10
steps to Brexit to keep David Cameron up at night
Despite
holding most of the good cards, Remain camp can lose the UK
referendum. Here’s how.
By TOM MCTAGUE
6/13/16, 5:32 AM CET
LONDON — David
Cameron was supposed to be cruising to victory. A blizzard of dire
economic warnings from across the world had effectively settled the
question. The Leave campaign had lost the economic argument and could
do nothing but raise fears about immigration.
Or so many pundits
thought.
There is a growing
sense of panic among pro-Remain MPs. Something isn’t right. Labour
has been spooked by a surge in support for Brexit in its heartlands.
Outside London, England does not feel like a country convinced by
Remain.
Pollsters privately
insist nothing much has changed. The fundamentals remain stacked in
the prime minister’s favor, they say. For Leave to win, support for
Brexit needs to be 10 points further ahead, comfortably topping 50
percent in the polls.
But Vote Leave, the
official campaign for Brexit, smell blood. They are convinced of
victory. Here are the 10 steps that would get them there:
1. Discipline breaks
down
Conventional wisdom
has been turned on its head. The Remain campaign was supposed to be
united and on message, while Brexiteers squabbled. No longer.
Seeds of division
were planted by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s failure to stick to
the script, his own MPs believe. Attacking the government’s
so-called “project fear,” the Labour leader promised to kill the
EU’s free trade deal with the U.S. and ensure Brussels became more
interventionist on social policy under his leadership.
Remain’s message
discipline further frayed live on air last Thursday, as economic
warnings were lost in a co-ordinated blizzard of calls to “take
back control” from the line-up of Leave campaigners led by former
London mayor Boris Johnson.
Cabinet minister
Amber Rudd attempted to regain the initiative by hurling insults at
Johnson, winning headlines, but undermining her ally and Scottish
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s attempt to set out the “positive
case.”
With less than two
weeks until polling day, losing control of the message is a bad omen
for Remain.
2. England energized
Vote Leave has
produced a series of electoral maps which, if made public, would send
shivers through Downing Street.
Using computer bots
to trawl past voting data, the campaign has broken down, postcode by
postcode, expected turnout and Euroskepticism in each area of the
country.
The magnetic power
of the status quo, pulling voters back from the brink, is far less
powerful than in previous referendums such as in Quebec or Scotland.
From the data, the
campaign has produced two key maps showing the battleground areas.
One shows strongly pro-EU postcodes with historically high turnouts,
the other Euroskeptic areas with strong voting records.
The two maps are
immediately striking. The pro-EU map has big blue circles in just two
areas — inner London and Scotland. The Brexit map, by contrast, is
covered in blue everywhere in England outside the capital and
Labour’s northern heartlands.
Vote Leave believe
England’s southern Brexit belt holds the key to victory. If the
South turns out and working class northerners stay home, Britain
could be heading out of the EU.
3. The Brexit
‘double differential’
Number 10
consistently stress how important turnout will be, with Cameron
publicly warning younger voters not to let their grandparents drag
them out of Europe by failing to show up on June 23.
Pollsters are
cynical about the prime minister’s warning, insisting that in
reality neither side has much of a demographic advantage. It is true
that Brexit is boosted by its support among the elderly, who are more
likely to vote than the young. But Remain is equally helped by
support among the educated and wealthy, who are also more likely to
turnout.
Vote Leave believes
it has two key advantages which have been overlooked: geography and
enthusiasm. Support for remaining in the EU is higher in Labour’s
inner cities where turnout is historically much lower than in
wealthier Tory areas. This gives Brexit an in-built advantage in a
nationwide referendum where the contest is a simple race for the most
votes.
The second boon for
Brexit is that voters who want out are far more passionate than those
who want to remain. Internal polling from Vote Leave has confirmed
there is no love for the EU even among those who want to stay.
This means the
magnetic power of the status quo, pulling voters back from the brink,
is far less powerful than in previous referendums such as in Quebec
or Scotland.
The lower the
turnout the more advantage Vote Leave feels is has. Anything between
55-60 percent and Britain is heading for Brexit, they believe.
4. Half-hearted
Labour
Labour is caught in
a trap and doesn’t know what to do. Unlike the Tories, Labour MPs
were relatively united in their support for EU membership. But then
the party’s core voters started telling them something different.
“We’re getting
killed, it’s madness,” one senior Labour MP said. “We’re
being asked to argue with our voters, telling them that they’re
wrong about immigration and the EU. And then at the end we’re
supposed to turn around and say vote Labour. It’s like putting up a
sign saying vote UKIP.”
British PM David
Cameron, right, and Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn at the Palace
of Westminster | Stefan Wermuth/WPA Pool via Getty Images
British PM David
Cameron, right, and Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn at the Palace
of Westminster | Stefan Wermuth/WPA Pool via Getty Images
The problem reflects
the irony at the heart of the Brexit debate: Wealthier voters tend to
support the Euroskeptic Tories, but also favor British membership of
the EU. Poorer voters want to leave, but support the pro-European
Labour Party. UKIP is making hay from the confusion.
Corbyn believes the
answer is to support EU membership but criticize Brussels and call
for reform to reflect voters concerns. Labour MPs are furious and
claim he is simply undermining support for Remain.
