French pension reform: Macron's isolation
revealed by recourse to Article 49.3
NEWS
ANALYSIS
Matthieu
Goar
Fearing that
his bill would be rejected, the French president decided to bypass a high-risk
vote in the Assemblée Nationale on Thursday by using a special provision in the
Constitution.Published on March 17, 2023 at 05h00, updated at 09h56 on March
17, 2023 Time to3 min.
Emmanuel
Macron did not take any chances. Despite being urged since the beginning of the
week by his majority and prime minister not to use this politically explosive
tool, despite warnings from the secretary general of the CFDT labor union
Laurent Berger, who saw it as a "democratic vice," the French
president nevertheless decided to push through his divisive pension reform
using Article 49.3 on Thursday, March 16.
The move
enabled him to avoid a high-risk vote in the Assemblée Nationale. There will of
course be collateral damage for Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who will have
to face one or more motions of no confidence. She may pay the price of the
reform's dented legitimacy and the social repercussions. The Elysée was clearly
worried that the bill text would be rejected, as it advanced through the fog
brought down by about 15 undecided LR members of the Assemblée. But forcing the
reform through is also an admission of weakness and a statement on Macron's
isolation.
This
decision by the Elysée Palace was made in an unfavorable social context. For a
number of weeks, the government and a large part of the majority knew that the
battle of public opinion could never be won. With a very weak government, Borne
and a few ministers defended the increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64
years by praising, first, the need to save the redistributive pay-as-you-go
system, then by highlighting measures of "justice" and
"progress." Without success. The polls showed that a majority of
French people remained strongly opposed to the reform. This opposition was
further strengthened by a rare show of unity from the trade unions, including
the more moderate CFDT union, which organized eight days of mobilization across
France. Against opinion and against the social front, Macron still thought he
could get his reform through the quagmire of the Assemblée Nationale. He tried
to find allies and votes one by one, as if in a long episode of House of Cards.
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