UKIP elege segundo deputado e sonha com resultado histórico em 2015. Ukip sets sights higher as ‘party of the people’ after byelection game-changer. / Guardian.

UKIP elege segundo deputado e sonha com resultado histórico em 2015

ANA FONSECA PEREIRA 21/11/2014 - 09:42 (actualizado às 16:12) / PÚBLICO

Partido antieuropeu conquistou círculo de Rochester aos conservadores, um resultado que promete redobrar a pressão sobre o primeiro-ministro, David Cameron.

O Partido da Independência do Reino Unido (UKIP) elegeu o seu segundo deputado no Parlamento britânico, batendo os conservadores por sete pontos percentuais nas eleições intercalares no círculo de Rochester and Strood. A vitória é um sério revés para o primeiro-ministro, David Cameron, e deixa em aberto o resultado que a formação populista poderá conseguir nas legislativas do próximo ano.

“Se o UKIP pode ganhar aqui, pode ganhar em qualquer ponto do país”, afirmou Mark Reckless, o segundo deputado a abandonar em Agosto a bancada dos conservadores para se juntar ao partido de Nigel Farage. A formação, que apesar de ter vencido as eleições europeias de Maio não tinha ainda conseguido franquear as portas do Parlamento britânico, não desperdiçou o impulso e, depois de em Outubro ter vencido em Clacton, no Essex, quinta-feira arrebatou o segundo círculo que os tories consideravam seguro.

Reckless foi reeleito com 42% dos votos e uma vantagem de quase três mil boletins face a Kelly Tolhurst, a candidata conservadora que nos últimos dias de campanha adoptou o tom duro sobre a imigração que o UKIP popularizou. O resultado também não foi auspicioso para os trabalhistas, que dominavam o círculo antes das legislativas de 2010 e agora não foram além dos 17%. Os liberais-democratas, parceiros na coligação liderada por Cameron, registaram o seu pior resultado de sempre (349 votos apenas) e voltaram a ser ultrapassados pelos Verdes.

No discurso de vitória, Reckless afirmou que a sua vitória é um prenúncio de um resultado histórico para o UKIP nas eleições do próximo mês de Maio: “Seja qual for a vossa circunscrição, seja qual for a vossa filiação partidária, pensem no que será ter uma bancada de deputados do UKIP em Westminster grande o suficiente para deter o equilíbrio do poder.”  

Farage não definiu ainda qual o seu objectivo para as legislativas, mas há muito que não esconde o desejo de vir a ser o fiel da balança num Parlamento em que nem conservadores nem trabalhistas tenham maioria absoluta – e quanto mais o UKIP cresce, menor é a hipótese de Londres voltar a ter um governo de um só partido, tradição que o sistema eleitoral (círculos uninominais com eleição por maior simples) até agora favorecia.

Depois destas intercalares, o desfecho das legislativas do próximo ano tornou-se “para lá de imprevisível”, disse Farage numa entrevista à BBC Radio 4, explicando que Rochester ocupava o 271.º lugar na lista de círculos onde o partido acredita ter mais hipóteses de conquistar. “Está tudo em aberto”, sublinhou. A eurodeputada Diane James disse ao Financial Times que, depois de Rochester, o partido está confiante em eleger pelo menos 20 deputados. “Seria a cereja no topo do bolo.”

A liderança dos tories admitiu estar desiludida com a derrota, mas David Cameron disse estar “absolutamente determinado” a reconquistar o círculo nas legislativas, quando a participação eleitoral é habitualmente superior aos 50,6% registados na votação de quinta-feira. “O resultado foi mais renhido do que as sondagens previam”, afirmou o primeiro-ministro, insistindo no argumento de que só um voto nos conservadores impedirá o regresso dos trabalhistas ao Governo em 2015.

Os tories acreditam que a margem relativamente estreita da vitória de Reckless poderá dissuadir outros deputados de desertar – apesar de o deputado ter dito no dia da votação que dois antigos colegas de partido estavam a ponderar seguir-lhe o exemplo. E Cameron obtém algum alívio por ver que o Labour não está a aproveitar as intercalares para ganhar votos nos círculos que precisa de reconquistar para vencer as legislativas do próximo ano.

Mas Cameron, que se empenhou pessoalmente na campanha, visitando por cinco vezes o círculo, não sai incólume desta derrota. Com a subida dos populistas nas intenções de voto, o seu lugar na liderança dos conservadores não está a salvo de eventuais rebeliões. E a ala mais à direita do partido vai aumentar a pressão para que endureça a sua posição face à União Europeia, com a tónica na questão da imigração. O primeiro-ministro prometeu para as próximas semanas um discurso em que apresentará as suas propostas para limitar as entradas de cidadãos oriundos de outros países da UE, mas é estreita a sua margem de manobra para o fazer sem violar o princípio da livre circulação.

Ukip sets sights higher as ‘party of the people’ after byelection game-changer

After the Tories were humbled and Labour scored an own goal, Nigel Farage is targeting seats in Wales and the north

Toby Helm and Ashley Cowburn

The Observer, Sunday 23 November 2014 / http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/23/ukip-rochester-byelection-success-game-changer

Ukip leader Nigel Farage predicted on Saturday that his party would hit Labour just as hard as the Tories at next year’s general election, as the fallout continued from Thursday’s Rochester and Strood byelection.

After the anti-EU party installed its second MP, Mark Reckless, at Westminster, taking the Kent seat from the Tories with a majority of just under 3,000, Farage said the political weather had changed for good and it was now clear that Ukip was taking votes from Ed Miliband’s party as well as the Conservatives – and in huge numbers.