At a meeting of the
shadow cabinet Tuesday last week Corbyn was forced to defend himself
after open criticism from his team.
Without Labour
voters, Cameron cannot hope to carry the country.
5. TV debates
One bad debate does
not a Brexit make, but Cameron cannot afford a pattern to emerge.
The prime minister
emerged relatively unscathed from his first TV interrogation June 2
on Sky, primarily because hardly anyone bothered to watch with
England playing Portugal on the other channel. His TV scuffle with
Nigel Farage a few days later, watched by 4 million people, went well
but did not move the dial.
Then came the
beating for Remain on Thursday when a co-ordinated assault from the
three Brexit MPs saw Boris & Co. emerge triumphant.
Downing Street will
take solace in paltry viewing figures for the two-hour debate, with
just 3 million tuning in — 1 million fewer than a DIY programme on
the BBC that night.
But if the public
did not notice, Westminster and Fleet Street certainly did. A strong
performance from Michael Gove in front of a BBC audience on Wednesday
could give Leave momentum going into the final week. Cameron will
need a strong showing on June 19 when it’s his turn to face
questions.
6. Newspapers
It might not seem so
in Brussels, but British newspapers are not uniformly hostile to the
EU.
The left-wing Mirror
tabloid has a working-class readership, of which around half will
vote to leave, but the paper itself is pro-EU. The mass-market Daily
Record in Scotland is also for Remain, along with the Guardian and
Financial Times.
A resentful nation
toying with Brexit could be pushed over the edge by a humiliating
defeat to a team of footballing minnows from central Europe.
Nevertheless, most
of the biggest circulation London newspapers are fiercely anti-EU.
The Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph and Sun have been relentlessly
hostile to Number 10 throughout the campaign and are likely to remain
so until polling day.
Whether or not they
officially campaign for Brexit, the die has been cast.
And while newspapers
do not have the power they once had, almost 4 million people a day
still read the three main anti-EU newspapers. Their influence cannot
be dismissed.
7. Football
On Monday June 20,
barely 36 hours before polls open on Thursday morning, England play
their final group game in the European Championships against
Slovakia.
After crashing out
of the World Cup at the same stage two years ago, Number 10 will be
praying history doesn’t repeat itself. A resentful nation toying
with Brexit could be pushed over the edge by a humiliating defeat to
a team of footballing minnows from central Europe.
This scenario is not
without precedent. In 1987, the unpopular Labour government in New
Zealand was unexpectedly re-elected after the country won the Rugby
World Cup. Twelve years later the country threw out the government
after a shock loss in the semifinal of another Rugby World Cup.
The European
Championships could also serve to dampen turnout, boosting Brexit, by
dominating the airwaves during the debates.
On Wednesday Michael
Gove goes head to head with France vs. Albania, while four days later
Cameron is up against the Switzerland vs. France group game decider.
On the 21st, the day
of the live Wembley BBC debate, most of Northern Ireland will be in
the pub after playing Germany at 5 pm. One of the best games of the
opening group stages, Croatia v Spain, will also be televized that
night.
While the timing is
not ideal, Number 10 is not stupid. On referendum day itself there
are no football games at all.
8. Lecturing elites
The U.K. government
is banned from using its bureaucratic power to pump out propaganda
for the final month of the campaign but this does not stop
“independent” international bodies doing it for them.
Vote Leave’s data
collection is geared towards final canvassing push. In total they
plan to knock on three million doors in the last two days.
Just days before the
vote, the International Monetary Fund — part funded by the U.K. —
will publish a report likely to warn about the dangers of Brexit.
George Osborne won’t miss the opportunity to use an annual speech
at Mansion House to ram home his warnings.
Far from being
concerned, Vote Leave are positively thrilled at the prospect. The
Chancellor pictured in white tie speaking to a room full of bankers
is not a major concern, they point out.
And while Christine
Lagarde may be respected among certain circles, to most people in the
country she will come over as a wealthy French woman lecturing them
on how to vote, Vote Leave believe.
9. Brexit ground war
Vote Leave is
planning a door-knocking Brexit blitz in the last few days before the
vote which they believe will see them over the line.
Having built their
own software to target voters based on canvassing returns, the
campaign plans a major ground operation between Monday and Thursday
next week to get people to encourage their friends and family to turn
out for Brexit.
Vote Leave says all
their data collection has been geared towards the final push. In
total they plan to knock on three million doors in the last two days.
This operation rests
on the campaign’s fired-up army of volunteers. Downing Street will
hope the plan is as unsuccessful as Labour’s infamous boast to hold
“5 million conversations” in the run up to the last election,
which failed to swing the result.
10. The unknowns
What happens if
there is a terrorist attack? No one knows.
Vote Leave say they
observed a brief upswing in support for Brexit immediately after the
Paris terror attacks. In 2004 the Spanish government was kicked out
three days after Al Qaeda attacked the Madrid rail network. A similar
attack during the European Championships could spark an equally
volatile political reaction in the U.K.
The migrant crisis
may also rear its head. Recent revelations about boatloads of
Albanians attempting to cross the Channel to reach the U.K. coincided
with a spike in support for leaving, Leave insiders say.
A major incident in
the final few days of the campaign and all bets are off.
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