terça-feira, 3 de setembro de 2019

Commons Brexit showdown — watch like a pro The likely rundown for an historic day in the UK parliament.




Commons Brexit showdown — watch like a pro
The likely rundown for an historic day in the UK parliament.

By          JACK BLANCHARD           9/3/19, 9:07 AM CET Updated 9/3/19, 10:11 AM CET

Boris Johnson will hold meetings with Tory rebels in Downing Street Tuesday | Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

LONDON — Anti-no deal MPs plan to introduce legislation today to prevent the U.K. government pursuing a no-deal Brexit. They must first introduce a motion that will allow them to take control of the House of Commons agenda, which is usually in the hands of the government.

Here's how a day of historic parliamentary drama is likely to pan out. As ever, timings are subject to change.

Mid-morning: Labour chief Jeremy Corbyn will host another meeting of opposition leaders in his Commons office as the so-called Rebel Alliance plots tactics ahead of tonight's vote. Alongside Corbyn and his senior aides will be Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, Opposition Chief Whip Nick Brown, Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer and Shadow Leader of the Commons Valerie Vaz. Attendees from other parties will include SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson, Plaid Cymru Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts, TIG for Change leader Anna Soubry and Green Party's Caroline Lucas.

Also mid-morning: Boris Johnson will hold meetings with Tory rebels in Downing Street, as he tries to pick off their numbers one by one.

11 a.m.: Briefing for lobby hacks from Downing Street on the latest developments with Brexit, the general election and — naturally — the PM's new dog. Luckily for democracy, the BuzzFeed Fun Police will be keeping a close eye on journalists to make sure every question strikes a suitably solemn tone. Anyone cracking jokes will be chewed up and turned into clickbait before the afternoon is out.

2.30 p.m.: The Commons returns from its six-week summer recess with an hour of FCO questions. It will be Raab's first outing at the dispatch box as foreign secretary, and we can expect a combative session. But let's face it — this is the calm before the storm.

3.30 p.m.: Lib Dem Jane Dodds sworn is as parliament's newest MP, swelling the Rebel Alliance numbers by one.

3.32 p.m.: Assuming there are no Urgent Questions, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will take the floor to make a Commons statement on his attendance at the G7 summit. But before he does so keep a close eye on Commons Speaker John Bercow, who may just seek to bag his own moment in the limelight with a few stern words about the PM's decision to prorogue parliament next week. We may also get points of order raised by MPs seeking to make a point about the current power struggle. Once Johnson's statement is out of the way, expect an angry rebuttal from Corbyn, who is bound to take him to task over both prorogation and no deal in a speech designed to be clipped on social media ahead of the looming election campaign. Then the floor gets thrown open to backbench MPs for a couple of hours of angry debate.

5.30 p.m.: Timings now are a guess, but around this point Bercow is likely to bring the curtain down on the PM's statement and give the floor to Michael Gove, the Cabinet minister in charge of no-deal planning, for his update on no-deal preparations. We're expecting Shadow Cabinet Office Minister Jon Trickett to lead for Labour, though that has not yet been confirmed.

6.30 p.m.-ish: Pivotal moment of the day as a leading Rebel Alliance member — we don't yet know who — submits their application under Standing Order 24 for an emergency debate on no deal. At this stage it will be all eyes on the application. By convention, these debates take the form of neutral motions which simply say "this House has considered XXXX" — in other words, no more than a talking shop. But the plan tonight is to put forward something radically different, concluding with a vote to temporarily change Commons rules and give backbenchers control of the order paper Wednesday. The MP making the application has three minutes to make their case in the Commons, and then it's all eyes on Bercow as he makes his historic ruling. If he fails to grant the debate, the Rebel Alliance's game is up. But the widespread expectation is this speaker is prepared to rewrite the Commons rulebook and give the rebels the chance to take control. Expect fury from the government benches if he does so.

6.40 p.m.-ish: Interim as the Commons empties while Tory MP Chris Philp unveils a private member's bill designed to mitigate air pollution. It's an important issue, but in truth this bill is never going to see the light of day. A good chance to make yourself a cuppa and order a takeaway.

7 p.m.-ish: Right back to it as the SO24 debate gets underway. Expect Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer to take center stage. All eyes now on the Tory rebels, as SW1 tries to figure out if the numbers are there to defeat the government.

9.30 p.m. to 10 p.m.: The big vote is expected any time around now. It's possible there will in fact be two votes, if a "closure motion" is required to end the debate. If so, the numbers on each should be exactly the same — you can pretty much guarantee that if the rebels win the closure motion, they have enough to win the substantive vote too. If they don't, the game is up and it's all systems go for no deal.

10.30 p.m.-ish: The Commons empties (and Stranger's Bar fills up) as senior government and opposition figures take to the airwaves to try to frame what just happened. If the rebels win the day, expect a senior minister to immediately put forward a motion on Wednesday's order paper for a vote on a snap general election on October 14. Then we can all go home for a breather, ahead of another seismic day to come. Phew.

What next? Annabelle Dickson sets the scene ahead of a week of drama.

This article is part of POLITICO’s premium Brexit service for professionals: Brexit Pro. To test our our expert policy coverage of the implications and next steps per industry, email pro@politico.eu for a complimentary trial.

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