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EDITORIAL
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A Europa a resgatar as suas raízes e a sua visão
Se o país, lá para o final do ano, puder contar com um
programa de 26 mil milhões de euros para injectar na sua economia e na sua
protecção social, haverá sem dúvidas mais razões para acreditarmos que os danos
da crise serão mais bem e mais facilmente superados
MANUEL CARVALHO
27 de Maio de
2020, 22:02
Os sinais de que
a UE estava disposta a transformar os riscos da pandemia numa oportunidade para
relançar a alma do projecto europeu não eram novos. Num curto espaço de tempo,
o Eurogrupo definiu as regras de um pacote de 540 mil milhões de euros; há
cerca de um mês, o Conselho Europeu aprovou as bases de um programa de
recuperação; mais tarde, Merkel e Macron juntaram-se para defender um programa
com pelo menos 500 mil milhões de euros para conceder subvenções e empréstimos
aos Estados-membros em função das suas necessidades; esta quarta-feira, a
Comissão foi mais longe: propôs uma iniciativa de 750 mil milhões de euros,
financiada por empréstimos, como complemento ao Orçamento europeu, que será
mantido 1,1 biliões de euros. A União poderá dispor de 2,4 biliões de euros
para se reerguer.
Não sabemos ainda
se o cinismo do grupo dos “frugais”, a força dos populismos, as suspeitas
Norte/Sul ou Leste/Oeste vão tornar real a proposta da Comissão. Sabemos, sim,
que a discussão sobre as visões do futuro na União recuperou uma parte
essencial da memória histórica do continente e inspirou-se na visão solidária,
humanista e esperançosa das suas raízes.
Basta ouvir o
discurso de Ursula von der Leyen aos eurodeputados nesta quarta-feira para se
perceber que parece haver um reencontro da Europa consigo própria, com as suas
necessidades e com o seu destino: “Ou enfrentamos o problema individualmente,
deixando países, regiões e pessoas para trás e aceitando uma União de
‘favorecidos’ e de ‘desfavorecidos’, ou percorremos o caminho unidos”.
O caminho
abriu-se, mas ainda falta percorrê-lo. Ainda vamos ter de lidar com os profetas
do antieuropeísmo da extrema-direita, do PCP ou do Bloco a falar em mais
dependência, em oportunismo dos ricos, a fazer contas às transferências
líquidas, ou, provavelmente, a considerar que esta resposta europeia é um tiro
de “pressão de ar”.
Certo é que se o
país, lá para o final do ano, puder contar com um programa de 26 mil milhões de
euros para injectar na sua economia e na sua protecção social, haverá sem
dúvidas mais razões para acreditarmos que os danos da crise serão mais bem e
mais facilmente superados. Chegará, então, o dia de discutir a forma como se
vai aproveitar esta oportunidade para se reconfigurar o país.
Se se vai apostar
no ambiente, na digitalização, na ciência ou economia real dos que criam
riqueza ou se se persistirá em exclusivo na agenda do conformismo patrocinado
pelo Estado que nos encanta há tantos anos. Mas essa será outra, e sem
dúvida interessante, discussão.
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Ursula von der Leyen’s big gamble with borrowed
money
Commission president tries to square many circles with
€750 billion crisis recovery package.
By DAVID M.
HERSZENHORN AND LILI BAYER 5/27/20, 9:10 PM CET Updated 5/27/20, 11:02 PM CET
It's Ursula
von der Leyen's €750 billion bet: that economic damage from the coronavirus
crisis is so devastating, EU countries will take a huge leap of faith and
effectively sign up for a joint credit card.
By
proposing a €750 billion recovery fund, using borrowed money to be repaid over
30 years, the European Commission president is wagering that national capitals
will put aside any misgivings, and not only agree to the novel financing
mechanism to get EU economies back on their feet, but also cut a fast deal on a
€1.1 trillion, seven-year budget that will secure resources for her priorities,
including fighting climate change and promoting digital transformation.
