At last, a figure has emerged who could wrench power from Viktor Orbán in Hungary

 

At last, a figure has emerged who could wrench power from Viktor Orbán in Hungary

Viktória Serdült

The regime is doing all it can to damage the credibility of Péter Magyar – but the young challenger’s popularity keeps rising

 

Wed 18 Dec 2024 07.00 GMT

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/18/viktor-orban-hungary-peter-magyar

 

Hungarian politics can sometimes seem like a soap opera that is stuck with the same characters and has run on too long. You have the occasional scandals – such as a prominent government MEP escaping a Brussels orgy down a drainpipe – but other than that, nothing ever seems to change. Here, you can start primary education, graduate high school and start university, and Viktor Orbán will still be prime minister.

 

But that script is about to get a major rewrite, as Orbán’s 14-year reign is now being challenged by Péter Magyar, the ex-husband of Orbán’s former justice minister Judit Varga. Magyar’s recently formed Tisza party currently has a double-digit lead over Fidesz in the latest opinion polls. General elections are due in the spring of 2026, and Fidesz is panicking.

 

Magyar was once a powerful Fidesz insider in his own right. But after Fidesz sacrificed Varga – having her resign over a decision to pardon a well connected person implicated in a child sexual abuse scandal – Magyar stepped into the limelight and openly criticised Orbán’s spin doctors and the moral nihilism of his system. In a public Facebook post, he insisted the current state of Hungary was only a political product, “a sugar-coating that serves only two purposes: to cover up the workings of the power factory and the acquiring of massive wealth”.

 

A few weeks later, he was referred to on social media and on placards at mass demonstrations as Lisan al Gaib, the messiah of the Fremen in the film Dune II, which had just been released. Many Hungarians are fed up with the corruption and nepotism after 14 years of Fidesz rule, as well as the powerless opposition. The outspoken young insider seemed like the person who could finally bring about change.

 

To formalise his role, Magyar took over the leadership of Tisza, a political micro-party founded in 2021. In June 2024, the party won seven seats in the European parliament and was invited to join its largest group, the European People’s party. Since then, Tisza’s popularity has grown exponentially. First, it swallowed up most of the opposition voters of its liberal, green and leftwing rivals, who are willing to compromise on issues such as Magyar’s past affiliation with Fidesz. Then its strong anti-corruption messages began to resonate with conservative rural voters.

 

Magyar is dynamic, sporty and stylish. His communication is a mixture of theatrical, absurd, arrogant and witty. He is not afraid to call Orbán “the Al Capone of the Carpathians”, walk out of TV studios when he does not like questions, and taunt government ministers in Facebook comments. When Tamás Menczer, the state secretary and communication director of Fidesz, aggressively shouted at him in front of cameras, Magyar suggested he brush his teeth because he had bad breath. Critics describe him as a testosterone-pumped clown, or a mini Trump, but he is undeniably talented.

 

At first, Orbán was in denial: for months, he didn’t even mention Magyar in public. Then he set the power machine in motion. The government-controlled media launched a smear campaign. And a criminal case was opened against Magyar – as part of which there has been a request to remove the immunity granted to him as an MEP – over an incident in which he allegedly grabbed a phone from a man filming him at a Budapest nightclub. None of this appears to have scratched the reputation of the opposition leader, who seems to be Teflon coated. Orbán has reportedly started a diet and workout regime in order to match his opponent’s photogenic appearance.

 

But Orbán has bigger problems than extra pounds and ill-fitting suits. Hungary’s small and open economy is vulnerable to external shocks and has been stagnating for two years. Its inflation rate is one of the highest in the EU and the national currency is weak. The unstable geopolitical situation and the incoming Trump administration are likely to exacerbate Hungary’s crisis through trade tariffs and increased defence spending. The excessive budget deficit has already led to disciplinary measures by the EU, which also holds back funding over rule-of-law concerns. At the same time, the government will be under pressure to increase social payment schemes one year before the elections. The only possible solution is to increase public debt to be repaid by the next government. Propaganda alone will not be enough to hide the economic woes, and this spells trouble for Orbán.

 

For those in power, the stakes in the next elections are incredibly high. If Tisza wins, the beneficiaries of Hungary’s so-called semi-authoritarian kleptocracy will not only lose their offices and businesses, they could also face criminal charges. Orbán has captured many of the state’s formerly independent institutions, but it’s unclear how far they will go to maintain the current political regime. The 2011 constitution cements key political choices, such as the chief prosecutor and members of the constitutional court, tying the hands of future governments. The ruling party has already secured billions of euros in so-called public interest trusts controlled by trustees loyal to Orbán. The prime minister has also placed his people at the top of key institutions for unusually long terms. The Polish example shows it is almost impossible to remove obstacles to the proper rule of law while bound by the reforms imposed by the previous administration.

 

One possible scenario is that Magyar and Tisza win the 2026 elections but are ultimately crippled by the public debt and the checks and balances of the “independent” institutions run by Orbán’s allies. Magyar said the most important measure would be to bring back EU funding withheld under Orbán’s tenure, and to introduce ironclad anti-corruption rules. He has also promised term limits for the prime minister, and the return of independent ministries of rural development, education and health. His package has proved popular with voters so far, but there are still one and a half years in opposition ahead.

 

Viktória Serdült is a journalist and editor of Hungarian newspaper HVG