Costa’s
honeymoon as European Council chief will be short-lived
The former
Portuguese prime minister faces a difficult job in bridging EU disagreements
while France and Germany remain distracted by domestic concerns.
December 18,
2024 4:01 am CET
By Barbara
Moens, Clea Caulcutt and Tim Ross
BRUSSELS —
António Costa helms his first summit of the EU’s 27 leaders this week knowing
his stock will never be this high again.
A rude
awakening awaits almost immediately. He’ll have to navigate Europe’s response
to Donald Trump’s return to the White House and years-long divisions over
Russia and Ukraine — all while France and Germany, traditionally the engine
that pushed European decision-making forward, are distracted and
paralyzed.
“Leaders are
starting to realize that we will have to make decisions that are inevitable,
but also very uncomfortable,” one EU official said, granted anonymity to speak
freely, like others in this story. “The info on Trump’s plans is dripping into
several capitals.”
Costa, the
63-year-old former Portuguese prime minister, landed the job of president of
the European Council following this summer’s European election thanks to his
reputation for forging compromises away from the spotlight. That implied
competence contrasts sharply with the failure of Costa’s predecessor, Charles
Michel, to win respect from leaders who complained he didn’t even prepare
meetings properly.
But while
Costa chairs summits and looks to broker deals among leaders who may have
incompatible priorities, he can only advance the EU’s agenda so far without the
support of powerful national champions.
That’s why
the faltering Franco-German dynamo is a problem. Paris is in political crisis,
leaving President Emmanuel Macron weakened on his visits to Brussels. Berlin,
too, is distracted by an upcoming early election — and given that Germany is
Europe’s largest economy and still largely its paymaster, the bloc can’t decide
anything money-related until a new government is in the saddle.
Meanwhile,
Hungary’s Russia-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Orbán remains an obstacle to
most decisions in support of Kyiv.
On Thursday,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will discuss the state of Russia’s war
on his country with European leaders, and is likely to plead yet again for more
military and financial support.
“The
situation in Ukraine will be at the forefront of our discussions,” Costa said
in his letter to European leaders ahead of the summit.
Strategic
discussions
Costa has
already made his mark by changing some of the tortuous Brussels choreography.
Not only has he shortened summits from two days to one — delighting European
leaders and their envoys — but there is also more clarity on the agenda and the
expected conclusions.
That allows
leaders to conduct strategic discussions instead of focusing on long drafting
sessions.
But Costa’s
honeymoon could end quickly, one EU diplomat said.
As the
second Trump presidency draws nigh, European leaders are keenly aware they must
step up their military and financial support for Kyiv — but disagree on how to
get there.
Despite the
goodwill surrounding Costa and the imminent possible cratering of U.S. support
for Ukraine, Brussels doesn’t appear poised to make concrete promises to Kyiv
this week.
European
leaders don’t want to anticipate what the new U.S. administration will decide
on the matter, one senior EU official said.
“What can
Europe do more if needed, autonomously, to support Ukraine?” will be one of the
questions in focus, according to the official. “Hopefully this will be one of
the questions answered with the meeting of the 27, certainly the beginning of
an answer to that question.”
A next step
will be an informal retreat of European leaders in early February, shortly
after Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration.
Given the
situation, some diplomats are quipping that Costa’s honeymoon period may end on
Thursday, when leaders discuss the transatlantic relationship over lunch.
“We can
already see the change with Costa, he has a whole series of methods which make
him a guardian of unity rather than a political force,” another EU diplomat
said.
But they
also cautioned against immoderate expectations, citing the example of former
European Council President Donald Tusk, now prime minister of Poland.
Even Tusk —
“a huge personality” widely respected for the job he did between 2014 and 2019
— “didn’t leave a lasting legacy,” the diplomat said.
Clea
Caulcutt reported from Paris.
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