“A
decade ago, when Turkey’s democracy thrived, Europe wanted nothing
to do with the Turks. Nowadays, the more autocratic we get, the more
Europeans seem to want us — as long as we keep the refugees.”
LETTER
FROM ISTANBUL
What
‘Boss’ Erdoğan’s after
Erdoğan
is rushing to switch Turkey’s governing system to presidential rule
— and his prime minister is the latest casualty.
By
ASLI AYDINTASBAS 5/7/16, 5:32 AM CET
ISTANBUL — A day
after Turkey’s Europe-friendly Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was
sacked, the man many say was behind the decision, President Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan, lashed out at the European Union once again, saying
that Ankara would not bow to Brussels’ demands.
“We will go our
way, you go yours,” Erdoğan said. Turkey will fight terrorism the
way it sees fit, he added, and flat-out refused to make changes to
the country’s anti-terror legislation to meet European
requirements. The announcement cast doubt on the EU’s plan to grant
Turks visa-free travel to the Schengen area and strengthened concerns
that Erdoğan is rushing to switch the governing system to
presidential rule.
Erdoğan is not
bluffing. With Davutoğlu out of the way, he will change the
country’s anti-terror legislation, but in a way that would allow
journalists or academics who “are supportive of terrorism,”
according to a prosecutor, to be treated as terrorists. He also wants
to expand the definition of terrorism to apply to other opponents of
his governing style.
On top of that, he
wants Europe to keep quiet about it and about everything else that
might happen in the country while he strengthens his rule. Given that
the Turkey-EU relationship is essentially hostage to the refugee
crisis, and that Europe has already proved it is willing to
compromise its values in exchange for Turkey keeping the refugees,
Erdoğan may well get his wish.
And therein lies the
irony of Turkey’s relationship with Europe. A decade ago, when
Turkey’s democracy thrived, Europe wanted nothing to do with the
Turks. Nowadays, the more autocratic we get, the more Europeans seem
to want us — as long as we keep the refugees.
Take what happened
on Wednesday night, when Turkish television paid very little
attention to the fact that the European Commission had recommended
lifting the Schengen visa requirement for Turkish citizens, finally
cracking open Europe’s heavily fortified gates to Turks.
Davutoğlu thought
he actually was the prime minister of Turkey. Big mistake.
That evening, all
that Turkish viewers cared about was the kabuki dance between Erdoğan
and his hand-picked prime minister, Davutoğlu, following a week of
speculation that tensions were running high between the two.
In a move
orchestrated by Erdoğan the week before, the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) had stripped Turkey’s ever-smiling premier
of all powers within the party. Even though neither of them explained
the decision as they were posing for cameras at various gatherings,
and Turkey’s tightly-controlled media was too timid to ask about
rumors of a potential rift, it was clear that something had been
cooking.
On social media, a
peculiar fight broke out between Erdoğan and Davutoğlu supporters.
Then a post by an anonymous author called the “Pelican Declaration”
appeared online, viciously attacking Davutoğlu for allegedly trying
to undermine Turkey’s president by, among other things, conspiring
with Europe.
This couldn’t have
been written without a direct sign-off from the presidency, everyone
assumed.
They were right.
After a meeting
between the two men that lasted less than two hours, Turkey’s prime
minister was sacked.
This wasn’t in
line with the constitution, but then again what is constitutional in
Turkey these days? Davutoğlu’s approval ratings were high. He had
won an election in November with nearly 50 percent of the votes and
brokered a miraculous deal on refugees with the European Union,
jump-starting Turkey’s long-idle EU accession process.
* * *
Amid the darkness
that had descended on Turkey, with the obvious slip into
authoritarianism, Davutoğlu had tried to smooth the edges off
Erdoğan’s one-man rule. He tried to counterbalance Erdoğan’s
harsh rhetoric on Europe with EU–friendly statements and maneuvered
behind the scenes for the release of academics who had been arrested
for signing a peace declaration. He also tried to free high-profile
journalists, jailed on charges brought up by Erdoğan.
Davutoğlu never
confronted Erdoğan publicly, but cautiously led efforts to alter the
course of events, trying to pass anti-corruption legislation, curbing
the country’s unchecked urban development zeal, exerting control
over the party and enlisting more reformist AKP types as
parliamentarians.
He failed on all
counts.