Skeptics of her plan — especially the leaders of
Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden — argue von der Leyen is welcome
to gamble her presidency as she likes, but not using their taxpayers' money.
Fierce negotiations now lie ahead.
Much of von
der Leyen's presentations on Wednesday, as well as briefings by commissioners
and other officials, seemed tailored to convincing those skeptics, the
so-called frugal four, that there is not as much to fear in her proposals as
they anticipated.
Appearing
first in the European Parliament, where she arrived wearing a white face mask
and spoke to a largely empty chamber with MEPs scattered for social distancing,
then at the Commission where she fielded questions from reporters connected via
an interactive videoconference platform, von der Leyen insisted that the
drastic economic downturn required an extraordinary response. But she said it
would not permanently change how the EU manages member countries' money.
"This is a completely new concept and a new step
forward ... The crisis is so huge, we have to take unusual steps" — Ursula
von der Leyen, European Commission president
The result,
at times, was a series of seemingly contradictory statements.
She billed
her plan, called Next Generation EU, as revolutionary, but insisted it was not
a new normal.
The
Commission proposed help for business and industries, such as the aviation
sector, but also proposed levying a new tax on big companies.
Von der
Leyen presented her proposal as the best possible package — €500 billion in
grants; €250 billion in loans — but admitted those amounts, and even the
overall size of the recovery fund, will be up for negotiation with the EU's 27
heads of state and government. The entire EU would issue bonds, guaranteed by
national commitments to the bloc's budget, and would repay the debt jointly,
but this should not be viewed as "debt mutualization."
"This
is a completely new concept and a new step forward," von der Leyen said at
one point, adding: "The crisis is so huge, we have to take unusual
steps."
But in
response to questions, she also said: “This would allow EU member states to
contribute to the next budget at the same level as they currently do.” And she
said of the unprecedented borrowing program, "I want to be clear, this is
one-off and this is an exception."
At least
some of her message appeared to be well-received in the capitals it was aimed
at.
“What we
find positive — not just myself, but the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark — is
that there is a time limit and that the fund will be a one-time emergency
measure and not the first step toward a debt union,” Austrian Chancellor
Sebastian Kurz said in an interview with POLITICO. “Considering that there are
many in Europe who want such a debt union, it’s important to us that this be
clarified in writing once and for all."
Banking on
Merkel and Macron
Von der
Leyen and her team are clearly counting on supporters, especially German
Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, to wield the
political muscle needed to bring all 27 EU countries on board.
Merkel and
Macron last week put forward their own joint proposal for the EU to borrow €500
billion and use it to distribute grants to member countries hit hardest by the
pandemic. But while von der Leyen proposed that same amount in grants and
another €250 billion in loans, she conceded the figure could very well change.
"I
think especially in this exceptional situation where we really need a clear and
strong and united answer to this crisis, this was and is a big step
forward," von der Leyen said, noting that the EU had long used the same
approach in the past to borrow far more modest sums.
Enzo
Amendola, Italy’s minister for European affairs, praised the proposal, calling
it “a solid basis for a successful conclusion to the negotiations.”
And in a
sign that efforts are underway to foster goodwill between north and south
heading into the budget talks, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte tweeted that he
had spoken with his Italian counterpart, Giuseppe Conte, on Tuesday, and he
praised Italy’s recovery efforts.
Von der
Leyen said EU members were already in agreement on broad principles. But some
of the items that are yet to be agreed are hardly trivial.
"To
raise money on the capital market and to channel this through the European
budget is accepted," von der Leyen said. "The discussion is about the
size, and the discussion is about grants and loans."
She added,
"What part is loans? What part is grants, or do we have only grants or
only loans? That will have to be discussed, and I think it's positive that we
are now starting to work with the solution. It will change. In any negotiation,
a concept is partly changed. But I am deeply convinced that is the sound answer
we should give."
