Poll
gives Brexit campaign three percentage points lead
Opinium
survey also shows extent of age and class divisions between leave and
remain camps
Daniel Boffey
Saturday 4 June 2016
22.23 BST
The leave campaign
has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in
the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters
now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the
UK in the union.
The poll suggests
the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two
weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly
campaigned on the theme of immigration.
The leave campaign
appears to have picked up three percentage points. The potential in
the leave campaign’s strategy is reflected in responses suggesting
that two in five voters (41%) cite immigration as one of their two
most important issues when deciding how to vote. Just over a third
(35%) cite Britain’s ability to make its own laws without EU
interference and 29% cite the impact of leaving on the UK economy.
Half of the 2,007
people surveyed said they believed that immigration would be under
better control if the UK did leave the EU. Twelve per cent feel that
the UK would have more control if the country retains its EU
membership, and 24% say there would be little difference.
A fresh campaign to
highlight the security dangers of EU membership, including the
possibility of Turkey’s accession to the EU, is expected to be
launched by Johnson this weekend.
However, the leave
campaign also believes that, if it can keep the headline polls close,
a relatively poor turnout among Labour voters who support remain
could deliver it victory.
Opinium also issued
a different set of figures using an alternative methodology to try to
reflect the fact that online samples are sometimes seen to
over-represent socially conservative respondents, who may be more
likely to favour Brexit.
With the adjustments
to the make-up of the sample surveyed, remain keeps its lead. Opinium
found that 43% of UK adults said they would vote to remain in the EU
in a referendum, while 41% would vote to leave the EU and 14% don’t
know how they would vote.
However, Opinium
said a move to leave had also been reflected in answers to their
so-called “nudge” question, which asks those who don’t yet know
how they will vote in what direction they are leaning. In the last
Opinium survey two weeks ago, those split 55% leaning to remain and
32% leaning towards leave
In the latest survey
the gap has narrowed dramatically, with 36% leaning towards remain
and 33% towards leave, even when the methodological updates were
implemented. When those who don’t know were forced to choose, 47%
said they lean more towards remain, while 32% lean more towards
leave.
Generally the polls
show an electorate split by social class, region and party political
affiliation. The more affluent favour staying in the EU, while older
people are typically more likely to back Brexit.
London is a
stronghold of the remain camp, while the East Midlands tends toward
leaving. Areas such as north-west England are more evenly poised.
Nearly half (48%)
say that Cameron should resign if Brexit occurs, 32% that he should
not. Remain voters are evenly split (42% either way) while leave
voters overwhelmingly say he should resign (65% to 22%).
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