terça-feira, 24 de maio de 2016

5 takeaways from Austria’s presidential election


5 takeaways from Austria’s presidential election
As the Greens squeeze out the far-right, the mainstream looks increasingly like a spent force.

By MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG 5/23/16, 8:20 PM CET

VIENNA — Austrian Green Alexander Van der Bellen scored a come-from-behind victory in the country’s run-off presidential election Sunday that few believed possible.

The end result, not announced until Monday afternoon after postal ballots were counted, put Van der Bellen just 31,000 votes ahead of his challenger Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom Party. Van der Bellen won 50.3 percent of the vote to Hofer’s 49.7 percent.

With Austria at the center of the refugee crisis, the campaign attracted intense interest across Europe. The country has taken in more refugees per capita than most other EU members and the politics of immigration as well as the role of Islam featured prominently in the campaign.

Hofer, who dominated the first round, winning 35 percent in a crowded field, had appeared poised to win the run-off as well, a result that would have made him Europe’s first right-wing head of state.

Fearing that outcome, a broad coalition coalesced behind Van der Bellen, producing a photo finish in one of the most dramatic electoral contests in recent European history.

Here are five takeaways from the election.

1. Europe’s postwar political establishment is crumbling

Above all, the Austrian result illustrates that the center-right and center-left parties that have dominated the Continent’s politics since World War II are in retreat.

The Social Democratic and People’s Party blocs that have ensured stability for decades across much of the region are quickly losing their appeal. The first round of the election, in which the establishment parties finished at the bottom of the field, amounted to a repudiation of their stewardship.

Austria, like Germany, is governed by a grand coalition, a constellation that if left in place for too long stokes support for the political fringe.

2. Polarization is the new normal

The cozy days of polite political debate in Western Europe are over. The exchanges between Van der Bellen and Hofer were some of the most caustic in recent memory.

Alexander Van der Bellen reacts during an election party after the second round of the Austrian President elections
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With candidates outside of the mainstream increasingly joining the political fray — the first presidential round in Austria included six hopefuls — the tone of the debate is getting sharper. Though Eastern Europeans are known to go for the jugular (sometimes literally), politics in Western Europe have for the most part been staid. With the emergence of the Alternative für Deutschland in Germany and the resurgence of the right wing in France, the Netherlands and Scandinavia, that’s changing.

Austria highlights a more troubling aspect of that trend: a widening class divide. While well-educated city dwellers supported Van der Bellen, low-earning rural and working class Austrians backed Hofer. The country hasn’t seen such stark divisions in its electorate since the 1930s, when clashes between rightist and leftist forces almost triggered a civil war.

The results of the close run-off come in | Jan Hetfleisch/Getty Images
The results of the close run-off come in | Jan Hetfleisch/Getty Images
3. The wealthy aren’t immune to the pull of populists

By any objective measure, Austria counts as one of Europe’s, indeed the world’s, richest nations. Unemployment is low, compared to most EU countries, and growth is stable, if not spectacular. That the Freedom Party nonetheless succeeded in upending the country’s politics shows that voters care as much about the future as they do the present. The core of the party’s supporters may not be rich, but they aren’t poor either.

The Freedom Party’s message is that Austria is headed in the wrong direction. Even if Austrians feel comfortable now, Islam, the EU and the forces of globalization threaten to destroy their future, the party warns. With countries across Europe confronting similar societal headwinds, look for the Freedom Party’s playbook to be adopted by parties in other parts of Western Europe.

4. Europe’s liberals may be down, but they’re not out

Van der Bellen’s come-from-behind victory shows that when the chips are down, the Continent’s pro-EU, liberal forces can rally together and carry the day. In the run-off, Van der Bellen won 1.3 million more votes than in the first round, indicating that fear of a Freedom Party victory drove large numbers of conservative voters into his camp. In addition, turnout was high, at 73 percent, with many voters who didn’t turn up for the first round casting a ballot in the second.

5. Sincerity sells

Love them or hate them, a quality both candidates in the race shared was authenticity. Unlike the mainstream parties, which have waffled and reversed course on myriad issues, Van der Bellen and Hofer left little question about where they stood on the key topics of the day.


Van der Bellen was unapologetic about his stance on welcoming refugees, his support for the EU and conviction that the Schengen treaty is a cornerstone of Europe’s stability. Hofer, meanwhile, spoke just as clearly about what he regards as the urgency to secure Austria’s borders and keep the EU from encroaching too much on Austria’s sovereignty.

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