EU threatens to silence Hungary if it blocks
Ukrainian funds
Leaders may consider invoking the “nuclear option” of
kicking Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán out of the EU voting process.
Five European officials and diplomats said other
countries in the bloc are ready to push to make a move against Budapest |
JANUARY 26,
2024 4:00 AM CET
BY BARBARA
MOENS, JACOPO BARIGAZZI, CLEA CAULCUTT AND EDDY WAX
BRUSSELS —
There’s a Hungarian saying for when things are not going well: “It is under the
frog’s ass.”
And things
sure won’t go well for Hungary if it attempts to thwart European leaders when
they meet next week to approve a vital €50 billion lifeline to Ukraine as it
enters a third year of war with Russia.
After years
of a softly-softly approach with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, this
time European diplomats are giving signals that the “nuclear option” — kicking
Budapest out of the EU voting process — is no longer unthinkable if he imperils
the security of Ukraine, an EU candidate country.
If the EU
were to use its so-called Article 7 — the most serious political sanction on a
member country that involves suspending its right to vote on EU decisions —
Orb´án really would be well and truly under the frog’s ass.
“That
[saying] pretty much sums up where the
trust between Orbán and other leaders is,” said an EU official who, like others
quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak about corroding internal
dynamics.
Five
European officials and diplomats said other countries in the bloc are ready to
make a move against Budapest in what would be a historic move for leaders who
rely on cohesion and unanimity.
“If Orbán
really blocks again an agreement [on the budget and the €50 billion for
Ukraine] at the February summit, using Article 7 to strip Hungary of its voting
rights could become a real option,” said one EU diplomat.
Next week’s
vote on aid to Ukraine is essential both for Ukraine and the EU’s messaging to
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine has the unanimous backing of
Western allies. In December, Orbán blocked the EU’s effort to send aid to
Ukraine, in a mark of support to Putin. Orbán said then he would be willing to
unblock his veto only if the EU unblocked its own frozen aid to Hungary for its
rule-of-law violations.
European
leaders are also keen to show continued support as Washington struggles to
agree on its own financial injections to Kyiv.
The
Pentagon announced Tuesday that Ukraine’s frontline soldiers are running out of
ammunition without continued U.S. support. And with the potential comeback of
former — and current Republican candidate — U.S. President Donald Trump’s
pro-Kremlin agenda, there is a sense of urgency among Europe’s leaders.
For years,
the European Union has attempted to keep Hungary’s democratic backsliding in
line, withholding aid as the country slid away from the bloc’s liberal values.
In return, Orbán used tactical vetoes on a wide range of European files to
wrangle more money in years past.
“It’s clear
that heads of state and government are fed up with Orbán,” said Steven Van
Hecke, a European politics professor at KU Leuven. “It’s time for Orbán to
realize that the threat of Article 7 now exists.”
And there
is little patience for uncertainty.
Leaders
have been pulled into a game by Orbán, one EU diplomat said. “Now we are losing
a bit. We are again getting into this game of what does he want? Why should we
worry about saving anyone’s face?” the diplomat continued. “We should be a bit
more forceful.”
Some
Central and Eastern European countries are fearful of invoking Article 7,
several diplomats said, because they worry they could face similar scrutiny
over rule of law issues at home in the future.
Slovak
Prime Minister Robert Fico especially is a wild card, as it remains unclear
whether his ultimate loyalty will be with Orbán or with the rest of the bloc.
There is
also a risk of a backlash in Hungary itself. Suspending Hungary’s voting rights
would “alienate Hungary even more from the European Union,” said Péter Krekó,
director of the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute.
In a
parliamentary debate last week, Hungarian MEP Bal´ázs Hidvéghi from Orbán’s
party scoffed at the thought, saying: “You’re digging the grave of the European
Union this way. Wake up and turn back from this crazy path.”
The French strategy
Up until
the special summit of leaders next Thursday, EU leaders and the European
Commission are trying to pull Orbán back into the fold, rather than alienating
him further with the threat of Article 7.
Orbán has
become increasingly isolated in recent months as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia
Meloni veered towards centrist views on Russia and Ukrainian aid, even as she
leads Italy’s most right-wing government since Benito Mussolini. In the
Netherlands, while Geert Wilders’ far-right party won recent elections, it’s
still unclear he will join EU leaders around the table as prime minister. And
in recent elections in Poland, Orbán lost his closest political ally as the
country’s nationalist government was defeated by a pro-European opposition.
France, for
example, wants to rebuild trust with Hungary.
In recent
weeks, French government officials have held back from publicly criticizing
Orbán and his blackmailing tactics.
In
December, French President Emmanuel Macron invited Orbán to Paris for a private
dinner in an attempt to charm the strongman from Budapest. According to several
French diplomats, officials discreetly visited Budapest in the last couple of
weeks in an attempt to improve relations.
“There’s a
real French offensive to resolve the Orbán problem,” said a former French
diplomat with knowledge of European affairs, adding: “But the big question is
whether Orbán’s position is one of principle or whether he is ready to
negotiate.”
Far right ambitions
The EU has
wrestled with Hungary’s erosion of democratic values for years: diminishing
media freedom, attacks on LGBTQ+ rights, and the lack of an independent
judicial system.
Europe
risks losing the larger battle with the Hungarian leader as he normalizes his
own drift to the far right, taking some leaders, and some of its mainstream
political ideology, along with him, say EU diplomats and officials.
Much of
Orbán’s ideology, including his anti-immigrant policies, has made its way into
mainstream politics. While much of his anti-immigrant rhetoric was lambasted by
EU leaders a decade ago, it is now reflected in the bloc’s “historic” migration
pact, signaling a shift to the right with stricter deportation rules and
procedures for rejected asylum seekers.
On Ukraine,
the Euroskeptic and pro-Russian Orbán said from the start of the war that Kyiv
and Moscow should work on a mediated solution. With Ukraine’s failed
counteroffensive and no sign of a clear Ukrainian victory nearly two years in,
there’s a growing sense of Ukraine fatigue within the bloc.
When he won
a fourth term as prime minister in 2022, Orban noted Hungary was “our common
European future.”
“Orbán is
working on an internal revolution,” said another EU official. One of the EU
officials quoted above pointed out how Hungary has stepped up its English
communications game, appealing to conservative right voters across the bloc.
In line
with Orbán, other far-right leaders like France’s Marine Le Pen and the
Netherlands’ Wilders have dropped their talking points on leaving the EU. Just
like Orbán, they are focused on changing the block from within.
The
Hungarian prime minister’s influence on European policy is likely to accelerate
after the European Parliament elections in June, when right and far -right
groups are expected to surge in popularity, bringing him closer to the center
of power. The far-right and right-wing groupings in the European Parliament are
set to gain seats and (power) in the election.
“Hungary
has never had an alternative, never had an option to quit the EU,” said Judit
Varga, an Orbán ally and MP tipped to lead his Fidesz party’s list at the EU
election in June. “And we will be the last member state to hold the last pillar
when the whole thing collapses.”
Nicholas
Vinocur and Jakob Hanke Vela contributed reporting.
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