Brussels Playbook: Donald Trumped — Marin’s last
dance — Mid-week tipple
BY SUZANNE
LYNCH
MARCH 31,
2023 7:14 AM CET
Brussels
Playbook
By SUZANNE
LYNCH
with ZOYA
SHEFTALOVICH
BREAKING
OVERNIGHT: Donald Trump has become the first former U.S. president in history
to face criminal charges, after a grand jury in New York indicted him over hush
money paid to porn actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential
campaign. More here from our colleagues across the pond on a development that
may reshape next year’s U.S. presidential election (Trump’s team is
capitalizing on the move; some of his most ardent supporters are going quiet).
Read this Q&A on the indictment, and keep an eye on our hub for the latest
developments.
DRIVING THE
WEEKEND: MARIN’S LAST DANCE
FACING THE
MUSIC: It’s crunch time for Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin as voters go to
the polls this weekend in a general election that could lead to a change in
government in the Nordic state.
NECK AND
NECK: Opinion polls suggest the result is too close to call. POLITICO’s Poll of
Polls aggregator has Marin’s Social Democratic Party (SDP) tied for second
place with the right-wing Finns Party on 19 percent, just behind the
center-right National Coalition Party on 20 percent. The final poll ahead of
the election by Yle puts Marin’s SDP narrowly in third place.
Recap:
Marin may have shot to fame last summer when footage surfaced of her letting
loose on the dance floor, but it’s worth remembering she only got the job as
prime minister after Antti Rinne resigned over a labor dispute six months after
the 2019 election. Since then, Marin has presided over a five-party coalition,
and is facing criticism for over-spending and over-borrowing — a key concern
for the prudent Finns.
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Rightward
tilt: As always in Europe, this week’s election is being viewed as a barometer
for the political mood, and will be parsed for any sign of a right-wing shift
in the electorate. The prospect of a far-right surge is not unthinkable, with
the Finns Party — formerly known as the True Finns — on course to win enough
seats in the 200-strong assembly to have a shot at forming a government.
Fascist
elements: Finland is already grappling with an openly fascist party. Helsingin
Sanomat revealed earlier this week that the Blue-and-Black Movement scrubbed
illegal sections of its election program to get on the official party register,
Playbook’s own Ketrin Jochecová reports. But the items that were removed are
still in the party’s online program, according to HS, and include plans to
re-examine all residence permits and citizenships granted after 1990, to
establish an ethnic register to monitor Finland’s population structure and to
limit freedom of speech.
Background:
Blue-and-Black — which draws its name from a fascist party active in the 1930s
— doesn’t stand much of a chance in the election. (Several members were
expelled from the Finns Party for being too extreme, and one of the current
candidates was sentenced to prison for an attempted murder.) But an antisemitic
attack on a Jewish member of parliament, Ben Zyskowicz, at a metro station in
Helsinki earlier this week has sparked soul-searching and outrage in Finland
ahead of Sunday’s contest.
NATO
UPDATE: In a boost for its NATO aspirations, the Turkish parliament ratified
Finland’s bid to join the defense alliance last night, following a similar move
by Hungary during the week. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg
told Lili Bayer that Sweden could still become a NATO member by the summer.
BALKANS
MONTENEGRO
RACE: Finland is not the only country to go to the polls this weekend, with
Montenegro’s presidential runoff taking place Sunday. Milo Đukanović, a fixture
on the Montenegrin political scene for decades, has a battle on his hands as he
faces off against Jakov Milatović, a relative newcomer who is part of the
current coalition government.
Refresher:
Though Đukanović won 35.2 percent over Milatović’s 29.2 percent in the
first-round vote earlier this month, he’s unlikely to pick up much support from
elsewhere in Sunday’s runoff. Đukanović — an early ally of Serbian leader
Slobodan Milošević, before he broke with the war criminal — has accused the
current government of hosting pro-Serbian and pro-Russian elements. The
coalition denies these accusations.
Why it
matters: Montenegro has been mired in political instability, most notably last
year when the government collapsed over a controversial agreement with the
Serbian Orthodox Church. Montenegro’s decision to join NATO in 2017 was a
momentous step for the tiny nation — remember when Donald Trump claimed
defending the country could spark World War III?
Seize the
moment: Some are hoping that political change could reinvigorate the country’s
EU membership prospects. “We’re on the cusp of a sea-change in Montenegro after
33 years,” Ivan Vejvoda, a fellow of the Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna,
told Playbook, adding that Sunday’s result could be a harbinger for
parliamentary elections scheduled for June. “This could be an opportunity for
the European Union to seize momentum on the accession process, and show that it
really is serious about enlargement,” he said.
Reminder:
Montenegro was the first Western Balkans country to gain candidate status back
in 2010 and all 33 negotiating chapters have been opened.
