Brussels
embraces open borders for Turks
‘Qualified’
recommendation for visa liberalization expected Wednesday.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 5/2/16, 5:34 AM CET
European Commission
will recommend visa-free travel for Turkish citizens in Europe
Wednesday, setting the stage for an acrimonious debate over whether
the EU has traded principle for expediency to salvage its refugee
deal with Turkey.
Barring a
last-minute complication, the Commission will make a “qualified”
recommendation for visa liberalization, officials said.
That means the
Commission’s endorsement is contingent on Ankara’s fulfillment of
the entire catalog of 72 “benchmarks” required of applicant
countries. Turkey has met most, though not all of the criteria, a
list that includes everything from introducing biometric passports to
ensuring rights of minorities.
The Commission’s
recommendation, which it has rushed to complete, is a critical step.
The final decision on whether to grant Turks visa-free travel,
expected at the end of June, rests with member-country leaders.
The question is
whether the proposal will ever get that far.
Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s crackdown on critics both at home and
abroad has hardened resistance to the deal, creating an unlikely
coalition between left- and right-wing forces that want to torpedo
it.
They have a fair
chance of doing so in the European Parliament, which must approve the
plan before it goes to the leaders.
Erdogan’s recent
attacks on Kurds, and on opposition politicians and journalists,
leave the EU with no choice but to reject the agreement, opponents
argue.
“There are all
sorts of reasons to say no: the failure to respect human rights,
democracy, freedom of expression, the crushing of minorities,”
Fabio Massimo Castaldo, a populist MEP from Italy, said during a
debate last week, arguing that the deal was “illegal.”
The Commission’s
public response has been twofold: First, it says that there is no
viable alternative to the Turkey deal if Europe wants to halt the
flow of refugees and save Greece from becoming a giant refugee camp;
second, while condemning Erdoğan’s attacks on journalists and
other critics, the Commission argues that ignoring Turkey, as Europe
did in recent years, would make the situation even worse.
“What have those
years of not engaging brought us?” Commission Vice President Frans
Timmermans asked during a debate in the European Parliament Thursday.
“What have those years done for human rights in Turkey? For the
position of the press in Turkey? Nothing.”
There is no
indication Brussels is watering down conditions Ankara must fulfill.
Whether Erdoğan will respect those is another matter.
The argument isn’t
without merit. Erdoğan will have to make a number of uncomfortable
concessions on issues such as campaign finance and privacy rights in
order to seal the deal.
In many cases,
compliance is in the eye of the beholder. Still, there is no
indication Brussels is watering down the conditions Ankara must
fulfill, in terms of passing legislation and adopting EU rules.
Whether Erdoğan will actually respect those standards in practice is
another matter.
The Turkish leader’s
recent moves against critics suggest he won’t. European officials
have been perplexed by what they call Erdoğan’s “provocations.”
The EU’s main
counterpart in the negotiations has been Prime Minister Ahmet
Davutoğlu, considered a moderate voice in Erdoğan’s Justice and
Development Party. One theory is that Erdoğan is trying to show he
intends to keep the party’s pro-European camp in check.
Whatever the case,
there’s little doubt that moves such as the raid on opposition
newspaper Zaman just minutes after European Council President Donald
Tusk left the country in March, are meant to send the message that
Erdoğan won’t dance to Brussels’ tune.
Questions remain
about the commitment of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government to human
rights.
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Erdoğan has
appeared to relish reminding Europe that Brussels “needs Turkey
more than Turkey needs the European Union,” as he said last month.
That’s partly
bluster. With the so-called Balkan route to northern Europe
effectively closed, refugees have less reason to leave Turkey for
Greece. If the EU-Turkey deal collapsed, Ankara would also face a
bigger burden. Under the agreement, it receives financial aid to deal
with the influx and can also transfer some Syrian refugees to Europe.
While freedom of
travel is just one of several concessions Europe made to Turkey in
March to secure the refugee deal, it is by far the most significant
one.
Turkey has been
negotiating with Brussels over visa liberalization for some time and
was on course to complete the process later this year, but Ankara
worried it could be derailed and put the issue on the table during
the refugee talks. The EU agreed to settle the issue by the end of
June, provided Turkey meets the requirements.
For Turks, the
promise of visa-free entry to Europe is about much more than just
convenience. Above all, it’s an acknowledgement that Turkey is a
respected partner, a first-world power that stands
shoulder-to-shoulder with the West.
In Europe, facing a
surge in right-wing populism, establishment politicians regard the
move with trepidation. The worry is that Europe could see a surge of
Turkish asylum seekers and economic migrants. Even though the
agreement would include an “emergency brake,” allowing the EU to
suspend it, the political damage would be done.
That EU leaders
accepted visa-free travel in the face of migration concerns | Hakan
Goktepe/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
European Council
President Donald Tusk with Ahmet Davutoğlu and Angela Merkel
(right). EU leaders accepted visa-free travel in the face of
migration concerns | Hakan Goktepe/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
That EU leaders
accepted visa-free travel in the face of those concerns reflects how
desperate the bloc, and in particular Germany, was to win Turkey’s
assistance.
Now, with the deal
showing early promise, officials say they are determined to see it
through. There is no plan B.
In private, European
officials acknowledge the credibility gap that the deal with Turkey
has created.
“We’re not going
to turn them into a model democracy by Wednesday,” one official
said. “It’s going to be very difficult.”
At the same time,
they insist the crisis can’t be resolved without Turkey’s help.
Some officials have
begun comparing the refugee crisis to the eurozone debt crisis. The
EU-Turkey deal, they say, represents the same kind of turning point
as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s pledge to do
“whatever it takes” to save the euro. Controversial at the time,
Draghi’s move succeeded in calming investor fears the common
currency was on the verge of collapse.
Since the Turkey
deal came into force, the number of refugees arriving in Greece has
dropped from as many as 10,000 per day last fall to a handful.
“It’s
impressive,” the official said. “Yes, Turkey is a difficult
partner but there is no alternative.”
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