The U.S.
Elections
Germany Looks Across the Atlantic with Anxiety
and Hope
Even as a Biden victory seems increasingly likely,
German political leaders are biting their nails. Four more years of Trump, many
of them worry, could be disastrous for the trans-Atlantic relationship.
By Severin
Weiland und Christoph Schult
05.11.2020,
15.39 Uhr
German
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas had been scheduled to address reporters on
Wednesday afternoon together with his Greek counterpart Nikos Dendias. But the
press conference was cancelled at the last minute.
Why? Because
of events on the other side of the Atlantic. With the race between U.S.
President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden still undecided,
Maas wanted to avoid being in a position of having to comment on the election.
In the
early evening, he admitted as much on Twitter: It was too early to comment on
the vote count in the United States. "Turnout was high, unfortunately so
too was the polarization. That's why it is important that all politicians
establish trust in the election process and results." He said that
patience was necessary, and that America is a strong democracy. "The
country's institutions and its rule of law have proven several times in the
past that they function even under difficult conditions," Maas wrote.
Angela
Merkel's spokesman only said that the chancellor was following developments
closely.
A few hours
earlier, before it became clear that the 2020 presidential election was going
to be a nail-biter, Maas went on German public broadcaster ARD and repeated the
standard diplomatic line: No matter who wins, the trans-Atlantic relationship
must be patched up. "We need each other."
That
remains true. But the German government and the rest of the Berlin political
establishment is now looking across the Atlantic with deep concern. Will the
opportunity even present itself to patch things up? On Thursday morning, it was
looking increasingly like Biden would win, but it remains unclear how far Trump
might go to challenge the results, or even if Biden's apparent lead will hold
up. Few in Berlin can stomach the thought of four more years of Trump. But even
if Biden wins, will the American democracy emerge unscathed from this election
and the last four years of Trump?
Of
particular concern, of course, is Trump's triumphant claims to victory on
Wednesday morning, German time, despite the fact that millions of votes were
left to be counted. He also announced his intention of going to the Supreme
Court to challenge the counting of mail-in ballots. Trump, it would seem, is
continuing to play by his own rules.
"Explosive
Situation"
None of
this should come as a complete surprise, of course. Trump, as everyone knows,
is capable of anything, and he is also only doing what he had threatened to do
in the run-up to the election. Still, now that he is actually pursuing that
course of action, it has still come as a shock to German political leaders.
German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, head of Merkel's Christian
Democratic Union (CDU), said it was an "explosive situation" and that
she was concerned about a "battle over the legitimacy of the
outcome."
Niels
Annen, a state minister in the Foreign Ministry, told DER SPIEGEL that
particularly from partners and allies, there was an expectation that the
fundamental principles of democratic elections be accepted and upheld. But he
also warned Germans to be patient. "For Germany and Europe, it ultimately
doesn't matter if the winner of the U.S. presidential election is decided
today, tomorrow or in two weeks." The most decisive thing, he said, is
that the president "is elected in accordance with the democratic rules and
is accepted by all."
Germany "would face a heightened need to more
decisively defend all that Trump calls into question."
Nobert Röttgen, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee
in the Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament
It is
hardly a secret that Berlin is hoping for a Biden victory. But what if things
turn out differently? The German government has, of course, worked through and
made plans for that scenario. But even if Biden wins, noted Peter Beyer, the
government's trans-Atlantic coordinator, on the eve of the election, there are
high expectations of Germany to take on a more active leadership role. And if
Trump does win, Beyer noted, it wouldn't make life any easier for Merkel.
Norbert
Röttgen, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the German parliament and a
candidate to take over leadership of the CDU, was more vocal. In the event of
four more years of Trump, he expects "an escalation of what we have thus
far experienced." Trump, he warns, would be "completely
unleashed" and Germany "would face a heightened need to more
decisively defend all that Trump calls into question."
On
Wednesday night, Röttgen then went on CNN to speak with Christiane Amanpour and
said it filled him with "great sadness" to see Trump challenge the
basic rules of democracy. He described the incumbent president's behavior as
"awful."
Several
Areas of Concern
The
criticism of Trump coming from Germany is not surprising. Trump has deeply
undermined the German-American relationship from day one. Early on in his
tenure, it was hard for German foreign policymakers to even find someone to
talk to in Washington, a situation not helped by Trump's early-term decisions
to replace his secretary of state and secretary of defense. There has been some
continuity since 2018, when Mike Pompeo took over the State Department, but
that hasn't necessarily helped strengthen trans-Atlantic ties.
Even more
challenging is the fact that Merkel and Trump never managed to find any sort of
productive connection, neither professionally nor personally. For Merkel,
Trump's brand of politics is both abhorrent and difficult to deal with. And
there are several reasons for that:
The U.S.
abandoned the Paris Climate Agreement, with the withdrawal ironically finally
becoming official on Election Day.
The U.S.
backed out of the nuclear deal with Iran.
Since the
beginning of his term in office, Trump has been insisting that America's NATO
allies increase their defense spending, particularly Germany. In the summer, he
announced his intention to pull 12,000 U.S. soldiers out of Germany.
Trump has
issued several threats to slap punitive tariffs on the German automobile
industry.
Work on the
natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 has been suspended for more than nine months
because the U.S. has threatened companies working on the project with
sanctions.
The
Democrats, of course, are likely to send a similar message on some of those
issues, including the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and even the Iran deal. Still,
German political leaders are almost certain that a Biden victory will result in
an improvement in the trans-Atlantic climate.
"Europe would have to come closer together"
and "defend itself from the Trump regime."
Martin Schulz, former president of the European
Parliament
Plus, the
German foreign policy establishment is familiar with Biden's advisers since
many of them worked for former U.S. President Barack Obama and for Hillary
Clinton when she was Secretary of State. "There are excellent
contacts," said Peter Wittig, former German ambassador to the U.S., on the
German broadcaster RTL. Nils Schmid, a foreign policy expert with the
center-left Social Democrats, says that if Biden were to win, he expects
"a strong signal to Europe" right at the beginning of his presidency.
The EU and
the "Trump Regime"
Röttgen of
the CDU tends to agree. "One thing would change immediately: We would once
again treat each other sensibly." But Röttgen also warns that areas of
conflict will remain no matter what, specifically mentioning Nord Stream 2 and
U.S. demands for more defense spending in Berlin. Still, most foreign policy
experts in Berlin believe that the challenges would be much smaller with Biden
in the White House.
Jürgen
Hardt, another foreign policy expert with the CDU, said on German television
that he has recently been assured by his Republican counterparts in Washington
that Trump would take a different approach to foreign policy in his second
term. Trump, he says he was told, wants to go down in history as a "good
president." Hardt, though, said on the show that he "wasn't
convinced."
Former SPD
chairman Martin Schulz, who ran against Angela Merkel in the last German
election, was more pointed in comments made during DER SPIEGEL's election night
coverage. Trump, he said, "doesn't give a shit" about international
relations. Schulz, who was also president of European Parliament for many
years, said that if Trump were to win, Europe would have to "come closer
together" and "defend itself from the Trump regime."
European
unity, though, is anything but a given these days, as could be seen on
Wednesday afternoon. Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša, a right-wing
nationalist, prematurely congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory.
"It's pretty clear that American people have elected @realDonaldTrump
@Mike_Pence for #4moreyears," he wrote on Twitter.
The German
right-wing populists with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party agreed. AfD
foreign policy specialist Armin-Paulus Hampel said the atmosphere within the
party on Wednesday afternoon was cheerful and relaxed at the prospect of four
more years of the incumbent.
Proving
that even in the German parliament, there are those who support Donald Trump.
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