AND THAT’S
NOT ALL — BULGARIANS ALSO VOTE ON SUNDAY: Bulgaria’s fifth general election in
two years is unlikely to break the country’s long-running political deadlock,
meaning President Rumen Radev is once again likely to be the main winner. But
what’s his agenda, ask Boryana Dzhambazova and Antoaneta Roussi in this
curtain-raiser: Is Radev an anti-corruption crusader, or a pro-Russian stooge?
SPEAKING OF
THE BALKANS: Writer and academic Lea Ypi was in Brussels last night and shared
her thoughts on the topic of freedom, following her best-selling memoir on
growing up in Albania, “Free,” at a salon at Full Circle, one of the coolest
venues in the city.
Salon
thoughts: Speaking to Playbook, Ypi shared her views on Albania’s long road to
EU membership and the role accession plays in the Western Balkans
consciousness. “Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the EU has become the
ideology of the entire country, an ideological alternative, and a vision of a
future where people’s hopes and expectations, their frustrations about the
present and their projections of the future, are all clustered together,” she
explained.
Expectations
vs. reality: “People don’t actually know the reality — know what’s going on
inside the EU,” said Ypi, who studied at the European University Institute in
Florence for her doctoral work. But she added that in some ways this is good:
“It gives a sense of hope, of dynamic transition, of going somewhere. But on
the other hand, there is no substantive political discussion of the EU itself.
What does the EU want to be, how are we going to engage with the project?”
That’s food for thought — even for the countries within the bloc.
BOOZY LIKE
THURSDAY
CHEEKY
TIPPLE: Italian MEPs, wine lobbyists and curious parliamentary assistants
gathered Thursday at 9 a.m. at a makeshift stand in the bar on the third floor
of the European Parliament, as Italian lawmaker Alessandra Mussolini hosted a
debate on Ireland’s plan to require health warnings on alcohol. (Yup, she’s the
granddaughter of Benito Mussolini.)
Try before
you buy: Visitors were invited to sample a range of Italian wines, including an
alcohol-free white advertised at €16 a bottle and an orange wine from Tuscany
on offer at €81. MEPs drained their glasses before heading off to vote, reports
POLITICO’s own (and I might add abstemious) Daniela De Lorenzo.
Appropriate?
One Danish MEP questioned holding the event during the plenary session — the
Parliament’s main legislative window — but Mussolini, whose Forza Italia party
sits in the EPP bloc, said that was the point: “We wanted this event
specifically now because the plenary brings all lawmakers back to Brussels and
we can maximize attention on the topic,” explained Mussolini.
Background:
Ireland’s plan to slap health warnings on alcohol bottles has prompted uproar
in wine-producing countries like Italy. But the European Commission has already
blessed the proposal, which is now under review at the World Trade
Organization.
Barbar-esco:
The Italians are not giving up the fight: “I am interested in gathering support
to form a common front here in the European Parliament, we have to cling on
anything possible to defeat the measure. It will wound Italian tradition,”
Mussolini said during the event.
Side bar —
was the event even legal? Belgium on Thursday implemented a new alcohol plan
that bans offering free alcoholic drinks within a promotional campaign
alongside non-alcoholic products, Daniela wrote in to flag.
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ROAD TO
2024 EU ELECTION
GREENS
KICK-START CAMPAIGN: The European Green Party will hold its first leadership
council today in Brussels as it sets its sights on the 2024 European Parliament
election campaign. The gathering of the leaders of all European green parties
will give its backing to the Spitzenkandidat process, the “lead candidate”
system for choosing the president of the European Commission. “The
Spitzenkandidaten process is the strongest democratic tool at our disposal to
give EU citizens a direct say in deciding who would be the next European
Commission president,” co-chairs Mélanie Vogel and Thomas Waitz said ahead of
today’s meeting.
Tell that
to Renew: In Thursday’s Playbook, Stéphane Séjourné, the leader of the liberal
Renew Europe group, had a different take: “The Spitzenkandidat has never been
operational,” Séjourné said. “Unfortunately, the last time it was not the
Spitzenkandidat who was appointed to the Commission. So, at some point, we have
to be realistic.”
GETTING IN
GOOD WITH CONSUMERS: It may still be a year away, but MEPs are raising concerns
that a rule which governs the price of long-distance calls may not be extended,
which could lead to huge telephone bills for consumers. In a letter to
Commissioner Thierry Breton seen by POLITICO, almost 30 MEPs urge him to act
now.
Avoid bill
shock: “This law has shown itself to be an extremely important tool to protect
consumers, especially senior citizens, from the extreme charges, which existed
before they were introduced,” the letter states, noting that the measure will
expire in May 2024. The MEPs call on the Commission “as a matter of urgency to
adopt a proposal to extend this limit until at least 14 May 2029 as an interim
measure.”
EP MOVES TO
END THE GENDER PAY GAP: The European Parliament on Thursday approved binding
pay-transparency rules in a bid to tackle the gender salary gap across the EU.
More.
