Playbook PM: New king of Scotland — No, Jeremy
Corbyn — Small boats, big problems
BY EMILIO
CASALICCHIO
MARCH 27,
2023 5:56 PM CET
London
Playbook
By EMILIO
CASALICCHIO
Good
afternoon.
MONDAY
CHEAT SHEET
— Humza
Yousaf wins the SNP leadership race … is it good news for Labour?
— Keir
Starmer gets ready to deliver on his pledge to stop Jeremy Corbyn running for
Labour.
—
Conservative small boats bill rebels wait to hear if their negotiations with
ministers bore fruit.
— Members
of the public tell Rishi Sunak they want police to solve real crimes rather
than get worried about laughing gas.
— But
Labour is getting attacked from its own side after going along with the gas
ban.
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TOP OF THE
NEWSLIST
NEW KING OF
SCOTLAND: Labour is hoping the election of Humza Yousaf as SNP leader and
incoming Scottish first minister will boost their chances.
The
results: Yousaf won with 52.1 percent of the vote in the second round of
counting, versus Kate Forbes who clinched 47.9 percent and Ash Regan who was
eliminated in the first round after securing just 11.1 percent. The new SNP
boss said he was the “luckiest man in the world” to win the leadership and
pledged to put the drive for independence into “fifth gear.”
But but
but: It was clear Labour smelled an opening as soon as Nicola Sturgeon threw in
the towel, and it’s sounding no less bullish now. “The SNP do not have the
answers on the NHS or on the cost of living crisis,” Keir Starmer said in a
tweet after the result was announced. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said
Yousaf had “inherited the SNP’s woeful record, but he has not inherited Nicola
Sturgeon’s mandate.”
The plan:
Labour is hoping to capitalize on the narrative that Yousaf did a dismal job of
running the health and justice departments, as well as during his stint in
transport. One senior Labour MP likened him to a former Westminster Cabinet
minister who got a reputation for ruining whatever he touched. “The Chris
Grayling of Scottish politics has just failed upwards to the top job,” the
person told Playbook PM.
Shrug
emoji: The truth is that it’s too soon to tell what the result will mean for
electoral politics in Scotland. Deltapoll’s Joe Twyman said it was “not
possible to say, with any real evidence, that Humza would have been better or
worse,” than the other two candidates.
Worth a
look: Labour man (and former Better Together campaign chief) Blair McDougal has
written a Substack on what can be learned from the result … from an anti-SNP
perspective, of course. His point on the vote for Forbes is quite something,
though: “Almost half of SNP members looked at a politician who is against gay
marriage, a woman’s right to choose, feminism, and having children outside of
marriage, and they thought that politician best represented their view of
Scotland’s future.”
And for the
Tories: “With Humza at the helm of this SNP government, Scotland faces years
more division and distraction,” the Scottish Conservatives said.
Meanwhile,
closer to home: Some in the SNP were surprised at how close the result was in
the end, but after a fractious leadership contest during which the nationalists
tore each other to shreds, even Yousaf critics are eager to make friends again
and move on. “Humza has a lot of work to do to bring the party together, and
deliver competent government that people want to see,” one senior SNP MSP told
Playbook PM. “He’ll need to reach out and use all the talent available to put
the best team together. If he can show progress on public service delivery and
the economy then SNP can see off challenge from Labour.”
Fighting
talk: An SNP official said the movement “must now move on from the fractious
atmosphere and unite behind Humza’s positive, radical vision for Scotland,”
adding: “As Labour continuously throws Scotland under the Brexit bus and
Starmer cloaks his tired, wooden centrism in the Union flag, Humza should be
able to retain and build on the SNP support.”
Now read
this: “Good luck to Humza Yousaf — Scotland’s next first minister is going to
need it,” my ace POLITICO colleague and Scottish politics-knower Andrew
McDonald writes in a piece looking at what the result means.
The nice
news is: Yousaf happens to be the first Muslim to be elected as a national
leader in a Western democracy, according to the British Future think tank.
NO, JEREMY
CORBYN
NO JEREMY
CORBYN: Almost 3 years to the day since he was replaced as leader, Jeremy
Corbyn will be blocked from standing as a Labour candidate tomorrow — by Keir
Starmer personally, writes Playbook’s Dan Bloom.
But but
but: Corbyn says Starmer has “denigrated the democratic foundations of our
Party” while his backers in Momentum call it Starmer’s “venal and duplicitous
act” — more here.
High noon:
Starmer will host a shadow cabinet meeting at Labour’s shiny new Blackfriars HQ
on Tuesday morning, followed by the all-important National Executive Committee
meeting at noon. There he will table a motion saying Corbyn “will not be
endorsed by the NEC,” otherwise Labour’s standing would be “significantly
diminished.” As the Times’ Henry Zeffman notes, Starmer’s motion does not
actually mention Corbyn’s antisemitism remarks. An NEC member says Corbyn’s
natural supporters are outnumbered more than two to one so the motion is set to
pass.
What’s next
I: Corbyn’s spokesman still isn’t confirming if he’ll stand as an independent —
either in Islington North or (some whisper) for mayor of London. Going indie
would raise a question mark over the status of Labour members who declared
support for him — or as one long-time Corbyn critic tells Dan: “It will have a
positive purgative effect.”
What’s next
II: Three party organisers Dan spoke to raised the possibility of Corbyn
attempting some sort of legal challenge — and suggested that’s what today’s
move is about. “We need to do things by the book if he does,” says one. “People
have gamed it out” and think the process could be challenged — but not injuncted
by the courts, says another.
What’s next
III: Two NEC members tell Dan they believe Corbyn could technically still apply
to be the candidate, but would not be long-listed by an NEC panel. He would
even be deprived an interview, one added.
Get on with
it! Today’s decision brings forward a fight that had been expected just after
the May local elections. Corbyn would likely have been blocked at the point
candidates were long-listed by a panel of the NEC, several Labour figures tell
Dan. Some originally suggested doing it much later, but Keir Starmer no longer
had a benefit to leaving it late after he said Corbyn would not be a Labour
candidate. Several people told Dan in recent weeks that the party had to “get
it over with.”
Glee: Many
Corbyn critics seem unbothered about him standing as an independent, even if he
wins. “It’s so long, farewell. Auf Weidersehen, goodbye,” a senior Labour MP
tells Dan. Says another: “What it says to the country is that Jeremy Corbyn no
longer represents the Labour Party, and that’s worth its weight in gold in my
book.” A third senior Labour figure accepted people will vote for Corbyn
“because they feel sorry for the old man” but claimed many local members will
end up staying. “Do you want to be a martyr for yesterday’s man?”
Who will
stand for Labour? That is still some mystery. Potentials have been quietly
gauging support locally but not broken cover, with some fearing the toxicity of
the race. Former Wakefield MP Mary Creagh did look at standing in Islington
North but is now thought to be looking elsewhere.
SMALL
BOATS, BIG PROBLEMS
CASTING
OFF: The committee stage debate on the small boats bill has just kicked off in
the Commons, after hours of back and forth between the government and
Conservative rebels over amendments.
Rebellion
1: The right-wing rebellion aimed at toughening up the bill — including its
references to the European Court of Human Rights — could give the government a
get-out at this stage depending on the wording of the opening statement from
Home Secretary Suella Braverman.
The
details: Rebels want Braverman to indicate that the government will bring
forward tweaks implementing their four proposed changes at a later stage,
telling the Commons the government “has listened” and will act — rather than insisting
the government continues to listen and engage.
Not-at-all-veiled-threat:
“Talk of a deal being done are overblown,” a spokesman for the rebels told
Playbook PM. “The prime minister is the one who made the promise to stop the
boats by Christmas, and these measures take six months to have an impact. The government
will either fix this at report stage or the prime minister will be taking up a
position as emeritus professor of government at Stanford University.” Ouch.
And on
legal routes: Playbook PM hears Tim Loughton and co. are still negotiating with
ministers on their amendment to bring forward more legal routes for migrants
sooner than the government wants to.
The line to
take this morning: On the broadcast round, Home Office Minister Chris Philp
kept to the government line that “we should fix the illegal immigration problem
first … and then we can add in these additional safe and legal routes.” A
spokesman for Rishi Sunak said the same, although he insisted the government
will listen and talk to MPs.
Watch this
space: No doubt talks will continue behind the scenes throughout the debate and
before the amendment votes.
In the
meantime: The Council of Europe — a non-EU body tasked with monitoring and
upholding human rights on the Continent that counts Britain among its founding
members — launched a blast at the Illegal Migration Bill this morning. POLITICO
has a writeup here.
Latest
figures: Some 87 migrants were detected crossing the channel in two boats last
week, all on Sunday.
And on the
other side of the House: Labour might be pleased to see the government tear
itself apart about small boats, but all is not at peace within opposition ranks
over the topic either. One shadow minister told Playbook PM the small boats
crisis was one of a number of things the party is being too cautious about.
Losing narrative:
“Because the Tories have gone full firehose on this, the assumption is that the
Tories want to stop the boats and Labour doesn’t,” the person said. “Labour is
too scared of talking about immigration. So we’re just giving the government
the space to push their message.”
It’s not
just migration: The same person said Labour had been too hesitant about its
childcare plans, despite signaling a big idea was coming for months. In the
end, the Tories announced their childcare package at the Budget. “It was so
fucking amateur,” the person said. “They didn’t just shoot our fox, they
machine gunned a whole family of foxes.”
Take some
risks, lads: The overall complaint is that Keir Starmer needs to be bolder and
take some risks, to avoid a contest between two technocrats at the next
election. “If its Sunak the management consultant vs Starmer the management
consultant, Sunak is going to win because he is, in fact, a management
consultant,” the person said.
NOT SO
SOCIAL
CAMPAIGN ON
DRUGS: Rocketing the crime issue to the top of the news agenda as a local
elections gambit / effort to clean up Britain (delete as appropriate) backfired
somewhat when the PM faced the public this morning. After announcing that
laughing gas will be banned, the audience grilling Rishi Sunak in Essex weren’t
too impressed and wanted to know when real crimes like er … burglaries and
thefts might end up being solved.
Ouch: One
member of the public said the Conservatives had “dropped the ball a little bit”
on crime and that laughing gas is the least of their problems.
Not to
mention: The government wasn’t too clear about its rationale for banning the
canisters for recreational use. Sunak said people were “sick of having to deal
with nitrous oxides canisters when they’re walking through their communities,”
which sounds more like a litter problem than a crime problem.
Another
attempt: Home Office Minister Chris Philp told broadcasters there was “emerging
evidence” of medical harm from laughing gas, although the Advisory Council on
the Misuse of Drugs said the current health harms didn’t warrant a
reclassification of the drug.
Nevertheless:
At the Downing Street press briefing this morning, a spokesman for Sunak said
all drugs are a “scourge” on Britain with negative societal impacts, ruining
neighborhoods and making people feel unsafe. He insisted sending police chasing
after laughing gas users won’t be a distraction for cops unable right now to
police other crimes and won’t sap their resources — seeing as the Tories are
recruiting 20,000 more police officers (Labour argue of course that they’re
just replacing the ones Conservative governments cut.)
For what
it’s worth: Announcing the anti-social behavior action plan in the Commons,
Home Secretary Suella Braverman said she was “proud of what Conservatives have
achieved since 2010.” She said overall crime (other than fraud) is down 50
percent, while neighborhood crime is down 48 percent.
Of course:
Seeing as both parties are doing their best to look like crime fighters ahead
of the local elections, Labour has also come out in favor of a laughing gas
ban, which hasn’t gone down too well in some Labour quarters.
Indeed:
“That the government is willing to ignore the evidence and waste more police
time and public money is no surprise,” said Jay Jackson, a secretariat member
of the Labour Campaign for Drug Policy Reform and a campaigner at the Transform
Drug Policy Foundation. “But Labour’s decision to support the [nitrous oxide]
ban is unconscionable. Keir Starmer — as a former DPP — should be advocating
for evidence based drug policies focused on public health, and avoiding the disastrous
consequences of criminalization.”
He added:
“Instead, to the delight of drugs gangs across the country who will soon have a
new revenue stream, he’s engaging in a puerile, macho contest to look the
‘toughest’ on laughing gas.”
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DRIVETIME
DEBRIEF
SALTY CRISP
MAN: Football pundit Gary Lineker told centrist fleece-wearing podcast The Rest
is Politics that the government — whether Conservative or Labour — “cannot
decide who the chairman of the BBC is” if the broadcaster is to maintain its
impartial credentials. Listen here.
KEEP CALM
AND CARRY ON EARNING: Rishi Sunak has no plans to change the second jobs rules
for MPs which currently allow characters like Matt Hancock and Kwasi Kwarteng
to hawk themselves out for £10,000 a pop, a spokesman for the PM told
journalists at the morning press briefing.
Light
shade: The spokesman said the first job of an MP is to serve their
constituents, but that MPs having second jobs can be valuable. He wouldn’t
comment on whether advising companies for bonkers, inflated fees was valuable
to parliament, but noted the new rule that bans MPs from accepting paid work as
parliamentary strategists. That hasn’t stopped MPs taking up new advice jobs.
LONG WAY TO
GO: The public doesn’t think Rishi Sunak is doing too well with his five
pledges, according to this YouGov poll.
REPRIEVE:
Conservative MP Theo Clarke has been reselected after appealing to her local
Conservative group following her deselection. More from the Telegraph’s Chris
Hope here.
WHAT THE
GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Ministers announced a £90 million allocation to
build or renovate youth facilities … while new NHS numbers showed the number of
people waiting over 18 months for NHS care has fallen again.
STILL TO
COME: Policy Exchange hosts a panel event exploring the future of vaccines
policy featuring former Health Secretary Sajid Javid and U.K. Health Security
Agency chief exec Jenny Harries, in-person and online from 6 p.m.
Still to
come II: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivers a keynote speech at
the London School of Economics, also at 6 p.m.
AROUND THE
WORLD
IN ISRAEL:
Israel’s biggest labor union group has triggered one of the most widespread
strikes in the country’s history aiming to paralyze the economy and halt Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial judicial reforms. Bloomberg reports
the Airports Authority grounded all outbound flights, with walkouts at ports
and major retailers. Piers Morgan speaks to Netanyahu tonight at 8 p.m. on
TalkTV.
IN BELGIUM:
EU ministers are expected to approve a draft deal on emissions standards for
cars tomorrow, having reached an agreement with Germany over the weekend. The
Guardian details an EU law that all cars sold from 2035 must produce zero
emissions “will be voted unchanged, including by Germany” on Tuesday.
IN
SLOVENIA: Thousands of farmers in Slovenia have protested against EU green laws
in large-scale tractor protests reminiscent of those affecting Dutch politics.
The Telegraph says organizers warned the government they would step up the
protests unless it agreed to meet the farmers.
IN AMERICA:
The governor of Mississippi warned more severe weather could be on its way to
the state following tornadoes which killed 26 people. The BBC has the story.
**A message
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with it. It includes parental controls for YouTube and the YouTube Kids app
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their age, whether that’s cartoons or science experiments. Learn more about
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TONIGHT’S
MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE
NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) focuses on phone hacking and the
surprise courtroom appearance of Prince Harry … BBC News at Six leads on the
SNP leadership result live from Edinburgh … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) leads on
the SNP leadership announcement from Edinburgh with reports on Jeremy Corbyn
from London.
Tom
Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Former BBC Scotland political editor
Brian Taylor and former SNP Westminster Leader Ian Blackford (both 5.05 p.m.) …
‘Our Israel’ NGO founder Yaya Fink (5.35 p.m.).
BBC PM
(Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Political scientist John Curtice … Scottish Labour Leader
Anas Sarwar … Former Labour Home Secretary Jack Straw … Historian and
philosopher Yuval Noah Harari.
News Hour
(Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond (5.30 p.m.) …
Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar (6.30 p.m.) … Israeli Labor party leader
Merav Michaeli (6.45 p.m.).
Drive with
John Pienaar (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): SNP MP Kirsty Blackman and Shadow Scottish
Secretary Ian Murray (both 5.05 p.m.) … Onward’s Seb Payne (5.19 p.m.) … NHS
Providers chief executive Julian Hartley (6.15 p.m.) … Tortoise’s politics
editor Cat Neilan and the Telegraph’s Chris Hope (both after 7 p.m.).
Tonight
With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): SNP Shadow Chancellor Stewart Hosie (6 p.m.) …
Former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond (6.10 p.m.).
Farage (GB
News, 7 p.m.): Tory MP Jonathan Gullis … Former Sunday Express editor Martin
Townsend.
Jeremy Kyle
Live (TalkTV, 7 p.m.): Former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond … Reform
U.K.’s Alex Phillips.
Cross
Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): Shadow Communities Secretary Lisa Nandy …
Former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland … Former Keir Starmer aide Ben Nunn …
the Telegraph’s Annabel Denham.
Piers
Morgan Uncensored (TalkTV, 8 p.m.): Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
First
Edition (TalkTV, 10 p.m.): Former BBC Scotland political editor Brian Taylor …
Former Border Force CEO Tony Smith … Labour’s Shadow Scottish Secretary Ian
Murray.
Newsnight
(BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland.
REVIEWING
THE PAPERS TONIGHT: TalkTV (10 p.m.): POLITICO’s Jack Blanchard and Tory MP
Caroline Nokes … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Guardian’s Pippa
Crerar and the Sun’s Harry Cole.
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