While the Rochester and Strood result was a severe blow to the Tories, who were facing their own internal recriminations over their campaign strategy, some of the heat was taken off them by the tumultuous row that erupted after Emily Thornberry was forced to resign from the shadow cabinet by the Labour leader, having tweeted a picture of a house in Strood draped in England flags with a white van parked outside.

Miliband, furious that the tweet appeared to be an insult against working-class voters delivered by a Labour MP from a well-heeled part of the capital, ordered her to resign after the Islington South and Finsbury MP at first insisted she had done nothing wrong.

As Labour MPs expressed despair at the damage done to their general election chances by a row of their own making, Farage moved fast to exploit the furore, saying Ukip was now well placed to make strides across large swaths not just of Tory Kent and the south-east, but also traditional Labour regions, including the north of England and Wales.

“Rochester and Strood proved that Ukip is the only party willing to stand up for the working men and women of this country,” he declared. “I heard it all over the constituency, from thousands of people in the streets and on the doorsteps. Not only is it evident that people have fallen out of love with Labour, but that Labour has fallen out of love with the British people. They simply don’t care, and even resent all things British.

“So up and down the country Ukip can do as well with Labour voters as with former Tories. That’s because we have common sense and people power as core values, while the other parties cling on to old-fashioned political allegiances.”

Addressing a meeting of the Thatcherite Bruges Group, Reckless said it was now “incredibly unlikely” that David Cameron would win a majority at the general election and probable that he would need Ukip MPs to deliver an in-out referendum on EU membership.

“I think it is something of a conceit, that I understand the Conservative leadership has to maintain, but I am not sure that necessarily all Conservative backbench MPs need to, that somehow it is a realistic prospect that the Conservative party under David Cameron is going to get an overall majority at the next election,” Reckless said.

As it hopes for more defections, Ukip’s strategy is now twin or even triple-pronged, aimed at Tory, Labour and even traditional Lib Dem voters. Farage believes much of Kent, where Ukip is pouring in huge resources, could soon fall to his party. It is also setting its sights on Labour areas of Wales and the north, and on Lib Dem strongholds in the west, where the Eurosceptic vote is traditionally strong. A month ago Ukip believed a tally of 10 or 12 Westminster seats was possible. Now it is looking at double that.

The prospect of Ukip spreading through Kent, into seats no one ever believed would be lost by the Tories, was greeted with anxiety, underpinned by a sense of the inevitable, by voters.

Zoe Benbill, 21, a waitress at Loch Fyne restaurant in Tory Sevenoaks, said: “I don’t agree with them – mainly on immigration. But, shockingly, I think Farage will gain momentum in Sevenoaks. Only four years ago we had something ridiculous like 1,000 BNP members. Although it is a Tory safe seat, ridiculously white around here and very, very rightwing, I think Farage might stand a chance.”

Stephen Axten, 36, a medical consultant who has lived in the Sevenoaks area for 15 years, was uneasy. “I have a pretty low opinion of Ukip,” he said. “They’re trying to divide our country with negative politics. But I fear they might make gains around here. I just hope they don’t.”

Elizabeth Wrighton, a 67-year-old retired teacher who has lived in Sevenoaks for more than 20 years, sounded shocked at even the prospect of Ukip gaining momentum in the area: “No, no, no, no! Ukip will not make any gains in Sevenoaks. We are a very, very strong Tory seat.”

Tory optimism that it could hold back the purple party was, however, a hallmark of the early part of the campaign in Rochester and Strood. It then gave way gradually to a realisation that Ukip had irresistible momentum. The Tories swung from insisting they would win the seat when Reckless defected on the eve of the Tory party conference, to accepting they would lose it and then – having lost it – to declaring in the words of chief whip Michael Gove, on Friday, that the result was “significantly better than expected”.

This weekend it may be Labour that is in the centre of an immediate storm, but the Conservatives and Lib Dems have reason to be worried too. The Lib Dems suffered their worst ever byelection result and the Tories have yet to find a strategy to counter Ukip. Many Tories want their party to stop trying to match Ukip rhetoric on immigration, and put more stress on the benefits of Conservative economic management.

Former immigration minister Damian Green, on theguardian.com, warns the Tory leadership against trying to ape Ukip in the runup to the general election, while denouncing the party at the same time. “In particular, in the wake of Rochester and Strood, there is no reason for the Conservative party to decide that slithering towards Ukip is the route to success.

“Ukip’s underlying appeal is that they are the anti-establishment vehicle for this parliament. It is a position of luxury formerly enjoyed by the Liberal Democrats, when a party has no responsibility to be consistent or practical, but merely needs to be populist and simple in its explanations. This is not a stance open to a party that is already in government, and aspires to be a majority government next May.” As Ukip expands its ambitions none of their opponents has yet found a way to hold them back.”

HOW THE TORIES CHANGED THEIR MESSAGE

David Cameron: “I will be with you in Rochester campaigning with you. I am absolutely determined that we will take this seat.” – 28 September

Senior Tory MP: “If we lose Rochester, Cameron is in trouble.” - 14 October

Tory minister tells the Financial Times that the leadership “had to win” the byelection. “Losing is not an option,” the minister says. - 14 October

Tory cabinet source: “We have no reason to think the polls are not true. They have a 12- or 13-point Ukip lead. If we squeeze it to single digits, great.” – 15 November

Eurosceptic Tory: “We will lose on Thursday but will win back Rochester and Strood in the general election – unlike Clacton, which is lost for some time.” - 18 November

David Cameron: “The result was closer than the pollsters had predicted. I am absolutely determined to win this seat back at the next general election because anything other than a Conservative government will put our recovery at risk and Ed Miliband in Downing Street.” - 21 November