Of course, Davutoğlu
was no freedom fighter. There were far too many human rights
violations under his watch, too, and at the center of it is the
horrendous fighting between the Turkish army and the Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK). On that the former premier did nothing. Every
public speech he made was an effort to appease Erdoğan, often
underlying how they saw eye-to-eye on everything. But in his own way,
behind the scenes, he tried to polish rough edges off Erdoğan’s
draconian rule.
And therein lay his
downfall.
Davutoğlu thought
he actually was the prime minister of Turkey. But the role Turkey’s
president had cut out for him was more of a “coordinator” of
government services until Erdoğan managed to tip the balance of
power from the government to the president.
A
decade ago, when Turkey’s democracy thrived, Europe wanted nothing
to do with the Turks. Nowadays, the more autocratic we get, the more
Europeans seem to want us — as long as we keep the refugees.
Under the Turkish
system, the presidency is a largely ceremonial post. The power lies
with the executive branch, led by the prime minister. But Erdoğan
made it clear since he was elected in August 2014 that he would be “a
different kind of president,” attending cabinet meetings even
though that is allowed only under an emergency clause in the
constitution. Soon after his inauguration, he announced plans for a
new constitution that changed Turkey’s system to a U.S. style
presidential system.
There was discontent
in the presidential palace that Davutoğlu was not wholeheartedly
supporting these changes. The prime minister, after all, had
committed the cardinal sin after the June 2015 election, when he
said: “We wanted a presidential system but the people did not
approve it.”
Erdoğan never
forgave him.
Europe contributed
to Davutoğlu’s demise, while trying to do exactly the opposite.
European officials have been telling me for months that part of their
leniency on Turkey had to do with a desire to empower the more
“reformist” side of the AKP led by Davutoğlu. “We have no
other leverage or policy other than hoping that Davutoğlu would be
able to reign Erdoğan in,” a senior diplomat said a few weeks ago.
Davutoğlu, 57, is a
former academic and a graduate of Turkey’s prestigious Bosphorus
University. He is fluent in English and German, and compared to the
stern-looking Erdoğan, he was the friendly face of Turkey in Europe.
Within the AKP political elite, Davutoğlu is called Hoca — a
teacher or professor — and Erdogan is always referred to as Reis —
The Boss.
Turkish President
Erdogan commissioned PM Davutoglu to form the new government
President of Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (R) with former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet
Davutoğlu (L) in Ankara, Turkey on November 17, 2015 | Kayhan
Ozer/Anadolu Agency viaGetty Images
One of those who
fell for Hoca’s charms was German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who
reversed her policy of keeping Turkey at arm’s-length from Europe.
When the Continent faced the refugee crises, she developed a close
working relationship with Davutoğlu. It was in March, over a
five-hour dinner at the Turkish Embassy in Brussels, that two
clinched the €3 billion deal for refugees. The pact also stipulated
visa-free travel to the EU for Turks that could come as early as
June.
Back home and
throughout the delicate negotiations in Brussels, Erdoğan kept
blasting Europe at public rallies, alleging the Europeans were
supporting terrorism, baulking on a promise to deliver €3 billion
for the Syrian refugees in Turkey, having double standards etc.
He was irked by the
attention showered on his prime minister and saw in it an
international plot to undermine him. What finally pushed him over the
edge was a statement by Martin Schulz, the president of the European
Parliament, to Bild Am Sontag in April.
“We have made the
pact, not with Mr. Erdoğan but with the Turkish Republic,” Schulz
said. Erdoğan responded that this was “an operation against Turkey
by the German school,” using terminology from the world of
intelligence — operasyon — and underlying what he saw as
Germany’s role in boosting the Turkish president. (Incidentally,
Davutoğlu is a graduate of a German high school in Istanbul.)
* * *
None of this was
unexpected, but it unraveled faster and sooner than most expected.
There is no doubt
that Turkey is entering an even darker period because most moderate
voices have been sidelined and checks-and-balances against what
Erdoğan calls “a Turkish-style presidency,” all but removed. Of
course, the AKP’s ranks are filled with disgruntled Islamists who
feel that the country is taking a wrong turn, but after seeing how
Davutoğlu had been treated, few will have the courage to raise their
voice.
Given Erdoğan’s
resolve to reverse Turkey’s gains in Europe to tighten his grip on
power, the May 22 AKP party congress to find Davutoğlu’s successor
already appears a farce. There are three candidates whose names have
been floated – one is Erdoğan’s son-in-law and the other two are
his trusted confidants.
None of them matter,
though. From now on, Turkey will be run by one man.
Asli Aydintasbas is
a journalist based in Istanbul.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário