Boris Johnson will get a deal: but it will be a
betrayal of the Brexiters
Polly
Toynbee
This is the moment when he’ll have to accept that
no-deal is a disaster – and break all those fairy-dust promises
Mon 30 Nov
2020 17.40 GMT
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/30/boris-johnson-deal-betrayal-brexiters-no-deal
Ignore the
blustering brinkmanship: there will be a deal between Britain and the EU. This
week, next week or in the final second before the clock strikes 12, this
Brexit-crazed government will sign on the line.
It needs no
crystal ball to foresee a deal. Though this government is disgraceful and
dishonest, it is not certifiably insane. It will not kill off the car industry,
manufacturing, farming, finance and fishing. It will not cut off security and
police relations with Europe. Nor will it want a hard border in Ireland,
breaking the Good Friday agreement. And nor will it freeze friendship with the
new US president, nor leave relations with our nearest neighbours and traders
irreparably rancorous.
The
Faragists, and the hardcore MPs in the European Research Group, want that
door-slam, still seeking the forever unattainable sovereignty phantasm. But for
Boris Johnson’s Brexit cabinet, this is the moment of truth. Finally ministers
have to face up to the futility of what they have done: they will struggle to
deny their Brexit idea was a lie, never available. For the Brexiteers,
Johnson’s deal will fail miserably. That’s because any deal would always trade
some of that sovereignty fairy dust for something more tangible – such as no
massive tariff on British beef.
However
hard he bluffs and fibs to disguise the inconvenient truth, Johnson will sign a
deal that agrees to align with EU standards on working rights, animal welfare,
the environment and much else. For any future divergences there will be an
adjudications body, which may or may not be the European court of justice.
Fish will
be reapportioned, with complexity and transitions that try to shield the hard
fact: we took back control of our waters in theory, but gave it up in the same
breath because there is no fishing industry without that vital EU market to buy
more than 70% of our catch. Our 12,000 fisher folk were shamefully exploited as
Brexit visual aids; everyone knew they were destined to be sold down the
Channel. This is the last bitter cod-liver oil pill that UK negotiators are
struggling to swallow, but they will.
Lawbreaking
clauses in the internal markets bill repudiating last year’s EU withdrawal
agreement will be abandoned. The Northern Ireland protocol will stand – so
there will be a border down the Irish Sea, with customs posts. That’s despite
Johnson pledging, “There’s no question of there being checks on goods going
from Northern Ireland to Great Britain or Great Britain to Northern Ireland.”
Those who
shout betrayal will be dead right. Everyone who voted Brexit, or for Johnson,
believing his magical cake-and-eat-it deal was oven-ready will be betrayed. His
party’s manifesto read: “Boris Johnson’s new deal takes the whole country out
of the EU as one United Kingdom.” No, Northern Ireland is left out. And watch
another crack in the union open under an SNP victory in next May’s Holyrood
elections. Betrayed are any who believed last year’s Tory manifesto unicorn:
“Get Brexit done – and we will see a pent-up tidal wave of investment into our
country.”
A deal was
always inevitable because the rules laid out by Margaret Thatcher’s single
market are crystal clear: the more you want to trade with the market, the more
you must conform to it. Johnson will attempt whoops of Waterloo triumph as he
tries to smear lipstick on his pig of a deal. The EU will politely suck lemons,
though Emmanuel Macron may spit back.
Here’s the
verdict from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on the deal, hidden in
annexes and unearthed by Jill Rutter for UK in a Changing Europe. The deal will
cause a 4% drop in GDP. Even the pandemic won’t hide the Brexit hit to
manufacturing and finance, as mountainous red tape includes 270m customs
declarations (as opposed to 55m now) and 50,000 new customs agents. New customs
IT will only go live on 23 December; road hauliers have no handbooks; lorry
parks are unfinished. No wonder the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was silent on
Brexit in his spending review last week.
All
ministers have been forced to look over the no-deal abyss. That’s why they know
they face the worst of all worlds: they will eat their words and betray fellow
Brexiters, yet still carpet-bomb the country’s economy.
Labour must
hose down victory cheers for this deal with an icy shower of contempt.
Naturally, Labour says it will examine the deal first. But then Keir Starmer
must forensically shred its several-hundred pages. Those arguing that voting
for it might bring back “red wall” seats are fighting the last war: voting for
it is to own it, and its effects will be painfully clear by the next election.
David Cameron backed the Iraq war and it hamstrung his later attacks on its calamitous
consequences.
As shadow
Brexit secretary, Starmer laid out six tests. The key demand was to meet the
Tories’ pledge to deliver the “exact same benefits” we get from the single
market and customs union.
The
upcoming deal will spectacularly fail that test: voting for it risks Starmer’s
reputation for straight-dealing. The border chaos, shortages on shelves, even
medicines delayed may last for months, but the OBR and Bank of England have
exposed deeper damage to come. Looking back, it will seem clear that an
opposition should have opposed it. Abstention is not pusillanimous, but the
only honourable option.
And there’s
also the possibility that Johnson’s delays might mean a deal comes too late for
parliament to vote on it. So at the very least, Labour should not decide how to
vote until it sees the bill.
Of course,
Labour could be obliged to vote for it and save the nation if a humiliated
Johnson can’t stop his MPs voting it down. But that’s unlikely; and to vote for
this atrocious deal in any other circumstance would be Starmer’s first serious
mistake.
Polly
Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
5 signs this is the real Brexit crunch (and 4
that it isn’t)
After weeks of false hope an EU-UK trade deal was
imminent, this week finally could be the week.
BY EMILIO
CASALICCHIO AND BARBARA MOENS
November
30, 2020 9:50 pm
https://www.politico.eu/article/five-signs-this-is-the-real-brexit-crunch-and-four-that-it-isnt/
LONDON —
Brexit-watchers are used to "crunch" weeks coming to nothing.
Most weeks
since the European Council summit in October — which the U.K. insisted was a
deadline, before it wasn't — have been tipped as the week a deal could be done.
But still negotiations continue.
This week,
however, could be different. There are numerous signs suggesting a deal could
come together in the next few days, and a feeling among observers that things
are finally getting serious.
POLITICO
has rounded up some of the indications that this could be the week ... plus a
few that suggest this saga will roll on once again.
1. Both
sides are pointing to this week
Politicians
and officials on both sides say things are coming to a head. "I do think
that this is a very significant week," Dominic Raab told the BBC at the
weekend. "The last real major week subject to any further postponement, in
terms of the timing."
Numerous EU
figures have flagged this week as the one to watch, arguing the ratification
process becomes complicated otherwise. Getting a deal approved by national and
regional parliaments — which would be needed if the EU determines the final
deal is a so-called "mixed agreement" — is no longer possible. But
even ratification by the U.K. and European Parliaments plus sign-off by EU
countries — the process if its scope is judged to only cover competences
assigned to Brussels — is becoming increasingly difficult.
2. An
actual deadline looms
There's
just one month to go until the Brexit transition period ends. The deadline for
the end of talks can be put off but cannot end up in 2021 without the two sides
falling off a cliff edge and tariffs kicking in.
Britain
will be out of the single market and customs union on January 1 and
negotiations after its departure could be a different ball game. Both sides
want to avoid the imposition of tariffs. So ratification claims aside,
something needs to happen before December 31, and time is running short.
3. The
timetable has gone out the window
Talks are
at such a crunch stage that the formal agenda for what will be discussed has
been scrapped, with both sides taking each day as it comes, a U.K. official
told POLITICO's London Playbook.
When formal
negotiating rounds began, timetables were made public, showing exactly what
would be discussed and when. That feels like a long time ago now. Talks also
stretched late into the night on Sunday, Downing Street confirmed.
4. An offer
on fish
The row
over fish is finally getting a little more light as well as heat. Last week,
RTE's Tony Connelly reported that the EU was offering that up to 18 percent of
the fish quota in U.K. waters currently allocated to EU27 fleets be restored to
the U.K.
Brussels
quickly insisted it was one of a number of ideas floating around and a U.K.
official dismissed it as "derisory." The British fishing industry
agreed that the alleged offer was nowhere near good enough, but saw hope in the
move. "The gesture, if true, is significant because it indicates a
movement away from the very inflexible negotiating mandate they set for
themselves," said Barrie Deas, chief executive of the National Federation
of Fishermen's Organizations.
Meanwhile,
Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney on Monday began debating who should have
right of access to fish based on where they originate and live — a public
indication that the EU might be willing to base quota decisions on so-called
"zonal attachment." That's a core demand from the U.K., which
allocates quotas based on where fish stocks live instead of starting from
baselines set out in historical agreements. EU officials have accepted this
position behind the scenes for months, but the public comments suggest the
rubber is hitting the road in the negotiating room.
The EU
dismisses the suggestion, alluded to in London, that fish is the real sticking
point, and instead insists the so-called "level playing field" rules
designed to ensure British business can't undercut the bloc while retaining
access to the EU market are the crucial element. This difference in emphasis
between the two sides on the real sticking points suggests both sides may be
preparing to compromise.
5. Business
pressure
Firms on
both sides are getting extra nervous and piling the pressure on politicians to
come up with solutions. The less time there is between a deal and the end of
the transition, the less time companies have to prepare for changes.
BusinessEurope
last week issued a cry for help, arguing in a statement that, after the
coronavirus shock, nations "cannot afford another major disruption caused
by a no-deal situation," and adding: "It is time to conclude an
agreement."
On the U.K.
side, firms have been tearing their hair out about the lack of information
about the future, while business leaders have urged the EU to phase in its
border controls to ease the end of the transition.
Meanwhile,
the war of words between the U.K. and the haulage industry appears to have been
put aside, as all involved knuckle down to make the necessary preparations for
January. One haulage representative said Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove
was listening to concerns more than in recent months.
But but but
...
We've been
here so many times before and there is a fair chance this week will turn out
like all the others and not produce a deal. Here are four arguments for another
dead-end.
1. A
no-deal could shake things up
If the two
sides fail to reach a deal, World Trade Organization rules kick in and tariffs
are required for goods crossing borders. But trade talks could continue in the
hope a better solution could be found.
Some on the
Brussels side think a rupture might focus minds in London. “When they gather
the size of the disruption, they will start knocking on our door soon enough,”
one EU official said. “The logic of international trade negotiations is
relatively simple: size matters.”
London has
suggested in the past that it won't return to talks immediately after a no-deal
exit.
2. No-one
wants to blink first
Both sides
think running the clock down will put greater pressure on the other to cave
first — but neither wants to be the one to walk away from the table.
Taken to
its limits, that could mean a no-deal exit almost by accident. “We might end up
sleepwalking toward the end of the transition period,” the same EU official
said.
3. EU
countries want to step up no-deal preparations
EU
countries are increasing pressure on the European Commission to boost its
no-deal preparation by publishing contingency measures.
“We’re
staying at the table as long as meaningful, but we should really allow no-deal
preparations in parallel,” an EU diplomat said. Cautious of being seen to
undermine the trade talks, the Commission continues to hold off on those plans
but it remains to be seen how long they can ignore the pressure coming from
different capitals.
However,
German Chancellor Angel Merkel cautioned against contingency planning. "I
would wait with it as long as it is possible," she told a videoconference
with European affairs lawmakers from different national parliaments and the
European Parliament. "Instead, we should put all our energy into the final
stage of the negotiations.”
A month is
still a month. While the EU is mulling its options to get around the
ratification issue, talks could go down to the wire. One EU diplomat said there
could be a "tricky, technical" solution found to allow the bloc to
ratify the deal after the transition ends.
If that's
possible, the clock can continue to tick down. All parties lie about the
deadlines in trade deals, and the talks have already gone on longer than the
two sides said they could. Surely they could be squeezed a little further.
Hans
Joachim Von Der Burchard and Shawn Pogatchnik contributed reporting.
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