"Hyperinflation Could Lead to Social Unrest"
Bruno
Tertrais
We're still
at the stage in which everyone sees their views and assumptions as being
confirmed by the corona crisis. This is true in the West and East, on the left
and on the right. But the possible consequences of this crisis are already
becoming apparent.
One of them
will be a decline in globalization. Its slowdown had already begun before the
outbreak of the pandemic. For economic reasons, but also for reasons of
security policy, Western countries have long wanted to reduce their dependence
on China. The COVID-19 crisis is now accelerating this trend and economic
interdependence will decrease. In the medium term, "just in time"
production will decrease. Especially in the health care sector, the emphasis
will be on stockpiling.
The
interesting question here is: Will this be solved nationally or in cooperation
with other countries? Will we act nationally and alone in the health-care
sector or together with our European partners?
Another
consequence will be a decline in populism and an increase in souverainism. Once
an end to the acute pandemic is in sight in most countries, people will see
that populist governments were worse crisis managers when compared to others.
The majority of populist leaders, most of all Donald Trump, have so far
demonstrated an astonishing inability to respond to the most pressing concerns
of their citizens and to show at least some degree of empathy.
But there
is one danger to all this: If we do not succeed in achieving an economic
recovery after the crisis, the populists will gain new support. The return of
hyperinflation, for example, could lead to social unrest.
The nation
state, on the other hand, is likely to be one of the big winners of the crisis.
Like the health sector, our food supply will benefit from re-localization.
Nation states will tend to withdraw into themselves and demand increased
protection against external threats. This could come at the expense of Europe's
Schengen system of open borders. Here, too, the question arises: Will this new
sovereignty be national or European?
Will we
also enter an era of digital authoritarianism and sacrifice certain freedoms?
I'm a pessimist. In any case, it is likely that most of the population will be
prepared to accept major restrictions on their freedoms, as they were after
Sept. 11. We will accept more control.
Will some
major powers emerge victorious from this pandemic? I don't think so, at least
not for the next two years. Even if the U.S. no longer has a leading role, no
other power will take over this role either. No country will emerge stronger
from this crisis. In five years' time, of course, things may look different,
but the U.S. will have repositioned itself by then. We're always too quick to
bury Europe. After all, Europe has demonstrated a certain ability to adapt to
crises.
Bruno
Tertrais is deputy director of the foreign policy think tank Fondation pour la
Recherche Stratégique in Paris.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário