The fate of French President Emmanuel Macron’s
flagship pensions reform is going down to the wire.
Speculation is running high that Macron might not have
enough support in the National Assembly, and may choose a constitutional
maneuver to bypass parliament | Christophe Archambault/AFP via Getty Images
BY CLEA
CAULCUTT AND ELISA BERTHOLOMEY
MARCH 16,
2023 4:01 AM CET
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-pensions-revolt-presidency-france/
PARIS —
French President Emmanuel Macron will face a moment of reckoning Thursday as
lawmakers gear up for a final vote on the government’s deeply unpopular pension
reform.
The
controversial bill, a centerpiece of Macron’s second term, has sparked weeks of
nationwide protests led by trade unions and faced intense criticism from both
the far left and the far right in the National Assembly.
The French
president wants to increase the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62 and
extend contributions for a full pension in an effort to balance the accounts of
France’s state pensions system — among the most generous in the world.
According to projections from France’s Council of Pensions Planning, the
finances of the pensions system are balanced in the short term but will go into
deficit in the long term.
Despite
government concessions on various aspects of the bill in recent weeks,
opposition to the reform remains very high, with polls saying two-thirds of
French citizens oppose it.
Speculation
is running high that Macron might not have enough support in the National Assembly,
and may choose a constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament — in a move that
could unleash a political storm in France.
On
Thursday, the French Senate and the National Assembly are expected to cast a
crucial vote on the second reading of the bill, after the Senate voted in favor
last week. The outcome will determine the shape of Macron’s second term and
stands to bear heavily on his legacy.
The worst case: Macron loses the vote in parliament
Losing the
parliamentary vote would be a stunning defeat for the French president, who
pinned his bid for a second term on his promises to reform France’s pensions
system. But political commentators have been speculating in recent days that
Macron’s Renaissance party doesn’t have enough votes to pass the bill.
The French
president lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly in parliamentary
elections last June. He has since been forced into making ad-hoc deals with MPs
from France’s conservative party Les Républicains. But the once-mighty
conservatives appear split on the reform, despite assurances this week from
their leader Olivier Marleix that there was “a clear majority” backing the
bill.
A defeat in
parliament would have seismic and long-term repercussions for Macron’s second
term and it is likely that the president’s trusted lieutenant Prime Minister
Elizabeth Borne would have to resign in such a scenario. Party heavyweights
however say they will not shy away from seeking a vote.
“There will
be a vote, we want a vote, everyone must take its responsibilities,” said
Aurore Bergé, leader of the Renaissance group in the National Assembly.
“There can
be an accident … we’ll manage it as we can,” admitted Jean-Paul Mattei, a
centrist MP who belongs to Macron’s coalition, with reference to a defeat in
parliament.
However,
this is the most unlikely scenario as expectations are that the government will
bypass a vote if they sense that they are short on votes.
Pretty bad: Macron bypasses parliament and loses
credibility
In the face
of a potential defeat in the National Assembly, Macron has a nuclear option:
invoke article 49.3 of the French constitution. This mechanism allows the
government to force through legislation without submitting it to a vote.
While the
constitutional maneuver may seem like an easy way out, it’s a highly risky move
as it allows lawmakers to table a motion of no confidence within 24 hours.
Macron’s government has faced down motions of no confidence in the past but the
stakes are much higher this time around.
Beyond
surviving a motion of no-confidence, Macron and Borne will also come under fire
for refusing to submit to the democratic process.
According
to Frédéric Dabi, general director of the IFOP polling institute, the impact on
public opinion if the government uses the 49.3 article as opposed to passing a
tight vote in parliament would be “radically different.”
“Public
opinions on the 49.3 article have changed … it is regarded as a tool to
brutalize the National Assembly: it’s now seen as authoritarian instead of
merely authoritative. People want more transparency, more democracy today,” he
said.
France’s
hardline unions would no doubt use this to stoke unrest and call for further
strike action.
Trade union
leader Laurent Berger has warned the government against using the 49.3 article,
saying that it would be “incredible and dangerous.”
“Nobody can
predict what will happen, the protest movement seems to be running out of
steam, but if the government invokes article 49.3 it could be read as forcing
the issue and may relaunch the protest movement,” said Dabi.
Still not great: Macron wins vote but faces mass
protests
If the
French president wins the vote in parliament, it’ll be seen as a victory but
one that may completely drain his political capital, and whip up protests on
the streets.
“It’ll be a
victory for Macron, but it’ll only bear its fruit in the long term. In the
short term, he’ll face a tense country where relations have become very
strained,” said Chloé Morin, a writer and political analyst.
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