Explainer
Post-Brexit trade deals: what’s been agreed and
what could still come?
After talks with Canada hit a halt alongside those
with US and India, the UK has limited Pacific agreements to show for Brexit
UK suspends trade talks with Canada
Jack
Simpson
@JSimpsonjourno
Fri 26 Jan
2024 18.10 GMT
Negotiations
over a trade deal between the UK and Canada have been halted after
disagreements on beef and cheese tariffs.
The ability
for the UK to secure its own global free trade deals was sold as one major
benefit from the UK’s decision to leave the EU but progress has been mixed.
Here we look at what agreements have been struck so far and with whom, and
which other important economies are still at the negotiating table and why.
Trade deals agreed so far
Japan When
in late 2020 the then international secretary, Liz Truss, signed the UK’s first
major post-Brexit free trade agreement, she said that when it came into force
the next year it would boost trade between the two countries by billions of
pounds annually.
However,
exports to Japan have not quite received the turbo charge promised, falling to
£11.9bn in the year to June 2022, from £12.3bn the year before. This included a
4.9% fall in export for goods, to £6.1bn, while services fell 2%, to £5.8bn.
Australia
The deal in December 2021 was almost entirely focused on goods, with tariffs
being eliminated on exports from both countries for a 15-year period. The
government said it would unlock £10.4bn of additional trade with the country by
the 2030s while ending tariffs on all UK exports.
Others were
not so positive, with UK farmers angry that Australia had been given full
access to sell beef and sheep meat in the UK while there was a ban on beef
going the other way. A year later, George Eustice, the former environment
minister who was part of the negotiations, said it “was not actually a very
good deal for Britain” and “gave away far too much for far too little in
return”.
New Zealand
This February 2022 deal largely mirrored the Australian one, with similar
concerns from UK meat farmers about being undercut by cheaper imports. Tariffs
of up to 10% on products were removed from most products, while visa
restrictions for travel and residency were eased.
The
government estimated that this would add £800m a year to the UK economy by the
mid-2030s but the overall impact was negligible, representing just a 0.03%
boost to GDP by 2035. The Australian and New Zealand trade deals came into
effect in last May.
The
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership While
technically not a new trade deal, the UK’s joining of the CPTPP means a range
of export products can be traded tariff-free with the member nations, which
include Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Canada and Mexico but not the US. The deal,
agreed last March, also means countries must adhere to certain unified
regulations, such as food standards.
However,
the CPTPP arrangements can be overridden by individual trade deals with
specific countries, which is why the UK is still trying to secure direct deals
with member states such as Canada. Analysis has found that exporting to
countries in the CPTPP accounted for 8% of UK exports in 2019, less than the
UK’s total trade with Germany.
The deals still not struck
The US
Negotiations began in May 2020 and nearly four years later there is no prospect
of an agreement any time soon. Last month Joe Biden signalled he had shelved
plans for a deal until at least after this November’s US presidential election.
India When
negotiations began between India and the UK at the start of 2022, it was hoped
that by as early as that October there would be a deal reducing tariffs on
exports such as cars and Scottish whisky and providing better access to the
world’s fifth biggest economy. However, we are still waiting, with experts
saying any pact is unlikely before the Indian national elections this spring.
Others As
well as Canada, talks are continuing with other nations including Israel,
Mexico and South Korea. The UK began negotiating with the Gulf Cooperation
Council, which includes Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in July 2022. Experts
have predicted that a deal with Switzerland, which is the sixth biggest market
for the UK to export services to, could be the next reached.
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