Turkey
power shift upends EU refugee deal
The
sudden transition will pose a significant challenge to the country’s
relations with Europe.
By SINAN ÜLGEN
5/5/16, 5:06 PM CET Updated 5/5/16, 11:12 PM CET
ISTANBUL — The
growing power struggle between Turkey’s Prime Minister Ahmet
Davutoğlu and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reached its inevitable
conclusion Thursday with Erdoğan forcing Davutoğlu’s resignation.
The ruling AK Party will now hold an extraordinary convention May 22
to elect its new leader and the country’s chief executive office
holder. As the outgoing prime minister, Davutoğlu confirmed that he
would not stand for nomination.
Yet as smooth as it
may appear on the surface, this sudden transition is set to have a
significant impact on the country’s relations with Europe and the
fate of the refugee deal.
The change in the
power constellation in Turkey comes at a most inopportune time. Just
a day earlier, the European Commission conditionally recommended to
proceed with visa freedom with Turkey. Having very much commended
Ankara’s recent efforts to comply with the 72 technical criteria
set out as conditions for the lifting of visas, the Commission
nonetheless stated that Turkey would still need to fulfill five of
them to achieve this objective.
Of key importance is
the criteria that requires Turkey to change its anti-terror
legislation in line with the European acquis and the jurisprudence of
the European Court of Human Rights. Turkey would also need to ensure
that its courts interpret the law and its law enforcement apply the
legislation in accordance with European norms and practices. As a
country that is under a palpable threat of terrorism as a result of
the PKK’s armed campaign and the Islamic State’s suicide attacks,
Turkey has been unable and unwilling to fulfill this condition.
* * *
But with the power
shift in Ankara, it has become even more difficult for Turkey to
comply with such a requirement. Compared to Davutoğlu, Erdoğan has
been much more categorical and hawkish regarding the implementation
of the anti-terror legislation. The difference of opinion emerged
very clearly with a recent case against academics who had signed a
peace petition to end the violence in Turkey’s southeast. Many of
the petitioners were prosecuted, some even incarcerated for allegedly
backing the PKK, a Kurdish terrorist entity according to Ankara.
Erdoğan strongly
backed these proceedings while calling for the anti-terror law to be
broadened in scope and amended to include academics, writers and
journalists that could be charged with abetting terrorism. So it is
increasingly unlikely that with Erdoğan’s move to replace the AKP
leadership and his unassailable influence over the ruling party,
Turkey will be in a position to change its anti-terror legislation as
stipulated by the European Commission.
Another key request
from the Commission relates to the recently adopted legislation on
data privacy where Brussels demands more independence for the Data
Protection Authority but also more restraint for government agencies
in terms of access to personal data on grounds of public order and
national security. This will require the establishment of new norms
of democratic transparency and accountability for the workings of the
security and intelligence agencies, yet another
politically-challenging task for Turkish authorities.
At the same time,
the Commission’s margin of maneuver seems limited by the ongoing
negotiations with the U.S. on cross border data flows where Brussels
is intent on getting additional assurances from Washington for the
protection of personal data.
Turkey will now
launch a diplomatic initiative to gauge whether European institutions
can demonstrate a degree of flexibility regarding the residual
conditions. But the initial signs are not particularly positive with
the president of the European Parliament stating unequivocally that
Commission recommendation to lift visas will not be forwarded to the
relevant Parliamentary committee for deliberation until Turkey
fulfills all the remaining conditions.
* * *
So just within hours
of the Commission’s recommendation, the roadmap for visa
liberalization and by extension the refugee deal seems to be upended.
Ankara stated
clearly that it would suspend the Turkey-EU Readmission Agreement
unless it receives visa freedom from Europe, potentially leading to
the collapse of the whole refugee deal. So instead of a happy ending,
the prospect of which had been briefly ushered in by the Commission
recommendation, the more likely scenario now is one of a bitter
divorce.
The consequences
will be significant not only for Ankara’s relations with Europe but
also for many European countries that will start to face growing
number of illegal migrants on their shores.
Sinan Ülgen is a
former Turkish diplomat, the executive chairman of the Istanbul based
EDAM think tank and a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in
Brussels.
Authors:
Sinan Ülgen
Turkey’s
Prime Minister Resigns Over Muted Differences With Erdogan
BY HENRY JOHNSONMAY
5, 2016 - 9:53 AM
Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s quest to consolidate power has claimed one
of his closest and highest-profile allies: Prime Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu.
In his resignation
speech Thursday, Davutoglu said he had concluded, after consulting
with the president, that a change in the “prime minister’s
position would serve a better purpose.” His vaguely worded
explanation appears to reference Erdogan’s proposed constitutional
amendment to further empower the president and reduce the position of
the prime minister to a ceremonial one.
Despite ending a
long and fruitful professional relationship with Erdogan, Davutoglu,
who served as his foreign minister for five years before becoming
prime minister in 2014, assured the public that they remain on good
terms.
“Our relationship
is still friendly. … You will never hear me say negative things
about the president,” Davutoglu said in his speech at the
headquarters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). He
said he would step down after a party meeting on May 22.
Rumors of a
falling-out between the two men started to swirl a few days ago,
first appearing on a mysterious blog. The writer, a suspected Erdogan
confidante, accused Davutoglu of betraying the country by resisting
the planned transition to a presidential system and supporting a
“transparency law,” among other initiatives opposed by the
president.
In his years as
foreign minister, Davutoglu forged strong working relationships with
many foreign leaders in the West, including with U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He was the
point man for negotiating Turkey’s agreement this spring to accept
unwanted refugees from Europe in return for money and visa-free
travel.
He also may have
been caught in the middle of Erdogan’s ongoing battle with free
speech and press freedoms. Davutoglu was by no means a publicly
ardent and outspoken defender of the media, but as recently as March,
he told a European Council assembly he was “against any restriction
of freedom of speech.”
Erdogan, by
contrast, has been relentless on his critics in the media,
protesters, and others who dare to even poke fun at him — whether
in Turkey or beyond its borders.
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