IN OTHER
NEWS
HOLOLEI
LATEST: The EU’s anti-fraud office has opened an investigation into Henrik
Hololei, the EU’s departing transport chief, following POLITICO’s revelations
that he accepted free flights on Qatar Airways. “We can confirm that OLAF has
opened an investigation into the matter,” the agency said in a statement to
POLITICO. The probe, the press office stressed, “does not mean that the
persons/entities involved have committed an irregularity/fraud.” Full story
here.
PUTIN
ESCALATES MEDIA CRACKDOWN: Russian security services detained Evan Gershkovich,
a Wall Street Journal correspondent who has also previously reported for
POLITICO, in Yekaterinburg on suspicion of spying for the U.S., sparking a
stinging rebuke from the White House. Detaining a foreign journalist marks a
significant escalation in hostility toward foreign media from Moscow. More
here.
There ought
to be no hiding place for Putin, argues barrister Aarif Abraham in this
analysis of how the Russian president could be held legally accountable for his
brutal war on Ukraine.
VDL ON
CHINA: In a scathing speech ahead of her visit to China next week, European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Thursday warned Beijing not to side
with Moscow in bringing compromised peace to Ukraine, saying: “How China
continues to interact with Putin’s war will be a determining factor for
EU-China relations going forward.” Stuart Lau has a write-up.
ICYMI — THE
BATTLE TO SAVE TIKTOK: TikTok began working to win over the U.S. and European
governments long before the latest concerns about its Chinese ownership, report
Hailey Fuchs, Clothilde Goujard and Daniel Lippman in this transatlantic
investigation into the company’s years-long lobbying efforts.
KEEPING THE
US IN CHECK: Companies benefitting from the United States’ $369 billion
Inflation Reduction Act may be required to notify their subsidies to the EU’s
antitrust enforcers under new rules, Competition Commissioner Margrethe
Vestager said Thursday. More from Sam Stolton.
DUST OFF
THE TICKER-TAPE: U.S. President Joe Biden will visit Northern Ireland and the
Republic next month, as preparations gear up to mark the 25th anniversary of
the Good Friday peace agreement. The president will spend a day in Belfast, but
will base himself south of the border for most of the trip, visiting the
counties of Louth and Mayo in the west (though he’s not expected to cross the
Channel to visit Brussels or London). More from Shawn Pogatchnik here.
UK JOINS
CPTPP: POLITICO explains what the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for
Trans-Pacific Partnership is (spoiler: it’s about more than trade) — and how
the U.K. got its foot in the door.
COMMITTEE
OF THE ABSURD: In an unusual scenario, even by Brussels’ standards, MEPs on the
Environment, Public Health and Food Safety committee met with Health
Commissioner Stella Kyriakides Thursday for a session dedicated to the general
pharmaceutical legislation. But like Godot in the Samuel Beckett play, everyone’s
still waiting for the proposal, which should have been published Wednesday, but
wasn’t. Carlo Martuscelli has more.
CALL FOR EU
TO BLACKLIST IRANIAN GUARDS: Fifty Nobel laureates called on the EU to
blacklist the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In a joint letter sent to
Council President Charles Michel, they also call on the United Nations to
support a fact-finding mission to Iran to investigate human rights violations
and atrocities perpetrated by the regime. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC) is the main tool of war, repression, terrorism, and warmongering, that
is why the people of Iran want it to be blacklisted by the civilized world,
especially the European Union,” said the letter, seen by Playbook.
WEEKEND
LISTENING: Check out this week’s EU Confidential podcast, where we dissect
Emmanuel Macron’s troubles in Paris and speak to Daniel Calleja Crespo,
director general of the European Commission’s legal service. Bravo to the
animated Spaniard who manages to do the impossible — make the EU’s legal
service sound interesting! And over on Westminster Insider, host Aggie Chambre
explains how to become an MP.
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here.**
AGENDA Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap2
— European
Parliament President Roberta Metsola in The Hague; joint doorstep press point
with Prime Minister Mark Rutte at 9:20 a.m., followed by meeting at 9:30 a.m.;
meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Netherlands at 10:30 a.m.; audience
with King Willem-Alexander at 11:45 a.m.; keynote at the annual Christian
Democratic appeal Schmelzer Lecture at 3 p.m.; meeting with Minister of Foreign
Affairs Wopke Hoekstra at 4:15 p.m. Watch.
—
Commission VP Margrethe Vestager in Washington D.C.; participates in event on
“How Europe is addressing the geopolitical moment and its economic challenges”
organized by the Atlantic Council; meets with Acting Chairperson of the
Competition Commission of India Sangeeta Verma; meets with U.S. Secretary of
the Treasury Janet Yellen.
—
Commissioner Janez Lenarčič in Lebanon, press point at 11:30 a.m. Watch.
— High
Representative Josep Borrell in Spain; participates in “Wake Up, Spain”
economic forum.
— NATO
Deputy Secretary-General NATO Mircea Geoană addresses London Business School 2
p.m. Register for livestream here.
— Spanish
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez continues visit to China.
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