Across the
street from the Commission headquarters, Council President Charles Michel and
his team immediately set to work, phoning capitals to gauge reactions to the
proposal, and announcing that EU leaders would hold a summit on June 19,
possibly their first in-person gathering since the pandemic forced countries
into lockdown back in March.
"Everything
should be done to reach an agreement before the summer break," Michel said
in a statement. "Our citizens and businesses have been heavily impacted by
the pandemic. They need targeted relief without delay."
Council
officials said they are analyzing the Commission's proposed recovery fund, as
well as the revised €1.1 trillion core budget plan, in an effort to understand
what they will mean for each of the 27 EU countries.
“We need to
make sure the allocation is fair,” a senior Council official said, noting that
while Italy and Spain suffered the most from the coronavirus, the economic hit
was felt across the entire Continent.
"We
can't just say Italy and Spain and that's it, full stop," the official
said. "It's a psychological issue as well. We have all seen deaths. It's
emotion. You won't be able to avoid that."
According
to figures provided by a Commission official, Italy and Spain would receive by
far the most from the new fund. Rome would be in line for nearly €82 billion in
grants and almost another €91 billion in loans. Madrid is forecast to receive
more than €77 billion in grants and over €63 billion in loans.
For the
Council, and the 27 member countries, numerous technical questions remain to be
answered, including exactly how the Commission has calculated its allocations,
and precisely what cuts have been made to various programs in order to
accommodate some of the new spending.
Quick
analysis suggests that some programs von der Leyen identified as sacred
priorities would in fact end up with budgetary allocations smaller than those
originally proposed, including the Erasmus student exchange program, and many
security and defense initiatives.
Cohesion
programs, for example, which are meant to foster regional development, would be
allocated €323 billion from the EU budget over seven years — less than the €330
billion proposed in 2018 — but would get a top-up of €50 billion from borrowed
funding. Similarly, the Commission is proposing to reduce the EU budget
allocation for the research and innovation program Horizon Europe, but add
€13.5 billion of borrowed money.
Taxing
questions
The
Commission stressed that all the borrowing it has envisioned for the recovery
fund could theoretically be repaid by creating new revenue streams that would
flow directly into EU coffers. National capitals have long resisted allowing
the Commission to create such new "own resources" but von der Leyen
suggested they are more palatable than the alternatives — future spending cuts
or higher national contributions to the EU budget.
Among the
ideas floated were a digital tax, as well as a carbon border tax, or expanding
the EU's Emissions Trading System to increase fees on the aviation and maritime
sectors. The Commission also raised a new idea of a tax on operations of “large
enterprises” but did not provide details of how it might work.
One key change
in the Commission’s proposal is its approach to rebates — reductions to the
amount of money some relatively wealthy member countries, such as the
Netherlands, contribute to the bloc’s budget. The Commission has backed down on
plans to phase them out in the near term — a clear part of its effort to win
over the frugal four.
A Dutch
diplomat said it is too soon to fully evaluate the Commission’s complex
proposal. The Netherlands is still firmly opposed to sharing debt with other EU
nations but wants to find other ways to help with the recovery effort, the
diplomat said.
“Our
position is well known: The starting point is that the Netherlands is willing
to help and wants to cooperate on a European level to fight the crisis,” said
the diplomat. “We want to do this in a way that strengthens member states and
the EU as a whole.” But the diplomat pointed to a joint paper issued by the
four frugal countries calling for “loans for loans, no mutualization of debt,
reforms.”
Commission
officials insisted that the scale and scope of the economic damage from the
pandemic — financial contraction at levels unseen since the Great Depression —
called for extraordinary measures. And they said that a key advantage of von
der Leyen's proposal is that the money borrowed by the EU and distributed as
grants would not add to the national debt load of countries struggling to
recover.
Von der
Leyen herself urged everyone to recognize the historic need for solidarity.
"The current crisis," she said, "is the greatest collective
challenge we have faced since the beginning of the EU."
Matthew
Karnitschnig, Jacopo Barigazzi and Maïa de La Baume contributed reporting.
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