MP votes until there
are two candidates left. The wider party membership then chooses between the
finalists.
The support
of their fellow MPs is therefore critical for anyone eying the top job. As
fiercely as their respective camps may deny it, both Sunak and Truss have
already been trying to sign up recruits.
A serving
minister confirmed that “the Liz dinners are happening,” but said they’ve also
“been happening for years, so if she gets caught she can argue it’s nothing
special.”
Henry Hill,
assistant editor at grassroots website ConservativeHome, said Sunak’s campaign
“is starting to tap people on the shoulder and take soundings” both among MPs
and potential external aides, and “the organization is definitely on.”
One
intriguing element of the contest is that Sunak and Truss are both fishing in
the same pond.
“In the
past the big dividing line has been Brexit,” Hill observed. “Now we’re out [of
the EU], the interesting thing about Liz and Rishi being the frontrunners is
that they’re pitching not to identical wings of the party but to broadly the
same base: the economically right-wing small L liberal.”
One
ex-minister, however, was damning of both their attempts to tee up support
among MPs. “Rishi is exactly the same as Boris in the sense that he has no
loyalty amongst the parliamentary party,” they said. “He’s just been rewarded
for being an effective chancellor, who was the right man at the right time.
There are no Rishi-ites. There are a small number of Truss-ites, but they tend
to be the lunatic fringe.”
The serving
minister meanwhile said: “Rishi is a solo traveler with a small group of people
around him. He is working on the leadership but he still hasn’t done outreach
to some of the 2017 and 2015 [election] lot. His network isn’t as good as it
might seem from the outside.”
Others
dispute this characterization. As chancellor, Sunak has to do more sounding
about policy than Truss, meaning he is inevitably plugged into the everyday
gripes and obsessions of the Tory rank and file.
As MP for
Richmond in Yorkshire, Sunak also has a reservoir of support among fellow
northern Tories — and that could prove useful. He served as a communities
minister alongside Jake Berry, the leader of an influential caucus of Northern
MPs. And while he may be skeptical of committing long-term funding for
Johnson’s “leveling up” project to spend more public money outside of the South
East of England, Berry has been keen to sign off on various infrastructure
projects in Teesside, not far from his constituency.
Tricky
briefs
Sunak and
Truss are pretty evenly matched when it comes to qualifications. However, both
their current roles come with challenges that could dull their shine.
Sunak, the
slick and smiley chancellor, has made his mark despite relative inexperience.
Within weeks of landing the role, he scrambled emergency financial support for
the millions of firms, workers and welfare recipients hit by the pandemic,
turning him into a household name overnight.
His
personal ratings soon outstripped Johnson’s and his reputation for competence
has earned him plaudits among backbench Conservative MPs, many of whom also
admire his tough stance on COVID restrictions, international aid and apparent
ambivalence towards Johnson’s net zero agenda.
However,
his acquiescence in the imposition of new tax rises to boost health spending
and fund England’s creaking social care system throws into question the
traditional, small-state Tory credentials he is so eager to advertise.
Sunak has
defended manifesto-busting tax hikes as a necessary measure in extraordinary
times, repeating the phrase: “Whatever it takes.” But that phrase has been a
cause for concern among some of his colleagues.
One former
government aide said: “He has to he has to be responsible for those decisions.
I don’t think he can just carry on with this ‘jam tomorrow’ approach to the
country’s finances.”
Hill at
ConservativeHome believes Sunak can weather this unease. “I think he can get
away with most of it because of COVID, where we have had to roll out absolutely
extraordinary amounts of public spending. There’s a constituency of
Conservative MPs who will view him as the safe pair of hands whether or not he
actually deserves that.”
Sunak’s
ability to make this argument will nonetheless be strained by circumstances,
with looming tax rises and inflation likely to severely squeeze incomes in the
coming months.
He has also
been conspicuous as one of the main Cabinet opponents of tighter COVID
restrictions, pushing for the reopening of hospitality last summer and against
any return to lockdown. This may be popular with much of the Tory Party, but
could hurt him as the public inquiry into the government’s handling of the
pandemic gets under way next year.
Truss has
taken a similar position over COVID but was less central to these decisions and
is therefore less exposed.
In contrast
to Sunak, Truss is one of Johnson’s most seasoned ministers. She’s served
continuously in the Cabinet since 2014, under David Cameron, Theresa May and
now Johnson — demonstrating her ability to bend with the ideological
fluctuations of the Tory party.
Her early
performances in the justice and environment departments were widely criticized,
but she has succeeded in turning the ship around since then — at least in the
eyes of Tory members.
She polls
consistently highly in ConservativeHome’s regular survey of readers, and has
now enjoyed a full year as the most highly-rated Cabinet minister. As
international trade secretary, a post she held until September, Truss was in
her element, flying around the world and talking up Britain’s freedom to
flourish outside the EU. Becoming foreign secretary allows her to continue in
that mode even more bullishly, with a particular emphasis on bolstering the
U.K.’s Indo-Pacific ties and talking tough in the direction of China and
Russia.
Truss has
lately been handed another opportunity — or a poisoned chalice. She was picked
to lead negotiations on post-Brexit trade arrangements with the EU after the
abrupt resignation of the notoriously hard-nosed David Frost.
There had
been speculation she would adopt a more conciliatory position on the tricky
issue of the Northern Ireland protocol, but there seems to be scant sign of
that so far following her first call with European Commission Vice-President
Maroš Šefčovič. A person with knowledge of Truss’s operation said it showed she
had made the calculation that only a hardline stance can preserve her
popularity.
Several MPs
suggested it suited Johnson to keep the pair in these parallel difficult
briefs. One minister who has worked closely with Truss said: “Boris doesn’t
mind them doing a bit of peacocking — it’s better to keep the two of them
level-pegging because then they fight each other.”
Another
senior Tory said handing the Brexit reins to Truss is “brilliant for Boris” as
“he is now forcing her to dip her hands in the blood” of unforgiving
negotiations over the Northern Ireland protocol.
Sunak and
Truss are by no means the only contenders should Johnson falter. Health
Secretary Sajid Javid, Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi and Trade Minister
Penny Mordaunt may all fancy their chances, and have been recently filling
their war chests with donations.
Former
Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt — who lost to Johnson in 2019 — is another
possible contender. The same former government aide quoted above said of the
Tories: “They always overcorrect for the previous leader.”
Neither
Sunak or Truss should be seen as a “slam dunk,” that aide said, with Truss “not
seen as serious” and Sunak “elite and out of touch.”
Conservative
leadership contests are always difficult to call and, for a time, the received
wisdom was that the frontrunner seldom triumphs — until Johnson did so in 2019.
But it will be tricky for either to get as far ahead of the pack as Johnson did
while they are in direct competition with each other.
Meanwhile,
doubts persist about what either senior Tory actually believes in. The first
minister quoted above described Sunak as “a classic management consultant — he
looks for a gap in the market and tries to fill it,” claiming: “Neither of them
have built a particular ideology.”
Even if
that is the case, Truss and Sunak may reflect that the same charge did not
impede the current prime minister on his journey to the top.
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